Indian Parliamentary Committee Indicts the Department of Pharmaceuticals

Posted on June 4, 2012 by Tapan Ray

The Department Related Parliamentary Standing Committee on Health and Family Welfare presented its 58th Report on the action taken by the Government on the recommendations / observations contained in the 45th report to both the Lower and the Upper houses of the Parliament on May 08, 2012.

In this report the Committee examined, besides other important subjects, the issues related to making high quality generic/branded generic medicines, patented and imported products available to the public at affordable prices to reduce ‘out-of-pocket expenses’ of the general population of India, significantly.

The Committee also suggested that the Department of Health and Family Welfare, in coordination with the Department of Pharmaceuticals and with the active involvement of Chief Secretaries of the State Governments should formulate an effective ‘Essential Drug Supply’ policy having the following components:

Encouraging prescription of generic drugs
Adoption of essential drugs list
Adherence to Standard Treatment Guidelines
Ensuring drug procurement through open tender system
Distribution of low cost medicines through Government drugs stores like, ‘Jan Aushadhi’
Demand generation for generic drugs through public awareness program

In addition, the report captured the great concern of the committee on rampant prescription of irrational and useless drugs by many doctors with ulterior motives and expressed the need of inclusion of the essential and lifesaving drugs under strict price regulation.

Parliamentary Report indicts the Department of Pharmaceuticals:

The committee, besides other issues, observed as follows with a strong indictment to the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP):

The DoP seems be in the grip of policy inertia.
‘Lackadaisical approach’ and ‘lack of sense of urgency’ of the DoP to iron out hindrances in establishing required number of ‘Jan Aushadhi’ stores across the country have also resulted in their ‘soft-pedaling’ the issue of intensive promotion of generic drugs through a large number of ‘Jan Aushadhi’ outlets, as was planned by the government.
DoP should shed its ‘indecisiveness’ and take all possible measures to speed up the revival and modernization of Public Sector Pharma Units, so that the all-important objective of access to affordable and quality medicines by all could be realized.
Currently there is no mechanism to regulate the prices of new patented drugs which are imported into the country and sold at ‘super-normal profits’. Committee recommended that India as a sovereign country has every right to determine, for public health interest, prices of all drugs which are sold in the open market, by putting in place an effective price control mechanism.
The issue of price regulation of all imported molecules including patented ones being sold in the country at high prices should be addressed by the DoP in the New Pharmaceutical Policy which is currently under finalization.
The DoP should take decisive action, without further delay, in making the ‘Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices (UCPMP)’ mandatory so that effective checks could be ensured on ‘huge promotional costs’ and the resultant add-on impact on medicine prices.
The country holds a strong position in producing generic drugs. Besides, it has a robust distribution network not only in the domestic market but also in other developing and underdeveloped countries of the world. Thus, the Government should make all-out efforts to arrest the trend of acquisition of domestic pharma companies by the multinationals.
The DoP to move the Cabinet for its approval with a sense of urgency for setting up the Central Procurement Agency as an autonomous society, as it can help control drug prices through effective procurement process.

Looking back:

In mid-2008, Government of India had set up a new department under the Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers (MC&F), named the ‘Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP)’. The department was created primarily to have a greater focus on the pharmaceutical sector of India. Historically, issues and policies related to pharmaceutical industry mainly used to be handled by the Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals. A separate Department of Fertilizers still handles all issues related to fertilizers in India. Both the departments were under the MC&F. The then Minister C&F felt that the pharmaceuticals sector has very many critical and complex issues, which are related mainly to pricing, access, availability, R&D, and other international commitments that necessitate integration of work with different ministries. A separate Department for Pharmaceuticals was, therefore, considered necessary to do justice to the pharmaceutical industry of India. The proposal, I reckon, was incubating with the government for quite some time though.

The expectations from DoP:

At that time in 2008, it was widely expected that the DoP will be able to address the following key pharmaceutical industry related issues, with an integrated approach, to strike a right balance between the growth fundamentals of the industry and the Public Health Interest:

A modern, both growth and access oriented, drug policy and pricing mechanism.
Continuous improvement of access to high quality and affordable modern medicines for all.
An efficient drug price regulatory system.
An appropriate ecosystem to encourage R&D and foster pharmaceutical innovation.
Addressing the issue of high ‘out of pocket expenses’ of the general population towards medicines in particular and healthcare in general.
Facilitating fiscal and tax incentives required by the Micro-Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) within the pharmaceutical industry of India to further drive its growth.

As stated above, all these will necessitate a close coordination and integration of work of various departments falling under different ministries of the government, DoP being the nodal department.

The Objectives of the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP):

Be that as it may, following are the stated objectives of the DoP, as mentioned in the Results-Framework Document (RFD 2011-12) of the DoP:

Ensure availability of drugs at reasonable prices as per the Pharma policy
Facilitate growth of Central pharma PSUs with required support
Develop Pharma Infrastructure and Catalyze Drug Discovery and Innovation
Launch and Position Pharma India Brand
Develop Pharma Human Resources through M.Pharma and Ph.D programs in NIPERS
Provide Infrastructure and staff for new NIPERs
Strengthening of NIPER Mohaili
‘Jan Aushadhi Campaign’ and implementation of Business Plan for setting up of 3000 ‘Jan Aushadhi’ Stores (upto Subdivision level in the country)
Incentivizing Private Sector for development of new Drugs for diseases endemic to India

It appears, the current performance of the DoP even against their stated objectives as mentioned in RFD 2011-12, has prompted the Parliamentary Committee to make the above harsh comments.

A look at ‘Jan Aushadhi’ – a scheme conceived with a great purpose:

Before going into the reasons for lackluster performance of this scheme, let us look at the following objectives of scheme as set out by the DoP:

1. To promote awareness for cost effective quality generic medicines. (However, how exactly this will be done, is yet to be known.) 2. To make available unbranded affordable quality generic medicines through Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives. (I would support this objective may be from procurement perspective. However, so far as the delivery of these medicines to the common man is concerned, I would still argue: why do we reinvent the wheel?) 3. To encourage doctors in the Government Hospitals to prescribe such cost effective quality generic medicines. (This is again just a statement of good intent without considering the critical issue of its implementation in the predominantly branded generic market of India.) 4. To help patients save significantly towards medicines costs with ‘Jan Aushadhi’ outlets. 5. A national help line to increase awareness level of this initiative. The statement of intent of the DoP also highlights that the State Governments, NGOs and Charitable bodies will be encouraged to set up such generic medicine shops across the country. It also states that the existing outlets of the Government and NGOs may also be used for this cause.

Arguing for the need of a course correction for ‘Jan Aushadhi’ scheme: It now appears that the ‘Jan Aushadhi’ scheme of the DoP may not ultimately be able to achieve its cherished goals and is perhaps destined to go into the history as yet another good intention of the Government, if a course correction is not made forthwith in the right direction. The main issue in improving access to affordable quality medicines for the common man with ‘Jan Aushadhi’ scheme does not lie in the conceptualization of this ‘Public Health’ project, where the Government is pretty good at, armed with the support of a good number of brilliant bureaucrats. The problem in translating this laudable idea into reality, I reckon, lies not only in the understanding of the critical barriers to the project, but also in making out the key drivers of the same.

Key barriers:

In my opinion, following two are the key barriers to the success of ‘Jan Aushadhi’ scheme:

Cost-effective procurement of quality medicines in adequate quantity
An effective delivery mechanism involving state government, NGOs and various other related bodies.

Cost effective procurement:

As recommended by the Parliamentary Committee, the DoP should move the Cabinet for its urgent approval to set up a Central Procurement Agency for cost effective procurement of quality medicines and at the same time encourage the state governments to do the same at respective state level.

No need to ‘reinvent the wheel’ – An effective delivery system already exists:

The DoP should explore possibilities of using the existing Government Public Delivery Systems to ensure cost effective easy access and availability of such medicines to the common man after tightening the loose knots wherever exist. There does not seem to be any dire need to ‘reinvent the wheel’ in this particular case.

Two grossly underutilized Government controlled ‘Public Distribution Systems’: The Government of India has following two very unique product distribution and delivery systems within the country with deep penetration from metro cities to far-flung rural areas: 1. Public Distribution System (PDS) : Called Ration shops and is currently used for public distribution of food grains and other essential commodities.

2. Indian Post Offices (IPO): This establishment is currently adding many other products, besides postal services, for effective distribution to the public

Quite like food grains, medicines are also essential items. Why does DoP not collaborate with PDS/Ration Shops and IPOs through appropriate ministries to ensure easy availability and access to essential medicines by the common man?

