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Europe: now emerging as a more preferred market for the domestic Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

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Since almost last 30 years the Pharmaceutical Industry of India has been a net foreign exchange earner. Deutche Bank Researchindicates that over the last ten years the export surplus has widened from EUR 370 million to EUR 2 billion.Around 80% of these pharmaceuticals manufactured in India are sold to the US and Europedriven by higher purchasing power of the people in those countries and also due to recent regulatory changes towards greater cost containment initiatives by the respective governments.
Europe – a preferred destination for Indian Pharmaceutical companies:

In the quagmire of global recession, prompted by increasing pricing pressure with consequent pressure on the bottom-line, many Indian pharmaceutical companies have started increasing their focus on Europe. The European generics market is now growing faster than overcrowded US generics market.

Top domestic Indian pharmaceutical Companies like Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Glenmark, Wockhardt and Aurobindo whose performance is highly dependent on their revenues from the US and Europe perhaps will need to have a sharper look at both western and eastern Europe.

It has been reported that because of higher volume penetration of over 55% of generics pharmaceuticals in Europe, which is significantly higher than US, Europe offers an attractive and better growth opportunities to the Indian pharmaceutical companies in the medium to longer term. Companies like Ranbaxy, Wockhardt and Aurobindo have already reported to have started showing higher revenue growth in Europe than USA.

Major merger and Acquisition (M&A) initiatives of the Indian pharmaceutical companies in Europe augur well towards this direction. Ranbaxy has already acquired companies in France, Belgium, Romania and Zydus Cadila in France. DRL purchased Betapharm in Germany.

Inorganic growth will demand a more cautious approach:

However, the path of M&A by Indian pharmaceutical companies should be treaded with more caution. The case in point is Wockhardt, which grew with a scorching pace of over 30% on an average for several years in the recent past driven by its inorganic growth strategy. In 2006-07 Wockhardt acquired two companies in Europe, one in Ireland and the other in France. Unfortunately, the company could not manage its rapid growth through such M&A as efficiently for long and got entangled in a debt trap of around Rs. 34,000 crore in that process.

Converting problems into opportunities:

Global financial meltdown throws open an opportunity for the Indian pharmaceutical companies to acquire the distressed specialty pharmaceutical companies at a very competitive price in Europe. Many small pharmaceutical companies in Europe are now looking to sell their facilities because of difficulty in maintaining their business arising out of higher operating costs.

In such a scenario after acquiring a company in those countries, the Indian acquirer will have an opportunity to transfer the manufacturing operations to India, where the costs are much lower, keeping just the marketing operations there.

A report from The Economic Times (ET) indicates that Pharmaceutical majors like Zydus Cadilla are looking for acquisition in Spain and Italy and Glenmark in the Eastern Europe. Kemwell of Bangalore has recently acquired the manufacturing plant of Pfizer located in Sweden and has expressed intention to shift their manufacturing operations to India to concentrate only on marketing with the acquired local infrastructure.

Just at the same time and for the same reasons many global pharmaceutical companies plan to outsource their manufacturing requirements from India and China retaining the R&D and marketing operations with them.

Increasing attention on Eastern Europe:

According to PMR, the Polish Market Research company, countries like Ukraine, Bulgaria, Turkey, Russia and Romania are quite attractive for pharmaceuticals business in the Eastern Europe.

In that part of the world, Russia, Romania and Ukraine have been dominating in terms of sustained high growth since last five years. Acquisition of a local company will provide the best option for quick entry into these markets, recommends PMR.

Conclusion:

Global financial meltdown has thrown open many doors of opportunities for rapid entry into both eastern and western European markets by the Indian pharmaceutical companies for better future growth potential. I am sure the domestic pharmaceutical companies will carefully evaluate these opportunities to take appropriate action to catapult themselves to a higher business growth trajectory in the years to come by.

Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Changing recipe for growth in the new paradigm of Indian Pharmaceutical Industry… for its effective implementation there appears to be more questions than answers:

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India, the world’s largest democracy with its economy on a sustained growth track is creating an overall environment for high performance for all key sectors, including pharmaceuticals. In terms of GDP growth India is second only to China and is expected to become the fifth largest economy by 2017.
Dawn of a New Era:
Over a period of time, India has emerged as a fast growing pharmaceutical industry through various policy measures taken by the government of India (GoI). Such policy measures have been very supportive to the domestic companies. The absence of product patents from 1970 to 2005 enabled the Indian pharmaceutical companies to become world’s leading producers of ‘copycat’ versions of patented drugs. Lower cost base and expertise in ‘reverse engineering’ immensely helped the domestic industry to sustain its competitive edge during this period.

New product patent regime in 2005 heralded the dawn of a new era triggering a transformation of the industry. Return of large global companies like, MSD, Roche, Eli Lilly and entry of other company’s like Biogen, Genzyme, Allergan, Astellas, Eisai etc together with the emergence of many Indian companies to become research-based multinationals, are making this transformation more interesting.

Generic pharmaceuticals will continue to play a significant role:

Even with all these changes, generic pharmaceutical products will continue to play a significant role towards the growth of the industry. While being major global generic players, some large Indian companies like Dr. Reddy’s laboratories (DRL), Glenmark, Ranbaxy, Piramal Healthcare etc have commenced their journey on the long road of product discovery research with reasonable amount of initial success. There are now several new drug development programs by many of these Indian pharmaceutical companies, which will hopefully result in global product launches in not too distant future. India’s emphasis on research and development and new drug discovery is indeed growing since the country signed WTO agreement for product patent in 1995.

