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NCDs: Any Wolf Around, In Sheep’s Clothing? 

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Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs), such as, cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease, are now the leading cause of death in the world, accounting for 63 percent of annual deaths. Over 80 percent of NCDs occur in lower or middle income countries.

Moreover, wide prevalence of NCDs and inadequate patients’ access to related drugs have a profound negative impact on the economic progress of any country. According to various reports, the increase of around just one year of a country’s average life expectancy, could increase its GDP growth by around four percent.

Since long, the global drug industry has been contributing immensely to discover and bring to the market various amazing medicines to effectively treat a spectrum of NCDs. It is still happening, but with a stark different impact on the majority of the patients, across the world. 

There are many important aspects to NCDs, such as, public and private initiatives in their prevention, continuous screening, proper diagnosis, providing most effective treatment, and population’s lifestyle management for more effective disease control. However, in this article, I shall focus only on modern drug pricing, as one of the key barriers for patients’ access to modern drugs for the treatment of these ailments.

Saying something, and doing something else:

In this context, some large pharma lobby groups pontificate that the drug industry recognizes the economic and social impact of NCDs. Many of them also try to widely publicize, that they are working with various stakeholders, such as, the Governments, other payers and patients’ groups, as an active solution partner in lessening this burden. 

Yes, some of them do actively support some programs, mostly to prevent, screen and diagnose these chronic ailments. There are also instances when they try to showcase some of their occasional and complicated, so called ‘patient access’ programs.

Interestingly, a global major even wanted to reap a rich harvest by highlighting one such initiatives to win a patent litigation in the Supreme Court of India. As many would know, the Apex Court of the country did not take cognizance of its real value to patients, as projected by the concerned company, while dictating its final judgement on the Glivec case.

To many independent experts, these could most probably be part of a grand façade to justify the high drug prices, which most of the patients can’t afford, and also is an attempt to manage their fast eroding overall public image. On the other hand, they ‘religiously’ continue to keep increasing the drug prices arbitrarily, including those of NCDs. I shall dwell on it below.

Impeding patient access to modern drugs:

Despite all these developments, the issue of general affordability of most effective available drugs, even by the payers, such as, many Governments and the health insurance companies, are seriously impeding the patient access to these medicines.

Such exorbitant treatment costs with modern and more effective drugs is creating almost an impregnable barrier for access to these medicines, mostly for those patients incurring Out-of-Pocket (OoP) expenditure on health care. In a situation like this, where the volume sales do not increase significantly, to maintain the business growth the manufacturers of these drugs further hike up their product prices to a jaw dropping level, as perceived by both the patients and the payers.

This overall pricing environment is now posing a major challenge to many even in many developed countries of the world, including the United States.

Even the sky is not the limit:

Today, for a drug price increase not even the sky is the limit. Recently, the Census Bureau, Commerce Department of the United States (US) announced May 2016 sales of merchant wholesalers of various industries in the country. According to this report, the total pharma sales by manufacturers to pharmacies, hospitals, and others in the distribution chain reflected a buoyant increase of a hefty 11.3 percent from a year ago, especially when most other sectors showed sluggishness in growth.

The obvious question, therefore, that comes up, are the Americans now consuming more pharmaceutical products than in the past? The answer, however, is negative, though not very surprising to many.

In that case, is this increase in growth coming primarily from price increases of drugs, which are mostly used for the treatment of chronic ailments? The answer now will be an affirmative one. 

How much price increase is enough?

This question becomes quite relevant, when a large section of even Americans starts raising their voices against high drug price, as it is adversely impacting their access to those drugs. 

If this question is put slightly differently, such as, when Apple Inc. can take an annual price increase of around 10 percent for its iPhones in the Unites States (US), how much drug price increases the pharma companies are possibly taking every year in the same country? This interesting point was deliberated in an article published in The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on July 14, 2016. 

Price increases driving growth:

According to this article, pharmaceutical prices in the US rose by 9.8 percent from May 2015 through May 2016. This is the second-highest increase among the 20 largest products and services tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index, with investment services ranking first.

Majority of pharma companies keeps increasing prices also for a large section drugs used in the treatment of NCDs, which require almost lifelong therapy for the patients to lead a normal and meaningful life.