This assumes even greater significance, when the Postal Department, as mentioned above, has already started collaborating with various other agencies to sell and distribute many types of products in rural areas through IPO network. In that case, what prevents the DoP to consider this alternative, as well?

In fact, I would strongly recommend the usage of both PDS and IPOs by the DoP for deeper penetration of ‘Jan Aushadhi’ across the country, especially for those who do not have adequate access to affordable modern essential medicines.

I am aware that the question of ‘in-efficiency’ of these systems may be raised by many in India. However, at the end of the day who is responsible to make these systems efficient? People responsible for managing a system are usually held accountable for its ‘efficiency’ or ‘inefficiency’. It is about time that the government fixes strict accountability in these areas too.

We have currently many excellent minds in the DoP, I hope, they may wish to explore the possibility of effectively utilizing these two already available state controlled mass distribution systems to ensure proper access and availability of “Jan Ausadhi” drugs to the common man”.

An intriguing observation in the Report:

It is indeed difficult to fathom the robustness of the reasoning of both the Parliamentary Committee and the DoP for the revival of the sick and loss making Public Sector Pharmaceutical Units in the country.

As stated above, the very second objective of the DoP also articulates as follows:

“Facilitate growth of Central pharma PSUs with required support”.

This is indeed quite baffling.

Everyone knows that all these PSUs created at the expense of tax payers’ money, miserably failed to perform time and again, despite receiving all such incentives from the government umpteen number of times, even when the Indian pharmaceutical industry has been growing at a scorching pace, decade after decade.

Thus I wonder what magic wand the Government will wield now to be able to turn around these loss making and heavily bleeding PSUs from continuous non-performance and utter failure in governance and that too in the prevailing environment of fierce competitive pressure within the industry.

Considering all these, will the decision of pouring in even more money from the national exchequer’s fund into the bottomless pits of these loss making PSUs currently under dangerous tail spins fetch any dividend at all for the common man?

I reckon, if these PSUs still attract interest of some good private buyers/investors with reasonable valuation, the government should unhesitatingly decide to unlock these values, sooner the better.

Conclusion:

Not so long ago, in July 25, 2011 a news item reported, “Department of Pharmaceuticals moots National Authority for Drugs & Therapeutics (NADT) with Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) under it”.

If I recall, some years ago, another taskforce appointed by the Government suggested integration of the offices of the DCGI, CDSCO and NPPA along with all their powers and functions to ensure adequate availability and access to high quality medicines at affordable prices for the population of the country.

Nothing has fructified, as yet, in this direction. However, it appears from all such recommendations of various task forces that a strong desire to create powerful silos has perhaps assumed higher priority of the relevant players engaged in this ball game. Failure to deliver the deliverables for public health interest almost on a continuous basis by spending national exchequers money has become more a routine than exceptions.

That said, there seems to be a silver lining catching some eyeballs in this whole process. Some brilliant minds that the government now has in the DoP, I hope, will be able to turn around the situation to everybody’s satisfaction, sooner than later.

By: Tapan J Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

“Indian Drug Regulator Accords Primacy to Pharma Industry Instead of Safegurding Public Health and Safety” – Parliamentary Committee

Posted on May 28, 2012 by Tapan Ray

The Department Related Parliamentary Committee on Health and Family Welfare presented its 59^th Report of 118 pages in total on the functioning of the Indian Drug Regulator – the Central Drug Standards Control Organization (CDSCO) in both the houses of the Parliament on May 08, 2012.

Regulations and the Regulator for the Pharmaceutical Industry of India – A snapshot:

The pharmaceutical industry in India is regulated, broadly, in the following ways:

Drugs and Cosmetics Act of India 1940 together with Drugs and Cosmetics Rules regulate the Pharmaceutical Industry across the country for all types of drugs, irrespective of the fact whether these are locally produced or imported from other countries of the world.
The office of the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) is primarily responsible for effective enforcement of most of these laws and rules across the country.
All issues related to clinical trials, product approval and standards, import licenses and introduction of new drugs are the direct responsibilities of the DCGI’s office.
Health being a state subject in India, on the ground, Foods and Drugs Administrations (FDA) of the State Governments enforce laws related to approvals for setting up pharmaceutical production facilities and obtaining licenses to stock and sell drugs in their respective states.
A valid license from the Drug Regulator is necessary for location-wise manufacturing of each type of drugs in the country with a mandatory requirement of periodic renewal of such licenses, as specified therein.

A key point to ponder from the Report:

The report begins with the following observations:

Medicines apart from their critical role in alleviating human suffering and saving lives have very sensitive and typical dimensions for a variety of reasons. They are the only commodity for which the consumers have neither a role to play nor are they able to make any informed choices except to buy and consume whatever is prescribed or dispensed to them because of the following reasons:

Drug regulators decide which medicines can be marketed
Pharmaceutical companies either produce or import drugs that they can profitably sell
Doctors decide which drugs and brands to prescribe
Consumers are totally dependent on and at the mercy of external entities to protect their interests.

In this prevailing condition, the committee felt that effective and transparent drug regulation, free from all commercial influences, is absolutely essential to ensure safety, efficacy and quality of drugs keeping just one objective in mind, i.e., welfare of patients.

Quite in congruence with this critical requirement the Committee examined in detail the functioning of CDSCO, which includes the office of the DCGI, as well, to ascertain whether applicable rules and laws are being implemented efficiently and honestly for the best interest of patients by the Drug Regulator of India.

Why is the ‘Mission Statement’ of CDSCO industry oriented and not patient focused?

Very interestingly, the report highlights with the following examples, how out of line the ‘Mission Statement’ of CDSCO is as compared to the same of other countries by being blatantly industry oriented instead of safeguarding Public Health and safety:

	Drug Regulator	The ‘Mission Statement’
1	CDSCO, India	Meeting the aspirations…. demands and requirements of the pharmaceutical industry.
2.	USFDA, USA	Protecting the public health by assuring the safety, efficacy, and security of human and veterinary drugs.
3.	MHRA, UK	To enhance and safeguard the health of the public by ensuring that medicines and medical devices work, and are acceptably safe.
4.	TGA, Australia	Safeguarding public health & safety in Australia by regulatingMedicines…

Consequently, the Committee took a very strong exception for such utter disregard and continued neglect of patients’ interest by the Drug Regulator of India and recommended immediate amendment of the ‘Mission Statement’ of CDSCO incorporating in very clear terms that the existence of the organization is solely for the purpose of protecting the best interest of patients and their safety. It is needless to say that thereafter, it will require stringent conformance with the same with high precision.

Some very critical findings:

The committee in its report made the following critical findings, besides others:

“A total of 31 new drugs were approved in the period January 2008 to October 2010 without conducting clinical trials on Indian patients.
Thirteen drugs scrutinized by the panel are not allowed to be sold in the United States, Canada, Britain, European Union and Australia.
Sufficient evidence is available on record to conclude that there is collusive nexus between drug manufacturers, some functionaries of CDSCO and some medical experts.
When it comes to approving new drugs, too much is left to the absolute discretion of the CDSCO officials.
The Central Government can either issue directions under Section 33P to states to withdraw the licenses of FDCs granted without prior DCGI approval or the Central Government can itself ban such FDCs under Section 26A.
Though the Ministry is forming Drug Approval Committees, which are given very important powers, there is no transparent procedure for the selection of experts of such Committees.
Accurate information on drugs for patients is absolutely essential to prevent inappropriate use more particularly in children, elderly, during pregnancy and lactation.
Due to the sensitive nature of clinical trials in which foreign companies are involved in a big way and a wide spectrum of ethical issues and legal angles, different aspects of Clinical trials need a thorough and in-depth review.”

The Report named some pharmaceutical companies:

While arriving at these points, the report indicted some pharmaceutical companies, both national and international as follows (in alphabetical order):

	Company		Company		Company
1.	Bayer	8.	Lundbeck	15.	Ranbaxy
2.	Cipla	9.	Macleods	16.	Sanofi
3.	Centaur	10.	Mars	17.	Sun Pharmaceuticals
4.	Emcure	11.	Merck	18.	Themis
5.	Eli Lilly	12.	Novartis	19.	Theon
6.	GlaxoSmithKline	13.	Pharmacia (acquired by Pfizer)	20.	UCB
7.	Hetero	14.	Phamasset Inc. (a subsidiary of Gilead)	21.	Venus

A scathing remark against CDSCO:

The report made the following scathing remarks on CDSCO in its point 2.2:

“The Committee is of the firm opinion that most of the ills besetting the system of drugs regulation in India are mainly due to the skewed priorities and perceptions of CDSCO. For decades together it has been according primacy to the propagation and facilitation of the drugs industry, due to which, unfortunately, the interest of the biggest stakeholder i.e. the consumer has never been ensured.”

Allegation of possible collusion needs to be thoroughly probed:

The report also deliberates not only on the utter systemic failure of CDSCO along with the DCGI’s office to enforce law effectively, but also towards a possible collusion between CDSCO and the pharmaceutical industry to implement a self-serving agenda by hoodwinking the system. This is a very serious allegation, which needs to be thoroughly probed and the findings of which should be made public for everybody’s satisfaction.

Parliamentary Committee Report is a ‘considered advice and of persuasive value’:

Though any report of such Parliamentary Committee has been stated to have a persuasive value and be treated as considered advice given by the Committee, which in this case is to CDSCO, DCGI, Ministry of Health and also the industry.

Some probes already initiated:

Reuters in its publication of May 9, 2012 indicated that this Parliamentary Committee Report has prompted greater scrutiny even from the US regulators, which are reportedly investigating a number of drug companies under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

Initial reports also indicate that both the Indian Government and some large international pharmaceutical companies have announced detail probe based on this report at their respective ends.

Some remedial measures - Mashelkar Committee Recommendations:

Considering all these, besides taking appropriate remedial measures related to Clinical Trials of drugs in India, it is about time to reconsider the recommendations of Dr. R. A. Mashelkar Committee on the subject and make amendments in the Act accordingly to facilitate creation of a ‘Central Drugs Authority (CDA)’ introducing, along with other measures, a centralized licensing system for the manufacture, sale, export and distribution of drugs.

Why does India need CDA?

I firmly believe that the formation of the ‘Central Drugs Authority (CDA)’ will provide the following significant benefits to the Industry and also to the Government for the best interest of public health and safety:

Achieving uniform interpretation of the provisions of the Drugs & Cosmetics Act & Rules
Standardizing procedures and systems for drug control across the country
Enabling coordinated nationwide action against spurious and substandard drugs
Upholding uniform quality standards with respect to exports to foreign countries from anywhere in India
Implementing uniform enforcement action in case of banned and irrational drugs
Creating a pan-Indian approach to drug control and administration
Evolving a single-window system for pharmaceutical manufacturing and research undertaken anywhere in the country.

Conclusion:

As a consequence of the above report of the Parliamentary Committee identifying gross irregularities in the functioning of the CDSCO, the Minister of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) of India Mr. Ghulam Nabi Azad has already announced constitution of a three-member committee to probe into the matter in depth.

Following well-known experts have been named as members of this high powered committee, which will submit its report and recommendations in two months’ time:

Dr. V.M. Katoch: Director General, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR),
Dr. P.N. Tandon: President, National Brain Research Centre
Dr. S.S. Aggarwal: Former Director, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow

The committee has been mandated to:

Examine the validity of the scientific and statutory basis adopted for approval of new drugs without clinical trials
Outline appropriate measures to bring about systemic improvements in the processing and grant of statutory approvals
Suggest steps to institutionalize improvements in other procedural aspects of functioning of the CDSCO

The outcome of the report of this high powered committee, internal probes voluntarily initiated by some pharmaceutical companies and possible implementation of the ‘Mashelkar Committee’ recommendations on the formation of CDA in the country will hopefully bring in some systemic changes in the drug regulatory system of India, for patients’ sake.

By: Tapan Ray

The New Drug Policy of India enters into the final lap of a Marathon Run

Posted on May 21, 2012 by Tapan Ray

Final working out and thereafter announcement of much awaited and long overdue the new ‘Drug Policy’ of India has now entered into a very interesting stage. This is mainly because of the unique combination of the following three key reasons:

1. 2002 Drug Policy was challenged in the Karnataka High Court, which by its order dated November 12, 2002 issued stay on the implementation of the Policy. This order was challenged by the Government in the Supreme Court, which vacated the stay vide its order dated March 10, 2003 but ordered as follows: “We suspend the operation of the order to the extent it directs that the Policy dated 15.2.2002 shall not be implemented. However we direct that the petitioner shall consider and formulate appropriate criteria for ensuring essential and lifesaving drugs not to fall out of the price control and further directed to review drugs, which are essential and lifesaving in nature till 2nd May, 2003”.

2. A live court case on the new draft ‘Drug Policy’ with the ‘essentiality criteria’ for price control is pending before the Supreme Court of India with its next hearing scheduled in the last week of July 2012. In this court case an independent network of several ‘Non-Government Organizations (NGOs)’ known as ‘All India Drug Action Network (AIDAN)’ is arguing against the ‘flawed’ draft ‘National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy 2011 (NPPP 2011)’, mainly on the following grounds:

‘Market Based Pricing (MBP)’ methodology calculated on the ‘Weighted Average Price (WAP)’ of top three brands, as specified in the ‘Draft NPPP 2011’ would not only lead to increase in the prices of medicines, but also legitimize higher drug prices.
To keep the drug prices under check effectively, the ‘Ceiling Prices (CP)’ of Medicines should be based on ‘Cost based Pricing (CBP)’ model rather than MBP.
Adequate control mechanism is lacking in the NPPP 2011 to prevent the manufacturer from avoiding price control by tweaking with the formulations featuring in the National list of Essential Medicine 2011 (NLEM 2011).

3. In this scenario, a Group of Ministers (GoM) of the Union Cabinet has started deliberating on this issue since April 25, 2012 taking all key stakeholders on board to give its recommendations to the Union Cabinet on the scope, form, structure and the basic content of the new Drug Policy.

The bone of contentions:

The methodology and the span of price control of the draft NPPP 2011 have still remained the key bone of contentions for the new ‘Drug Policy’ of India. Suggested three key methodologies: From the responses received on the draft NPPP 2011, it appears that following three are the suggested key methodologies to arrive at the CP of price controlled NLEM 2011 formulations:

Cost Based Pricing
Market based pricing

- WAP of top 3 brands - WAP of bottom 3 brands

The formula suggested by the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of lesser of (i) the price paid by the median consumer + 25% and (ii) price paid by the 80^th percentile consumer.

ARGUMENTS IN FAVOR AND AGAINST OF EACH: A. Cost based Pricing: Besides AIDAN, other reported key supporters of the CBP are the Ministry of Health and All India Chemists Associations. ARGUMENTS IN FAVOR: The current drug price control regime (DPCO 1995) is based on cost-plus pricing model, where Maximum Retail Prices (MRPs) of price controlled formulations are worked out as per the formula given in ‘para 7’ of DPCO, 1995 as follows: R.P. = [M.C. +C.C. +P.M. +P.C.] x [1+MAPE/100] +E.D. Where,

R.P: Retail price
M.C: Material cost, including process loss
C. C.: Conversion cost
P.M: Packing material
P.C: Packing Charges
MAPE : Maximum Allowable Post manufacturing Expenses of 100 percent
E.D.: Excise duty

The proponents of CBP believe that it is:

Transparent
Most beneficial to the patients
Fair, with a decent profit margin allocation for the manufacturers

ARGUMENTS AGAINST: Many others do not believe in CBP. They argue that price-inflation of non-price controlled drugs is much less than the price-controlled ones, which clearly vindicates that market competition works better than price control of drugs and thus is more beneficial to the patients. The following table shows the trend of general inflation against the drug price inflation from 1992 to 2011 period, as follows:

	Type of Inflation	Inflation (in Index)
1.	General Inflation	403
2.	Price-controlled molecules	151
3.	Non Price-Controlled Molecules	112

(Source: IMS data, RBI CPI average yearly inflation) This school of thought quotes the example of discontinuation of manufacturing in India 29 out of 74 Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) under DPCO 1995 due to financial non-viability on account of CBP. Moreover, CBP is considered by them as a process, which is:

Intrusive
Lacking in transparency
Discretionary
Discouraging for innovation, high quality & efficiency
Not followed by any major country in the world
Not supported by even WHO. It says other countries are moving away from Indian type of CBP

B. Market Based Pricing (MBP): MBP in general is considered by its proponents as a system which is:

Transparent
Non-Discretionary
Encourages growth & investment
Rewards innovation
Promotes efficiency

The two variants of MBP under discussion are:

- WAP of top 3 brands

- WAP of bottom 3 brands

ARGUMENTS IN FAVOR:

1. WAP of top 3 brands:

It is a transparent system and will reduce the prices of medicines

With adequate checks and balances in place the method will not lead to increase in prices because of the following reasons:

- All price increases are subject to WPI – Market competition will not permit any price increases – Companies in low-price segments will create pressure to reduce prices further

2. WAP of bottom 3 brands: This group argues that instead of WAP of top 3 brands, if the same for the bottom three brands is considered, ceiling prices will come down very significantly, benefiting patients much more than what WAP of top three brands will do.