I am trying to give below a flavor of such drug price increases, both for NCDs and communicable diseases, quoting a few examples from the above WSJ article:

  • Biogen Inc. reported a 15 percent increase to US$ 744.3 million in US sales of its Multiple Sclerosis (MS) drug Tecfidera in the first quarter, primarily due to price increases. The local revenue for Biogen’s other biggest-selling products, Avonex, used in the relapsing form of multiple sclerosis, and Tysabri used in multiple sclerosis and Crohn’s disease, also benefited from higher prices.
  • The sales of Giliead Science’s Truvada, used as a preventive treatment for HIV rose 16 percent in the quarter, on the back of higher prices, and also increased use as a preventive treatment for HIV.
  • Global sales of Amgen Inc.’s anti-inflammatory drug Enbrel rose 24 percent in the first three months of the year, driven primarily by a higher net selling price.
  • US sales for AbbVie Inc.’s anti-inflammatory drug Humira rose 32 percent in the first quarter, due to price increases and higher prescription volume. 
  • Pfizer Inc.’s US price increases and, in some cases greater prescription volume, helped drive higher revenue for nine drugs representing US$2 billion in US revenue.

Payers have started reacting:

Responding to this development, Express Scripts’ National Preferred Formulary (NPF) of the US, which is one of the most widely used drug list in the United States, providing prescription drug coverage guidelines for 25 million Americans, has excluded many drugs from its 2017 list. This exclusion covers some brands, such as, Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster GLP-1 diabetes drug Victoza and two of its top-selling insulins.

Similarly, another large American retail and health care company CVS Health’s 2017 formulary does not feature, among many other drugs, Sanofi’s blockbuster insulin Lantus along with its follow-up Toujeo, making it the largest commercial product ever excluded from a formulary. 

‘The playbook used for a number of years is over’:

In an article of August 04, 2016 titled, “Drug lobby plans a counterattack on prices”, a senior director of the public affairs firm APCO Worldwide, which represents several drug companies, and a former HHS official under President George W. Bush was quoted saying, in the context of pharma companies and their lobby groups that, the reality, the message and the playbook used for a number of years is over. The industry can no longer defend high drug prices by pointing to the pricey research and development that goes into innovative medicines. They have to move on, he added.

Indian scenario:

The Indian scenario is much worse, with OoP expenditure on drugs being around 70 percent of the total treatment cost. It could be even more, if only NCDs are considered. This situation raises a red flag, especially considering the WHO report released on January 20, 2015 that highlights NCDs are estimated to have accounted for 60 per cent of the deaths in India in 2014.

Some of the examples are as follows:

  • An ICMR-INDAIB study, published in September 2011, on diabetes prevalence in India indicate that the epidemic is progressing rapidly across the nation, and has already affected a total of 62.4 million persons in 2011. With proper diagnosis and screening this figure may increase to a dangerous level in India.
  • According to WHO, almost 2.6 million Indians are predicted to die due to coronary heart disease (CHD), which constitutes 54.1 percent of all CVD deaths in India by 2020. 
  • A March 2012 ‘The Lancet’ study found that nearly six lakh Indians die of cancer every year, with 70 percent of these deaths between the ages of 30-69 years.
  • A report titled “Dementia in Asia Pacific Region” released in November 2014, at the 17th Asia Pacific Regional Conference of Alzheimer’s Disease International (ADI) states that by 2050, the number of people in India suffering from dementia will rise to over 12 million.

Carefully assessing the enormous pharma business opportunity, mainly due to increasing health awareness and fast growing per capita income in the country, pharma players operating in India have become very active in the NCD area, in different ways. However, one strategy remains unchanged, which is continuous increase in modern drug prices, even at the cost of volume increase, frequently taking them beyond affordability of a large section of patients in India. 

Indian Government also reacted:

Recognizing, and basically to address this critical problem, just as what has is now happening in other parts of the globe too, the Union Ministry of Health was compelled to take strong measures, especially in the absence of Universal Health Care (UHC) in India. The Government recently revised the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) by adding many more modern drugs for NCDs in the list, to facilitate bringing them under the drug price control mechanism of the country.

Many company’s evading drug price control:

The Union Chemicals and Fertilizers minister Mr. Ananth Kumar informed the Rajya Sabha of the Indian Parliament on July 28, 2016 that various drug price regulatory measures taken by the government have helped consumers save Rs 4,988 crore over the last two years.

This saving may well be just on the paper. On the ground, have the consumers been really benefited out of these measures, and if so, to that much extent? 

The answer wouldn’t be too ferret out, when one takes into account the reply of the Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilizers, Mr. Hansraj Gangaram Ahir to the Lok Sabha of the Parliament on March 08, 2016. The Minister informed the lawmakers that the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) is trying to recover a whopping Rs 4,551 crore, including interest, from various pharma companies for overcharging as of February 2016. Out of this total amount, Rs 3,698.32 crore, representing about 82 per cent of the total outstanding amount, is under litigation in various High Courts and Supreme Court spreading across 1,389 cases, the Minister further said.