ARGUMENTS AGAINST:

1. WAP of top three brands:

Would lead to overall increase in the prices of many medicines
Below ceiling price brands would raise their price upto the ceiling price level immediately
Would legitimize high drug prices

2. WAP of bottom 3 brands:

Not representative of the market, as only the brands with a low market presence will be considered for WAP calculations
The Bottom 3 priced brands factor in only ~17% of the market
Likely to have an adverse overall impact on patients as many small brands with lowest acceptable quality standards will be considered for WAP calculations, which may ultimately push high quality formulations out of the market.

C. Formula suggested by EAC of the Prime Minister: ARGUMENTS IN FAVOR:

Will ensures affordable drug prices for the patients by:

Encouraging and rewarding high market competition
Discouraging monopolistic or oligopolistic market situation

ARGUMENTS AGAINST:

EAC criteria for insufficient competition are based on the 1994 Policy
The situation is different today as the market has grown 9 times since then
The number of brands tends to be low in lower volume turnover molecule segments mainly due to low disease prevalence. Thus bringing these molecules under CBP will be irrational
Instead of implementing CBP where lesser number of brands exists in many generic segments, EAC formula should encourage competition even in these lower value turnover molecule segments to bring the prices further down

That said, ‘Drug Price’ has always remained one of the critical factors to ensure greater access to medicines, especially in the developing economies like India, where predominantly individuals are the payors. This point has also been widely accepted by the international community, except perhaps by the diehard ‘self-serving’ vested interests. Important Points to Ponder:

A. ‘Drug Price’ control alone can not improve access to medicines significantly:

To improve access to medicines, even the Governments in countries like Germany, Spain, UK, Korea and China have recently mulled strict price control measures in their respective countries. However, it is important to note and as we have seen above, though the drug prices are indeed one of the critical factors to improve access to modern medicines, there is a need to augment other healthcare access related initiatives in tandem for a holistic approach.

In India, we have witnessed through almost the past four decades that drug price control alone could not improve access to modern medicines for the common man very significantly, especially in the current socioeconomic and healthcare environment of the country.

B. Taming drug price inflation only has not helped improving access to medicines:

It is quite clear from the following table that food prices impact health more than medicine costs :

Year	Pharma Price Increases	Food Inflation
2008	1.1%	5.6%
2009	1.3%	8.0%
2010	0.5%	14.4%

Source: CMIE Exploring a practical approach: Considering pros and cons of the key methodologies of price control of formulations featuring in NLEM 2011, as I had written in this blog in April 2, 2012, I would like to reemphasize that a middle path with a win-win strategy to resolve this deadlock effectively would be in the best interest of both patients and the industry alike, in the current situation. The middle path, I reckon, may be explored as follows:

Calculate ‘Weighted Average Price’ for each formulation based on prices of all brands – high, medium and low, applying some realistic exclusion criteria.
When inclusion criteria for price control in the draft NPPP 2011 is ‘essentiality’ of drugs, it sounds quite logical that price control should be restricted to NLEM 2011 only.
Enough non-price control checks and balances to be put in place to ensure proper availability of NLEM 2011 drugs for the common man and avoidance of any possible situation of shortages for such drugs.

Conclusion:

Conforming to the directive of the honorable Supreme Court of India on price control of essential medicines in the country, the GoM should now help resolving the issue of putting in place a robust new National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy, without further delay, taking the key stakeholders on board.

In any case, it has to be a win-win solution both for the patients and the industry alike, paving the way for improving access to modern medicines for the entire population of India, together with other strategic initiatives in this direction. This is absolutely essential, especially when medicines contribute around 72 percent of the total ‘Out of Pocket Expenses’ of the common man of the country.

By: Tapan J Ray

Increasing Healthcare Consumption in India with equity

Posted on May 14, 2012 by Tapan Ray

Along with the economic progress of India, healthcare consumption of the population of the country is also increasing at a reasonably faster pace. According to McKinsey India Report, 2007, the share of average household healthcare consumption has increased from 4 per cent in 1995 to 7 per cent in 2005 and is expected to increase to 13 per cent in 2025 with a CAGR of 9 per cent, as follows:

Share of Average Household Consumption (AHC) (%)


	Household Consumption	1995	2005 E	2015 F	2025 F	CAGR %
1.	Healthcare	4	7	9	13	9
2.	Education & Recreation	3	5	6	9	9
3.	Communication	1	2	3	6	12
4.	Transportation	11	17	19	20	7
5.	Personal Products and Services	4	8	9	11	8
6.	Household Products	2	3	3	3	5
7.	Housing & Utilities	14	12	12	10	5
8.	Apparel	5	6	5	5	5
9.	Food, Beverages & Tobacco	56	42	34	25	3

(Source; McKinsey India Report 2007)

From this study, it appears that among all common household consumption, the CAGR of ‘healthcare’ at 9 percent will be the second highest along with ‘education’ and ‘communication’ topping the growth chart at 12 percent.

As per this McKinsey study, in 2025, in terms of AHC for ‘healthcare’ (13 percent) is expected to rank third after ‘Food & Beverages’ (25 percent) and ‘transportation’ (20 percent).

Thus, over a period of time AHC for ‘healthcare’ shows a very significant growth potential in India. Hence, this important area needs much greater attention of the policymakers to help translate the potential into actual performance with requisite policy and fiscal support/incentives.

Sectoral break-up of the Healthcare Industry:

According to IDFC Securities 2010, the sectoral break-up of the US$ 40 billion healthcare industry is as follows:

Industry	%
Hospitals	50
Pharma	25
Diagnostics	10
Insurance & Medical Equipment	15

(Source: IDFC Securities Hospital Sector, November 2010)

Therefore, as per this above report, the top two sectors of the healthcare industry are hospitals with 50 percent share and pharmaceuticals at 25 percent.

Public sector drives the healthcare expenditure in the developed countries:

Almost all OECD countries now provide universal or near-universal health coverage for a core set of health services, which are primarily funded by the public sector.

The report titled, ‘Health at a Glance 2011’ indicates that adjusted for purchasing power parity United States of America (USA) at US$ 7290 per capita expenditure on health in 2007, which is almost two and a half times more than the OECD average of US$ 2984, towers above other OECD countries. However, the same for Turkey and Mexico was less than one-third of the OECD average.

India and South East Asia are different:

Unlike OECD countries, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), in South East Asia, except Thailand and Indonesia, healthcare is primarily driven by private expenditure, as seen in the following table:

Public and Private Expenditure on Health as % of Total

Country	Public %	Private %
Laos	17.60	82.40
Cambodia	23.80	76.20
India	32.40	67.60
Philippines	34.70	65.30
Vietnam	38.50	61.50
Malaysia	44.10	55.90
Indonesia	54.40	45.60
Thailand	74.30	25.70

Source: World Health Statistics 2011, World Health Organization (WHO)

In India, the critical healthcare industry is heavily dependent on private sector investments, where the total public expenditure on health is just around one third of the country’s total expenditure for the same, though in the 12th Five Year Plan period the the government is likely to increase its health expenditure as a percentage to GDP to 2.5 percent.

Healthcare – a more sensitive sector in India:

According to an article titled, ‘Financing health care for all: challenges and opportunities’, published in ‘The Lancet’ dated February 19, 2011 ‘Out of Pocket’ expenditure on health in India (78 per cent) is one of the highest as compared to its neighboring, except Pakistan (82.5 percent). The details are as follows:

	Country	‘Out of Pocket’ expenses (%)
1.	Pakistan	82.5
2.	India	78
3.	China	61
4.	Sri Lanka	53
5.	Thailand	31
6.	Bhutan	29
7.	Maldives	14

Such a high out of pocket expenditure for health in India, makes ‘affordability’ of healthcare products and services so sensitive to all concerned.

Just Hospital oriented health insurance plans are not adequate enough:

The above article from ‘The Lancet ‘also indicates that 74 per cent of the total healthcare expenditure goes for only outpatient or in-clinic treatment of the patients. Only 26 per cent of healthcare expenditure goes for inpatient treatment in the hospitals.

Thus coverage of only expenditure towards hospitalization by the health insurance companies will not be able to provide significant benefits to most of the citizens of India.

Further, the article says that from 1986 to 2004, there has been three times increase in the average real expenditure per hospital admission, both in the government and private hospitals.

Threefold increase in the drug prices from 1993-94 to 2006-07 was mentioned as the key factor for cost escalation in the medical care in India.