The question, therefore, arises, how much benefit of the drug price control of essential medicines is actually benefitting the patients, and how much is being evaded by the pharma players?

Price increases driving Indian pharma industry growth:

In India too, a large number of pharma companies are increasing prices, including a large proportion of those drugs, which are used in the treatment of NCDs, requiring almost lifelong therapy for the sufferers to lead a normal and meaningful life.

The exorbitant treatment cost for many NCDs, with the modern and more effective drugs, is seriously impeding the patient access. As a cascading effect, the manufacturers of these drugs are further jacking up their prices to a much higher level for achieving their business growth objectives. This is very similar to what is happening also in the developed countries, including the US. 

That price increases are primarily driving the growth of the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) is vindicated by the following table, which has been compiled from the monthly retail audit reports of the well-reputed organization AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS Private Limited:

IPM growth through price increases versus volume (July 2015 to June 2016):

Growth % Jun 16 May April Mar Feb Jan 16 Dec 15 Nov Oct Sept Aug July 15
Price 3.8 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.1 5.2 1.0 13.2 9.9 13.2 12.9
Volume -0.6 -4.4 3.2 -5.3 3.7 1.3 2.8 5.0 5.5 1.4 1.6 3.3

Source: Monthly Retail Audit of AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd

Conclusion:

Around the world, arbitrary drug price increases almost on a continuous basis, including in the low inflation countries that may now include India, has sparked-off a raging global debate. Even the Presidential nominees for the forthcoming general election in the United States are taking keen interest on the subject.

As highlighted in a recent issue of the magazine Politico, powerful pharma lobby groups are also gearing up to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to counter this ‘threat’, as perceived by them.

A number of hectic activities in this area, apparently, have started in India too, mainly to divert the focus of the stakeholders from arbitrary drug price increases to other important areas such as, NCDs. This usually happens by making the vested interests eulogizing how much good work these pharma companies are doing in this particular area, only to serve the patients’ health interest. 

Many global pharma players seem to still believe that the same old message from the same old playbook would work even today, at least in India, to defend high drug prices on the contentious ground of pricey R&D that goes into innovative medicines. I reckon, almost gone are those days, even in India.

NCDs need to be fought, unitedly, with effective public, private initiatives and without any self-serving agenda of any participants. The issue needs to deliberated not in the five-star hotels, neither in front of a captive audience, nor with an intent of getting favorable media coverage, but on the real ground, along the general population, both in the urban and the hinterlands of India.

These initiatives would appear praiseworthy to many, when the ultimate aim of any stakeholder, including the doctors and the pharma players, won’t be to make the consumers consume more of high priced medicines, in many cases even by selling their frugal assets. The key aim, I believe, should be to facilitate prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment with affordable modern medicines, and finally to help manage the ailments well, through the rest of the life of any sufferers.

In the battle against NCDs, it is also important to know well and segregate, if there is any wolf around, in sheep’s clothing.

By: Tapan J. Ray  

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

‘Fake Drugs Kill More People Each Year Than Terrorism In The Last 40 years’

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In this article, I shall deliberate on ‘fake medicines’ that we may at times land up into buying, without any inkling that instead of curing or managing the ailments, these products can push us into serious health hazards, quite contrary to what we and our doctors hope for.

One may term these substances as ‘Counterfeit’, ‘Fake’, ‘Spurious’ or ‘Sub-standard’ drugs, or in whatever other names one may wish to. The bottom-line is that such products in the guise of drugs could precipitate very serious and life-threatening health crisis for patients. This mindless game has already become both a global and local health menace, though in varying degrees and parameters in different countries.

According to INTERPOL, large sums of money are involved with these transnational criminal enterprises. Fake drug makers, who run this deadly trade undercover, use sophisticated tools and technologies and are well equipped to operate stealthily.

Deploying requisite wherewithal, this growing threat to public health and safety needs to be addressed expeditiously by all concerned and in tandem. Curbing this menace would call for great concerted focus in approach and execution of a fool-proof strategy with military precision.

At this stage, I reckon, we should not clutter the subject by mixing it up with other commercial considerations, such as Intellectual Property (IP) related matter, for which appropriate laws and mechanisms are already in place.

CBI underscores veracity of the problem:

Under the above backdrop, a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) Press Release dated June 24, 2015 announced that the First Indo-French Workshop on “Combating Counterfeit Medicine” for Police Officers, Investigators and other officers was held on 23 and 24 June 2015 in New Delhi.