Private healthcare sector needs more fiscal incentives and lesser cost of capital:

As indicated above, private healthcare players will increasingly play a very significant role to increase healthcare consumption with equitable span across the population of India. To encourage them to spread their wings in the semi-urban and rural areas of the country effectively, lucrative fiscal/ financial incentives along with the availability of low cost capital, are absolutely necessary.

It is worth mentioning that the growth of rural middle class population is now faster than ever before and much more than their urban counterpart.

Exploitation of the patients must stop:

Unfortunate and deplorable incidences of exploitation of patients, mainly by the private players, are critical impediments to foster growth in quality healthcare consumption within the country.

In this context, ‘The Lancet’, January 11, 2011 highlighted as follows:

“Reported problems (which patients face while getting treated at a private doctor’s clinic) include unnecessary tests and procedures, rewards for referrals, lack of quality standards and irrational use of injection and drugs. Since no national regulations exist for provider standards and treatment protocols for healthcare, over diagnosis, over treatment and maltreatment are common.” Prevailing situation like this calls for urgent national regulations for provider-standards and treatment-protocols, at least for the common diseases in India and more importantly their stricter implementation across the country.

UHC will significantly improve healthcare consumption:

In October 2010, the Planning Commission of India constituted a ‘High Level Expert Group (HLEG)’ on Universal Health Coverage (UHC) under the chairmanship of the well-known medical professional Prof. K. Srinath Reddy. The HLEG was mandated to develop a framework for providing easily accessible and affordable health care to all Indians.

UHC will guarantee access to essential free health services to all. However, because of the uniqueness of India, HLEG proposed a hybrid system that draws on the lessons learnt not only from within India, but also from other developed and developing countries of the world.

UHC is expected to ensure guaranteed access to essential health services to every Indian, including cashless in-patient and out-patient treatment for primary, secondary and tertiary care. All these services will be available to the patients absolutely free of any cost.

Under UHC all citizens of India will be free to choose between Public sector facilities and ‘contracted-in’ private providers for healthcare services.

It is envisaged that the people would be free to supplement the free of cost healthcare services offered under UHC by opting to pay ‘out of pocket’ or going for private health insurance schemes, as per their individual requirements.

Conclusion:

India has already been globally recognized as one of the fastest growing healthcare markets of the world. All components in the healthcare space of the country including hospital and allied services are registering sustainable decent growth, riding mainly on private investments and now fueled by various government projects, such as:

National Rural Health Mission (NRHM)
National Urban Health Mission
Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY)
Universal Health Coverage (UHC)
Free Medicine from the Government hospitals
Centralized procurement by both the Central and the State Governments

Supported by newer, both public and private initiatives, like:

Increase in public spending on healthcare from 1.0 per cent to 2.5 per cent of GDP in the 12th Five Year Plan period
Increasing participation of the private players in smaller towns and hinterland of the country
Wider coverage of health insurance
Micro-financing
Greater spread of telemedicine
More number of mobile diagnosis and surgical centers

All these interesting developments adequately fueled by rising income levels and improving access to healthcare though albeit slowly at present, equitable consumption of healthcare in India, I reckon, is expected to improve by manifold in the years ahead, despite shrill voices of naysayers of vested interests, orchestrated many a times from beyond the shores of India.

By: Tapan J Ray

Reaping rich harvest with less moaning and bagful of creative ideas from emerging Rural Markets of India

Posted on May 7, 2012 by Tapan Ray

About 72 percent of the population and 135 million households of India live in the rural areas of the country. Many of them are poor.

Definition of ‘Rural’:

Agencies of the Government of India like, National Council of Applied Economic (NCAER) and Insurance Regulatory and Development Agency (IRDA) have defined the terminology ‘rural’ as “villages with a population of less than 5000 with 75 percent population engaged in agriculture…”

Rural India is no longer an agrarian economy:

A recent study by ‘Credit Suisse’ indicates that rural India is no longer a pure agrarian economy, depending mostly on the quality of rain falls during monsoon season. This has been corroborated by the fact that the contribution of agriculture to the total GDP of rural India has come down from 50 percent, as registered during the turn of this century, to its current level of about 25 percent.

This transition of rural India from agriculture to industry and services, is now taking place at a much faster pace than ever before, as the rural economy is getting increasingly attuned to the national economic cycle, creating more and more non-agrarian jobs in those areas. Most of the incremental job creation is taking place in manufacturing, construction, retail and wholesale trade and also in the community services.

Currently, 55% of India’s GDP from manufacturing comes from rural India as the ‘Credit Suisse’ report highlights. As a result, since April 2000, per capita GDP in rural India has grown at a much faster pace than in urban India.

This welcoming change, in turn, is expected to play a key role in significantly improving the consumption of reasonably affordable healthcare, besides many other products and services, in the rural India.

Rural share of GDP growing faster:

Since last several years with various rural reform initiatives of the Government, the hinterlands of India have started growing faster than ever before.

A National Council of Applied Economic (NCAER) Research survey, indicating rural share of India’s GDP improved from 40 percent in 1980 to 54 percent in 2010, vindicates this point. At the same time, aggregate rural consumption (US$ Bn) increased from 94 in 1985 to 203 in 2005 and is expected to reach 350 in 2015. (Source: National Statistical Offices, UN, Euro Monitor International, Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India).

A new growth opportunity:

According to McKinsey Report, rural India currently accounts for 21 percent of the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM). It is interesting to note from the NCAER report that both urban and rural India spend 5% of their total income on health.

Rural growth drivers:

McKinsey estimates that by 2015, upcoming smaller towns and the rural markets will contribute as much to the growth of IPM as the metros and top tier towns.

The following factors are expected to drive the growth of the pharmaceutical industry in the rural India:

Large patient base
Increasing overall income (over 1 percent of the total population coming above the poverty line every year)
Increasing number of middle class in rural areas
Disease pattern gradually shifting to chronic ailments
Improving healthcare infrastructure with increasing Government spend on the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM)
Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), which is the National Health Insurance Scheme for Below Poverty Line (BPL) families, will provide health cover to increasing number of BPL households
New initiatives of the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) like, “Janaushadhi” scheme will provide low cost quality medicines to boost the uptake

Rural market size:

The rural markets contribute about 21 percent of U.S$ 12.5 billion pharmaceutical market in India (AIOCD-AWACS, February, 2012). As reported in ‘India Pharma 2015’ of McKinsey, by 2015 rural pharma market size is expected to reach U.S$ 4.8 billion from U.S$1.2 billion in 2005.

Currently, rural markets are dominated by ailments related to various types of infections. As stated above, this disease pattern is expected to change by the next decade to non-infectious chronic illnesses, like diabetes, cardiac, cancer, hypertension etc.

Increasing Pharmaceutical growth trend in the rural markets:

In 2011 the rural markets of India registered a growth of around 23 percent over the previous year. This decent pace of growth is expected to continue in the next decades.

	MAT Dec 2011 (INR M)	MAT Dec 2011 (Saliency)	Growth %
Indian Pharma Market	538,028	100.00	14.92
CLASS I TOWNS	168,339	31.29	12.12
METROS	164,625	30.60	16.33
CLASS II TO VI	102,536	19.06	9.93
RURAL	102,528	19.06	23.19

(Source: IMS Town Class Data – Dec MAT 2011)

Moreover, McKinsey Report forecasts that rural markets will contribute around 27 percent of the total consumption of India by 2020 and by 2015, rural India will account for over 24 percent of the domestic pharmaceutical market from its current level of 21 percent.

Charting the uncharted frontier:

It has been reported that growth rate of the rural markets of many companies have more than doubled due to their rural marketing focus. Possibly as a testimony to this new business opportunity, one can now see:

1. Novartis with its “Arygoya Parivar” initiative is rolling out a tailor-made program for rural areas of seven states of India, to start with. They have developed special packs of essential medicines with special prices to reach out to the rural population. To create disease awareness within the target population and also for disease prevention and treatment, Novartis has deployed health educators for this project.

2. Sanofi has initiated a dedicated rural marketing initiative called ‘Prayas’. The initiative is aimed at ‘bridging the diagnosis‐treatment gap through a structured continuing education program for rural doctors across India’.

The Company says, “through ‘Prayas’, specialists from semi‐urban areas will share latest medical knowledge and clinical experience with general practitioners based in smaller towns and villages in the interiors of India”. Their second strategy, reportedly, is for improving healthcare access by making quality medicines available at affordable prices for the rural patients.

3. Novo Nordisk is currently engaged in screening patients for diabetes in the rural areas of Goa with mobile clinics. This initiative is expected to create widespread awareness about diabetes and early detection of the disease, so as to prevent early onset of the disease related complications.