The event was organized in collaboration with the French Embassy; Institute of Research Against Counterfeit Medicines, France; Central Office Against Environmental & Public Health Violations, France and Central Fight Against Harm to the Environment And Public Health (OCLAESP) and was hosted by the CBI. Mr. Anil Sinha, Director, CBI inaugurated the workshop.

‘Fake Drugs Kill More People Each Year than Terrorism’:

In his inaugural address, Mr. Sinha made a startling revelation, when he said, according to an estimate of INTERPOL; fake medicines kill more people in a year than those who have died in the past 40 years as a result of terrorism.

Just a few years ago, INTERPOL reportedly estimated that while more than 65,000 people were killed in over 40 years in transnational terrorist incidents, the estimates of deaths caused by fake medicines range from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands annually.

Quoting Ronald Noble, the erstwhile Secretary General of INTERPOL another report says, “40 years of terrorism has killed about 65,000 people, while 200,000 people died from the use of counterfeit drugs last year alone, and that’s just in China.”

Both crime and big money are involved in this life-threatening menace. Citing an example the CBI Director said, ‘One illicit online pharmacy network, which was dismantled by US authorities in 2011, managed to earn USD 55 million during two years of operations’.

In India, we have already read about the raids conducted by Mumbai FDA in April 2015 on similar unauthorized online pharmacies in the country. Following this development, the Drug Controller General of India has announced his yet another good intent to look into this issue with the help of a trade organization.

I shall also discuss, very briefly though, about problems associated with online pharmacies related to fake drugs, the world over.

More problems in the developing nations:

The CBI Director also articulated in his address, “Though the ramification of this menace is worldwide, it is more pronounced in developing and under developed nations.”

Sometime back in 2006, a study published by the then International Medical Products Anti-Counterfeiting Task Force (IMPACT) indicated that in countries like, the USA, EU, Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, the problem is less than 1 percent. On the other hand, in the developing nations like parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa more than 30 percent of the medicines are counterfeits.

The above ‘Task Force’ also reported as follows:

“Indian pharmaceutical companies have suggested that in India’s major cities, one in five strips of medicines sold is a fake. They claim a loss in revenue of between 4 percent and 5 percent annually. The industry also estimates that spurious drugs have grown from 10 percent to 20 percent of the total market.”

‘Fake Drugs’ are more in countries with weak regulatory enforcement:

It has been observed that the issue of fake drugs is more common in those countries, where the regulatory enforcement mechanism is weak. India, I reckon, is one such country.

Interestingly, the Ministry of Health in India does not even recognize that fake Drugs are a growing menace in the country. This is vindicated by its latest report of 2009 on this subject.

The above report titled, “Report on Countrywide Survey for Spurious Drugs”, published by CDSCO on behalf of Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India in 2009, concluded as follows:

“In view of above observations and data obtained from the manufacturers, after physical verification of all the drug samples and subsequent chemical analysis report on the representative of samples taken at random, it may be concluded that:

(i)             The extent of spurious drug in retail pharmacy is much below the projections made by various media, WHO, SEARO, and other studies i.e. only 0.046 % (11 samples out of 24,136 samples).

(ii)           Extents of substandard drugs among the branded items are only 0.1 % {Out of two thousand nine hundred seventy six (2976) unsuspected samples, 03 samples do not conform to claim with respect to Assay on chemical analysis}”

It is an irony that the drug regulators in India mostly keep demonstrating an ‘Ostrich Syndrome’ – refusing to acknowledge this menace that is blatantly obvious. They apparently believe that no health hazards due to prevalence of fake drugs exist in the country.

On the other side – many worrying reports:

Though the Government of India tends to wash its hands off on the very existence of this menace with the survey reports as above, following are just a few examples from other reports raising concerns on this critical issue in India:

  • A July 2014 ASSOCHAM report titled, “Fake and Counterfeit Drugs In India –Booming Biz” states that fake drugs constitute US$ 4.25 billion of the total US$ 14-17 billion of domestic pharmaceutical market. If the fake drugs market grows at the current rate of 25 percent, it will cross US$ 10 billion mark by 2017.
  • A May 2012 study published in ‘The Lancet’ reported that over one in three anti-malarial drugs sold in southeast Asia are fake while a third of samples in sub-Saharan Africa failed chemical testing for containing too much or too little of the active ingredient, potentially encouraging drug resistance. Around 7 percent of the drugs tested in India was found to be of poor quality with many being fake. India reportedly records 1.5 million cases of malaria every year.
  • A February 2012 report of ‘The National Initiative against Piracy and Counterfeiting’ of FICCI highlighted that the share of fake/counterfeit medicines is estimated at 15- 20 percent of the total Indian pharmaceutical market.
  • A 2011/12 report of the US Customs and Border Protection highlighted: “India and Pakistan both made it to top 10 source countries this year due to seizures of counterfeit pharmaceuticals. Pharma seizures accounted for 86 percent of the value of IPR seizures from India and 85 percent of the value of IPR seizures from Pakistan.”