4. Eli Lilly developed a program along with the Self-Employed Women’s Association in Ahmedabad to educate and encourage rural patients suffering from tuberculosis to go for treatment.

5. Elder pharmaceuticals created a dedicated 750 strong rural marketing sales force called Elvista.

6. Cadila Pharma has set up a dedicated rural marketing arm called ‘Explora’.

7. Alembic Chemicals created a rural business unit called ‘Maxis’.

These are just a few illustrations and not an exhaustive list. However, the issue is whether the rural marketing initiative will continue to remain an experimental one to the pharmaceutical companies in India or will get translated into a decent long term strategic business move.

“The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid”:

The iconic management guru C K Prahalad in his well-known book titled, “The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid” wrote:

“If we stop thinking of the poor as victims or as a burden and start recognizing them as resilient and creative consumers, a whole new world of opportunity will open up.” I am not sure whether the above profound observation is encouraging the pharmaceutical companies to explore the rural India with the wings of courage, where majority of the Indian populations live and most of them are poor.

A ‘Pot of Gold’ in the rural markets?

Currently around 20 million middle class households live in over 6,00,000 villages of India. This is almost the same as the number of middle class households residing in urban India and holds the key to significant increase of healthcare spending in rural India.

Rural market-entry strategy:

Instead of transplanting the urban marketing strategy into rural India, some companies, as mentioned above, have taken the community-welfare route to make the rural population aware of particular disease segments like, tuberculosis, diabetes, cardiovascular, waterborne diseases etc. together with the treatments available for such ailments.

These value added marketing strategies offer benefits to both the patients and the company concerned. The local medical practitioners, in turn, are also benefited as they get increasing number of patients in their clinics through such disease awareness community program by the pharmaceutical companies.

Key challenges:

There are some key challenges for effective rural penetration by the Indian pharmaceutical industry, as follows:

• Inadequate basic healthcare infrastructure. Only 20 percent of total healthcare infrastructure of the country is in rural areas where over 72 percent population of the country lives. • Density of doctors per 10,000 populations in India is just 6. A large number of villages in India do not have any doctor. As per AC Nielson study, an average rural Indian has to travel about 6 km to visit a doctor. A Medical Representative will require traveling about 250 to 300 km every day just to meet about 10 doctors and 4 dealers. • Many villages are not well connected by proper all season roads. • Lack of appropriate supply chain network and logistics support.

Conclusion:

With increasing infrastructural support and tailor made innovative marketing strategies for rural India, simultaneously delivering both preventive and curative therapies under one umbrella, it may not be difficult for the Indian pharmaceutical companies to discover ‘The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid’ – a win-win situation indeed for both the ‘haves’ and a vast majority of ‘have-nots’ living in an amazing country called India.

The name of the game is less moaning and a bagful of implementable creative ideas.

By: Tapan J Ray

India – Young Today, Old Tomorrow: Emerging Issues of Aging, Health and Socioeconomic Profile of the Country

Posted on April 29, 2012 by Tapan Ray

‘World Health Day’ is celebrated every year on April 7, the day ‘World Health Organization (WHO)’ was founded in 1948.

Each year, on this day, people from all walks of life across the globe are invited by WHO to focus on a particular emerging health challenge of global relevance, which becomes the theme of the ‘World Health Day’ for the year.

In 2012, the theme for this day was, “Aging and health: Good health adds life to years”. It focuses on how good health throughout the life span can help the senior citizens to lead a full and productive life and in turn makes them valuable and experienced resources not just to their respective families, but also to the societies and communities they belong to.

Aging affects all:

The process of aging, without any exception, affects the entire population, young or old, male or female, rich or poor, alike, across the world and is considered as one of the key factors of social transformations through the passage of time.

With the advancement in medical science coupled with increasing social awareness for living a healthy life, the average life expectancy of the population in the 20th century reportedly increased by around 30 years in the developed world and is expected to maintain similar growth trend in the 21st century, as well.

Now, with an increasing life expectancy even in the developing world, the issue is assuming greater magnitude and at a much faster pace.

In the language of Steve Jobs:

Steve Jobs, the global icon and the former CEO of Apple Inc., during his commencement speech to Stanford in 2005, very aptly articulated as follows:

“No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don’t want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is, as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life’s change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.”

In a normal situation old age precedes death and just like the inevitability of death, everybody, even a baby born today will need to embrace the old age before being cleared away by death. Thus, as the population will age as a natural process, there will be growing need to make even the old age more meaningful. Sounds like a tall call, but quite pertinent indeed.

Although, an average elderly person of today is much healthier than of the past generations, they will still need appropriate health management and social security plans, especially for an emerging economy, like India.

World population aging faster:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations in its publication titled, “World Population Aging: 1950-2050”, described the trend of ageing of the global population and highlighted the following:

Population aging is unprecedented : This is unparallel in human history and the current century will witness even more rapid aging than the previous one.
Population aging is pervasive: It is affecting every man, woman and child across the world, though currently it is at different stages of progress in different countries.
Population aging is enduring: The world will not return to the young populations of our ancestors.
Population aging has profound implications: It affects many facets of lives of human beings.

Increasing burden of disease:

The burden of some serious age related diseases increases by manifold as the life progresses towards its ‘twilight zone’. Even now, the treatment costs and overall burden of age related diseases, both in the developed and the developing countries, are escalating in an alarming proportion.

Age related diseases:

According WHO, in the industrialized countries over 75 percent of deaths in people of over 65 years of age are due to cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, in addition to disabilities like, loss of bone density leading to osteoporosis.

As per published reports, the incidence of age related Alzheimer’s disease, which is now incurable, will almost double every 20 years to reach around 66 million in 2030 and over 115 million in 2050.

Research for delaying the onset:

Reuters in an article titled, “Is aging a disease?” published in May 20, 2010 reported that many scientists from various parts of the world are now studying the genetic mechanisms of the old persons to help delay, if not overcome, the onset of diseases like Alzheimer’s, cancers, diabetes, cardiovascular ailments and many other age-related illnesses to help leading a better quality of life during old age of the human population.

Elderly population and the impact:

As per an estimate of the United Nations (UN), there will be around 1200 million people over 65 years of age by 2025. Currently, from across the world millions of aging people are denied of proper health care for various reasons. The situation in India is much worse.

It is envisaged by many that failure, either on the part of the Government or society at large, to address this critical issue today, could have a snowballing effect tomorrow.

In Japan, currently half of the national health budget is spent on the elderly individuals, which constitute around a whopping 23 percent of the country’s population. According to another estimate of the Japanese Government, by 2055 half of their total population will constitute of retired senior citizens.

India:

With over 65 percent of the population of India being now below 30 years of age, the country is well poised to have one of the largest numbers of young and productive population in the world, though 7 percent of country’s 1.13 billion people are now over 60 years of age and the number is growing.

The Median Age of the population will keep on increasing over a period of time as follows:

Aging Profile: India and other countries

Year	2000	2015	2025	2030	2035	2040	2050
Median Age–India	23.4	27.2	30.3	31.4	33.5	35.0	37.9
Median Age–World	26.4	29.5	31.9	33.0	34.0	34.9	36.8
Median Age–More Developed Regions	37.3	41.2	43.3	44.2	45.0	45.4	45.2
Median Age–Less Developed Regions	24.1	27.5	30.0	31.2	32.4	33.5	35.7
Median Age–Least Developed Regions	18.1	19.6	21.2	22.2	23.3	24.5	27.1

(Source: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United

Nations Secretariat)

Growth of elderly population is much faster than the population:

As as per the paper titled, “Implications of an Aging Population in India: Challenges and Opportunities” presented at ‘The Living to 100 and Beyond Symposium’ of the Society of Actuaries in Orlando on January 12–14, 2005, the Indian population has approximately tripled during the last 50 years, but the number of elderly Indians has increased more than fourfold.

Assuming continuation of this trend, the United Nations have predicted that the Indian population will again grow by 50 percent in the next 50 years, with the elderly population recording another fourfold growth.

Changing demographic profile:

The situation in India, therefore, by no means is a trivial one and needs to be addressed with a right earnest and sooner, mainly because of the changes in the demographic profile of the country, as follows:

Projected Changes in Indian Demography (in Million)

Age Group	2000	2015	2025	2030	2035	2040	2050
0-14 Years	347	345	337	327	313	300	285
15-59 Years	593	782	865	895	919	937	938
>60 Years	77	119	167	195	223	248	308
Total	1,017	1,246	1,369	1,417	1,455	1,485	1,531

(Source: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat)

Thus, over a period of time in India, increasing number of less productive elderly people and the declining trend of the younger population, could adversely impact the overall socioeconomic profile and and the disease burden of the nation.