DCGI intends to justify his moot point yet again:

In view of all these worrying reports and amid concerns around the quality of medicines being manufactured in India, in January 2015, the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) proposed carrying out a nation-wide survey using methodology prepared by the Indian Statistical Institute, Hyderabad to assess the prevalence of fake and substandard drugs.

In the 2015 survey, around 42,000 locally made drug samples would be drawn from across the country throughout the rest of this year, which would include 15 therapeutic categories of drugs featuring in the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM), 2011.

As I mentioned before, according to the DCGI this survey would “tell the world that our drugs are of quality”.

I discussed a similar issue titled, ‘Are We Taking Safe And Effective Medicines‘ in this Blog on November 13, 2013.

‘Fake Drugs’ and Online drug sales:

Before I touch upon this point and at the very outset, let me submit that in this article I shall not discuss on the merits or demerits of online pharmacies and the need of such e-outlets in India.

That said, it is now widely believed, backed by hard data that the Internet is increasingly assuming an attractive niche in the global diffusion of ‘fake drugs’.

Unlike India, some countries already support the business of legal online pharmacies by charting a transparent regulatory mechanism in place. For example in the United States all Internet pharmacies have to be licensed in the country. All their States require this. The general rule is, if an Internet pharmacy is offering to ship drugs into a particular state, they have to be licensed (but not necessarily located) there.

However, if an Internet pharmacy is shipping prescription drugs to individuals in the US from outside the US, that is absolutely illegal.

Some institutions in the US developed an accreditation system for Internet pharmacies. The official seals of these institutions, require to be posted on pharmacies’ website as a warrantee.

It is important to note that these institutions operate only at the national level and due to differences in domestic laws in different countries, it is difficult for any of them to provide customers with reliable information concerning the quality of pharmaceuticals, in general, available online.

Status of online pharmacies in India:

Although online sales of pharmaceuticals are totally illegal in India till date, there seems to be several such pharmacies still operating in the country.

It is generally believed that the impact of the Internet on ‘fake drugs’ business models is real. Thus, enforcement strategies need to be very stringent.

It is precisely for this reason, on April 17, 2015, Maharashtra’s Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) reportedly raided the premises of e-commerce major Snapdeal.com for allegedly selling medicines, including prescription drugs.

Immediately thereafter, the company announced that it has delisted the drugs on its portal and is assisting the FDA in the investigation.

Taking note of the prevailing scenario of illegal online sales of prescription drugs through e-commerce sites in India, DCGI office has reportedly started studying the existing regulations internationally to come out with a set of rules for online pharmacies. Meanwhile, DCGI has reportedly appointed the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) as the nodal agency for consolidating the guidelines.

Be that as it may, experts believe that online sale of drugs should be permitted in India only with strict and well thought out norms, which are enforceable hundred percent, anywhere within the country. Stringent guidance should be formulated in the amendment bill, 2015 of Drugs & Cosmetics Act & Rules, accordingly.

Conclusion:

Keeping this emerging scary scenario in perspective on the menace of fake drugs, the message of the CBI Director in this regard must be noted by the Government with all seriousness…continuing ‘all is well’ signals from the DCGI, not withstanding.

All stakeholders of the pharmaceutical industry must be made aware, on a continuous basis, of the health hazards posed by fake medicines in India.

As the penetration of Internet keeps increasing at a galloping speed in the country, unregulated online sales of ‘fake drugs’ in the guise of ‘licensed medicines’, pose a very real threat to public health and safety. If and when online sales of medicines are legalized, enforcement of all rules and laws in this regards need to be very stringent with exemplary punitive actions prescribed, for even slightest violations.

In tandem, the DCGI and other regulatory and enforcement agencies in the states, healthcare professionals, patients, all pharmaceutical manufacturers, drug distributors, wholesalers and retailers should join hands to play a proactive role in curbing the menace of ‘fake medicines’ that victimize the innocent patients.

No Wolf in sheep’s clothing must be allowed coming anywhere in the near vicinity…at all.

By: Tapan J. Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.