Conclusion:

In India, there has been hardly any support in terms of social security, especially for a vast majority of people, who are unable to work after becoming senior citizens of the country.

In a situation like this, the Government of India, civil society and the private sector enterprises of the country should work in tandem to give shape to appropriate policy measures to effectively address the issues of the increasing number aging population of the country, over a period of time.

This is necessary not just for the socioeconomic reasons, but also to arrest any significant increase in the overall disease burden of the nation with its possible adverse impact on the growing economy of the country.

Continuing lack of interest to work out a long term social and policy measures to address the important issues related to population aging in India, in a holistic way, could significantly impede the pace of economic growth of the country, celebration of the ‘World Health Day’ on April 7, 2012 notwithstanding.

By: Tapan J Ray

Chasing the “Holy Grail”: Reasonably affordable healthcare for all

Posted on April 23, 2012 by Tapan Ray

The Healthcare industry of the world as a whole with a size of several trillion US$ is growing at a fast pace in many countries for various reasons. The industry can be broadly divided into six categories as follows:

Managed Health Care, like the US and many other OECD countries providing ‘Universal Health Coverage’
Medical Equipment and Devices
Pharmaceuticals
Bio-pharmaceuticals
Health Insurance
Health Support Services

Though BRIC countries and other emerging markets are showing promising growth potential, United States of America (USA) still remains the largest entity within the global healthcare industry, followed by European Union (EU) and Japan.

Success requirements:

The most important success requirements for the Global healthcare industry may be listed as follows:

Proficiency in early capturing of the key market trends
Leveraging technology in all areas of business
Continuous product and service innovation
Meeting customer needs even before they feel for the same
Cutting-edge, well-differentiated and well-executed market and marketing strategies
Always in touch with customers with win-win business objectives
Outpacing competition with continuous proactive moves

India:

The success factors for excellence in the healthcare sector of India are no different from other emerging markets. However, some key components of this sectoral space, like optimal infrastructure and efficient delivery mechanisms, especially in the hinterland and rural areas of the country, are still in ‘Work In Progress (WIP)’ stages of development.

Healthcare growth drivers in India:

According to the Investment Commission of India, the healthcare sector of the country has registered a robust CAGR of over 12 percent during the last four years and the trend is expected to be ascending further.

Quite in tandem, other important areas of the healthcare sector have also recorded impressive performance as follows:

Areas	Growth %
Hospitals/Nursing Homes	20
Medical Equipment	15
Clinical Lab Diagnostics	30
Imaging Diagnostics	30
Other Services (includes Training & Education; Aesthetics & Weight loss; Retail Pharmacy, etc.)	40

In addition, from the allocation made for health (2.5 percent of the GDP) in the 12^th Five Year Plan Document of India, it appears that the country will clock a mid to high-teen growth in its healthcare spending during this period, mainly due to the following reasons:

Economy to turn stronger
Massive public healthcare expansion through projects like Universal Health Coverage (UHC), expanded National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), new National Urban Health Mission (NUHM)
Expanded Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojojana (RSBY) for Below Poverty Line (BPL) population
Growing middle income households both in the urban and rural areas
Increasing life-style related health issues
Improving penetration of Health Insurance

Key Challenges:

The path ahead will not really be strewn with the beds of roses. The rural healthcare infrastructure will continue to pose a key challenge, at least in the near term, some of the facts being as follows:

A. Status of Rural Healthcare Infrastructure in India:

Infrastructure and Services	Villages [%]
Connected with Roads	73.9
Having any Health Provider	95.3
Having trained birth attendant	37.5
Having ‘Anganwadi’ Worker (Child Care Center in rural areas)	74.5
Having a doctor	43.5

(Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare)

B. Hospital Beds per 1000 of population:

Country	Hospital Beds Per 1000 Population
India	> 0.7 [Urban: 2.2 and Rural 0.1]
Russia	9.7
Brazil	2.6
China	2.2
World Average	3.96

(Source: Kshema)

Needs more innovative business models:

Being supported by the monetary and other fiscal incentives of the Government, Tier II and III cities of India will continue to attract more investors for their future growth potential. At the same time, anticipated lower profit margins from these areas, predominantly due to relatively lower affordability threshold of the local population and inadequate health insurance penetration in these areas, is expected to make these healthcare providers to plan for no-frill innovative business models, like much talked about ‘the hub-and-spoke model’, as practiced in many other industries.

Some of the key players of the healthcare industry of India like, Apollo and Fortis have already started expanding into tier-II and tier-III cities of the country, prompted by increasing demand for high-quality specialty healthcare services at reasonably affordable prices in the smaller towns of the country.

Meanwhile, Frontier Lifeline Hospital is reportedly in the process of setting up India’s first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) for healthcare, ‘Frontier Mediville’ at Elavoor, near Chennai.

Areas of caution:

While looking at the big picture, the following factors should also be taken note of:

At least in the short to medium term, it will be unrealistic to expect that India will be a high margin / high volume market for the healthcare sector in general.
The market will continue to remain within the modest-margin range with marketing excellence driven volume turnover.
The government focus on reasonably affordable drug prices may get extended to medical devices / equipment and other related areas, as well.

India is taking strides:

I. According to the Rural Health Survey Report 2009 of the Ministry of Health and Family

Welfare, in rural India during the last five years:

The number of primary health centers has increased by 84 per cent to 20,107.
Around 15,000 health sub-centers and 28,000 nurses and midwives have been added.

II According to RNCOS December, 2010 report:

Indian health insurance market is currently not only the fastest growing, but also second largest non-life insurance segment in the country.
The health insurance premium in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 25 per cent from 2009-10 to 2013-14.
By end 2013 India is expected to curve out a share over 3 per cent in the global medical tourism industry with a CAGR in the number of medical tourists to over 19 per cent, during 2011-2013 period.

III. According to PwC, the medical technology industry of India is expected to grow from US$

2.7 billion in 2008 to US$ 14 billion by 2020.

IV. Leveraging cutting edge technology, digital bio-surveillance projects are being initiated to

generate data on the prevalence of various diseases and to create actionable databases on healthcare needs in rural India by several private players like, Narayana Hrudayalaya and the Mazumdar Shaw Cancer Centre.

V. Major healthcare players of India like, Manipal Group, Max Healthcare and Apollo are now

reportedly venturing into new segments such as primary care and medical diagnostics.

Job creation  in healthcare sector:

The trend of new job creation in the healthcare sector of India is also quite encouraging, as supported by the following details:

The Healthcare sectors in India recorded a maximum post recession recruitment to a total employee base of 33,66,000 with a new job creation of 2,95,000, according to ‘Ma Foi Employment Trends Survey 2010’.
Despite slowdown in other industries, in the healthcare sector the new job creation continues at a faster pace.
With many new hospital beds added and increasing access to primary, secondary and tertiary / specialty healthcare, among others, the ascending trend in job creation is expected to continue in the healthcare sector of India in the years ahead.

Pharmaceutical Industry:

McKinsey & Company in its report titled, “India Pharma 2020: Propelling access and acceptance realizing true potential” estimated that the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) will grow to US$ 55 billion by 2020 and the market has the potential to record a turnover of US$ 70 billion with a CAGR of 17 per cent.

Currently India:

Ranks 4th in the world in terms of pharmaceutical sales volume.
Caters to around a quarter of the global requirements for generic drugs.
Meets around 70 per cent of the domestic demand for Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API).
Has the largest number of US FDA approved plant outside USA
Files highest number of ANDAs and DMFs
One of most preferred global destinations for contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS)

Conclusion:

Despite all these, the healthcare Industry of India is still confronted with many challenges while striking a right balance between public health interest and expectations for a high margin ‘free market’ business policies by a large section of players in the healthcare sector of India, across its sub-sectors, both global and local, quite unlike many other emerging sectors, like telecom and IT.

Moreover, pharmaceuticals come under the ‘Essential Commodities Act’ of the country, where government administered pricing is common.

That said, without further delay, all stakeholders, along with the Government, should now join hands, to collectively resolve the critical issues of the healthcare sector of the nation, like:

Creation and modernization of healthcare infrastructure leveraging IT
Universal Health Coverage
Win-win regulatory policies
Creation of employable skilled manpower
Innovation friendly ecosystem
Reasonably affordable healthcare services and medicines for the common man through a robust government procurement and delivery system
Right attitude of all stakeholders to find a win-win solution for all issues, instead of adhering to the age-old blame game in perpetuity, as it were, without conceding each other’s ground even by an inch.

Now is the high time for India, I reckon, to reap a rich harvest from the emerging lucrative opportunities, coming both from India and across the world in its healthcare space. This, in turn, will help the country to effectively align itself with the key global healthcare need of providing reasonably affordable healthcare to all.

In pursuit of this ‘Holy Grail’, the nation has all the success ingredients in its armory, as mentioned above, to play a key role in the global healthcare space, not just as a facilitator to help achieving reasonable corporate business objectives of the healthcare players, but more importantly to alleviate sufferings of a vast majority of the ailing population, living even beyond the shores of India.

By: Tapan J Ray

Balancing Strong IP Protection, Public Health Safeguards and Declining R&D Productivity – A Crafty Gutsy Ball Game

Posted on April 16, 2012 by Tapan Ray

Pharmaceutical innovation has always been considered the lifeblood for the pharmaceutical industry and very rightly so. However, many studies do point out that such innovation has benefited the developed world more than the developing world.

Product Price and Access:

In the paper titled ‘TRIPS, Pharmaceutical Patents and Access to Essential Medicines: Seattle, Doha and Beyond’, published in ‘Chicago Journal for International Law, Vol. 3(1), Spring 2002’, the author argues, though the reasons for the lack of access to essential medicines are manifold, there are many instances where high prices of drugs deny access to needed treatments for many patients. Prohibitive drug prices, in those cases, were the outcome of monopoly due to strong intellectual property protection.

The author adds, “the attempts of Governments in developing countries to bring down the prices of patented medicines have come under heavy pressure from industrialized countries and the multinational pharmaceutical industry”.

While the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Agreement (TRIPS) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) sets out minimum standards for the patent protection for pharmaceuticals, it also offers adequate safeguards against negative impact of patent protection or its abuse in terms of extraordinary and unjustifiable drug pricing. The levels of these safeguards vary from country to country based on the socio-economic and political requirements.

The Doha Declaration:

Many independent experts in this field consider the Doha Declaration as an important landmark for recognizing the primacy to public health interest over private intellectual property and the rights of the members of WTO to use safeguards as enumerated in TRIPS, effectively.

To protect public health interest and extend access to innovative medicines to majority of their population whenever required, even many developed/OECD countries do not allow a total freehand for the patented products pricing in their respective countries.

Early signals of global empathy:

While expressing similar sentiment ‘The Guardian’ reported that Andrew Witty, the global CEO of GlaxoSmithKline, has decided to slash prices on all medicines in the poorest countries, give back profits to be spent on hospitals and clinics and more importantly share knowledge about potential drugs that are currently protected by patents.

Witty further commented that he believes, drug companies have an obligation to help the poor patients getting appropriate treatment and reportedly challenged other pharmaceutical giants to follow his lead.

An interesting study:

A study titled, ‘Pharmaceutical innovation and the burden of disease in developing and developed countries’ of Columbia University and National Bureau of Economic Research, to ascertain the relationship across diseases between pharmaceutical innovation and the burden of disease both in the developed and developing countries, reported that pharmaceutical innovation is positively related to the burden of disease in the developed countries but not so in the developing countries.

The most plausible explanation for the lack of a relationship between the burden of disease in the developing countries and pharmaceutical innovation, as pointed out by the study, is weak incentives for firms to develop medicines for the diseases of the poor.

Point – Counterpoint:

A contrarian view to this study argues that greater focus on the development of new drugs for the diseases of the poor should not be considered as the best way to address and eradicate such diseases in the developing countries. On the contrary, strengthening basic healthcare infrastructure along with education and the means of transportation from one place to the other could improve general health of the population of the developing world quite dramatically.

The counterpoint to the above argument articulates that health infrastructure projects are certainly very essential elements of achieving longer-term health objectives of these countries, but in the near term, millions of unnecessary deaths in the developing countries can be effectively prevented by offering more innovative drugs at affordable prices to this section of the society.

A solution emerging:

Responding to the need of encouraging pharmaceutical innovation without losing focus on public health interest, in 2006 the ‘World Health Organization (WHO)‘ created the ‘Inter-governmental Working Group on Public Health, Innovation and Intellectual Property (IGWG)‘. The primary focus of IGWG is on promoting sustainable, needs-driven pharmaceutical R&D for the diseases that disproportionately affect developing countries.

Declining R&D productivity:

Declining R&D productivity adds another dimension to this raging debate with a snowballing effect, as it were.

Over a period of decades, the business models for small-molecule based blockbuster drugs have successfully catapulted the global pharmaceutical business to a high-margin, dynamic and vibrant industry. However, a time has now come when the golden path from the ‘mind to market’ of the drug discovery process is becoming increasingly arduous and prohibitively expensive.

Deploying expensive resources to discover a New Chemical Entity (NCE) with gradually diminishing returns in the milieu of very many ‘me too’ types of new drugs, does no longer promise a strong commercial incentive.

The impact of the above scenario also gets reflected in the status of International patent filings under the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) of the ‘World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)’ as follows:

A. Last five years, PCT filings:

The last five years’ PCT filing status does not seem to be encouraging either.

Year	PCT Filings	Change %
2007	159,926
2008	163,240	2.1
2009	154,406	(5.4)
2010	164,316	6.4
2011	181,900	10.7 *(E)

* Estimate

B. Country-wise PCT Filing in 2011:

While having a closer look at the data, it becomes quite evident that in terms of percentage increase in the PCT filings two Asian countries, China and Japan, have registered their overall dominance. However, in terms of absolute number USA still ranks first.

County	No. Of PCT Filings	% Increase
USA	48,596	8
China	16,401	33.4
Japan	38,888	21
Germany	18,568	5.7
South Korea	10,447	8

C. Technical-field-wise PCT Filing in 2011:

In terms of the technical fields, pharmaceuticals ranked fifth in 2011.

Rank	Industry	No. Of PCT Filings
1.	Electrical Machinery, Apparatus, Energy	11,296
2.	Digital Communication	11,574
3.	Medical technology	10,753
4.	Computer technology	10,455
5.	Pharmaceuticals	7,683
6.	Organic fine chemistry	5,283
7.	Biotechnology	5,232

D. Biotech/Pharma companies featuring in WIPO’s Top 100 filers list:

Very few biotech and pharmaceutical companies featured in the Top 100 PCT filers’ list of WIPO as follows:

	Company
1.	Procter & Gamble
2.	Sumitomo Chemical
3.	DuPont
4.	Dow Global
5.	Novartis AG
6.	Roche
7.	Merck GmbH
8.	Sanofi-Aventis GmbH
9.	Bayer CropScience AG

E. The top five university PCT filers in 2011:

Universities of the US dominated among the PCT filings by the Academic institutions as follows:

University	No. Of PCT Filings
University of California, US	277
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US	179
University of Texas System, US	127
Johns Hopkins University, US	111
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, South Korea	103

Need to encourage pharmaceutical innovation:

Based on the WIPO data, as mentioned above, the current status of the global pharmaceutical innovation does not seem to be very encouraging.

That said, in the environment of declining R&D productivity of the global pharmaceutical industry, there is indeed a strong requirement to encourage pharmaceutical innovation across the globe, based on the socio-economic environment of each country, together with adequate safeguards in place to protect public health interest.

Why protect patent?

The pharmaceutical major Eli Lilly has very aptly epitomized the reason for patent protection in their website called ‘LillyPad’, as follows:

“Pharmaceutical companies continue to invest in innovation not only because it is good for business, but it is what patients expect. If we want to continue to have breakthrough products, we need patent protection and incentives to invest in intellectual property. The equation is simple, patents lead to innovation – which help lead to treatments and cures”.

Conclusion:

Currently, various socio-economic expectations, demands and requirements, not just for the poor, but also of the powerful growing middle class intelligentsia are gradually getting unfolded on this subject from many parts of the globe. These collective demands cannot be either wished away or negotiated with a strong belief that the future should be a replication of the past.

There should be full respect, support and protection for innovation and the product patent system in the country. This is essential not only, for the progress of the pharmaceutical industry, but also to alleviate sufferings of the ailing population, effectively.

At the same time, available indicators point out that the civil society would continue to expect in return just, fair, responsible and reasonably affordable prices for the innovative medicines, based on the overall socio-economic status of the local population. Some experts have already opined that prices of life saving innovative drugs, unlike many other patented products, will no longer remain ‘unquestionable’ in increasing number of countries.

Thus, even at the time of declining pharmaceutical R&D productivity, striking a right balance between a strong patent regime and safeguarding overall health interest of its population, particularly of those with a very high ‘out of pocket’ expenditure towards healthcare, will indeed be a crafty gutsy ball game for a country.

By: Tapan J Ray

PILMAN

A Tapan Ray Website

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