An industry with high success quotient:

Currently India is the world’s fourth largest producer of pharmaceuticals by volume and directly employs about 5 lakh people. The market is crowded with 20,000 pharmaceutical firms, 60,000 distributors and 700,000-800,000 retailers. Although there are around 5,600 licensed generics players, in reality around 3,000 of them are engaged in pharmaceutical production. The domestic pharmaceutical companies now cater to about 70% of the country’s requirements for medicines. The top 10 companies control about 30% and 250 companies control around 70% of the market.

Key determinants of success:

Following in my view are the key determinants, which will decide the extent of success of the Indian pharmaceutical industry as a whole:

• Healthcare delivery and infrastructure

• Access and affordability of modern medicines

• IPR environment

• Domestic R&D success

• Speed of regulatory reform process

• Disease trends and prescription patterns

• Public and private healthcare spending

• Penetration of health insurance

Domestic companies adopting different business model:

In this changing scenario different domestic companies are adopting different business models, as follows:

1. Penetration to the regulated generics markets:

- With partnership agreements with established generic companies

- Setting up own sales and marketing organisations both greenfield and also through acquisitions

- With acquisition of manufacturing facilities

2. Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS):

Ballooning costs for research and development and low productivity have prompted the research-based global pharmaceutical companies to outsource part of their research and manufacturing activities to lower-cost, developing nations like, India and China.

India is gradually emerging as a competitive hub for CRAMS. The country is playing a significant role in manufacturing Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and intermediates for the global pharmaceutical industry. We have also seen the global pharmaceutical companies signing-up long-term outsourcing contracts with the Indian manufacturing and contract research organizations.

Generic pharmaceuticals produced in India are increasingly being accepted all over the world, excepting some recent US-FDA related issues. Many Indian companies like Piramal Healthcare, Aurobindo, DRL etc are taking up global generic manufacturing contracts for the global players like, Allergan, Pfizer and GSK, in addition to marketing generic pharmaceuticals themselves. Outsourcing of such business processes to India has undoubtedly been proved to be not only effective in saving costs, but also in saving valuable developmental time for the Multinational companies (MNCs).

Besides all these, India is emerging as the preferred destination for outsourcing clinical trials because of its both high quality and lower cost facilities of global standards.

3. Operating in domestic generic market

4. Investing more in R&D for discovery of NCE/NME

Key growth drivers:

A recent study jointly undertaken by the Organization of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI) and Yes Bank identified following key growth drivers for the domestic pharmaceutical Industry:

• Consolidation leading to better pricing

• Population growth, changing demographics and urbanization

• Increasing per capita income leading to higher penetration

• Access to quality healthcare through health insurance schemes

• Robust product patent regime, although generics will continue to grow

The questions to ponder:

1. Whether domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies will make large-scale investments in R&D to compete effectively with the global companies across the world?

2. Whether global pharmaceutical companies will be successful in marketing drugs patented in India?

3. Whether the government, physicians and patients keep supporting the generics?

4. How will the new Drug Policy be?

5. How will the government go about improving access to modern medicines from the current level of 35% to 100% of the Indian population?

Conclusion:

It is not quite easy to gauge the rate of progress of the Indian pharmaceutical industry in the new paradigm, at this stage. One of the key growth drivers of the domestic pharmaceutical industry has been the launch of a slew of new products of various types. The pipe line of such products has already started drying up in a comparative yardstick, in post product patent regime. Consequently, as already launched such new products reach the maturity stage from the growth phase of their ‘product life cycle’, a possible slowdown in the rate of growth of the respective companies in the domestic market is well anticipated.

There are other growth drivers though, for the industry, but how will these drivers actually drive the industry growth will, to a large extent, depend on proper answers to the above five questions. Thus, in the new paradigm though the growth recipe is ready, in its effective implementation there are more questions than answers.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Union Budget 2009-10: there is something to cheer for the Pharmaceutical Industry

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Union Budget 2009-10 has reflected the intention of the new UPA Government to sharpen its focus on healthcare through various budgetary/fiscal measures and support. Although general expectations were more for a significant increase in the healthcare expenses as a % of GDP, the union budget proposals have satisfactorily addressed the key issues in the following five key areas of healthcare, to the extent possible by the Government at this stage:A. Infrastructure buildingB. Improving access to medicines

C. Reduction in transaction costs of Medicines

D. Incentivising R&D

E. Reduction in tax burden

A. Infrastructure building:

The Finance Minister has rightly focused on improvement of healthcare infrastructure of the country by increasing allocation under National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) by Rs.2,057 crore over interim budget 2009-10 of Rs.12,070 crore.

B. Improving access to medicines:

The budget proposal of covering all BPL families under Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY) with an increase in allocation by 40% is expected to help improving healthcare access. This is an increase over previous allocation of Rs. 350 crore.

C. Reduction in transaction costs of Medicines:

Reduction of Customs Duty for drugs used for cardiovascular diseases, influenza vaccine, breast cancer, hepatitis B, rheumatic arthritis and also for bulk drugs used for the manufacture of such drugs from 10% to 5% and total exemption of Excise and Countervailing Duty for these drugs will help in reduction of transaction costs of these medicines.

The drugs in question are Abatacept, Daptomycin, Entacevir, Fondaparinux Sodium, Influenza Vaccine, Ixabepilone, Lapatinib, Pegaptanib Sodium injection, Suntunib Malate, Tocilizumab.

Basic Custom duty on specified heart devices, namely Artificial Heart (left ventricular assist device) and Patent Ductus Arteriosus(‘PDA’)/Atrial Septal Occlusion device has also been reduced from 7.5% to 5%. Drugs and Pharmaceutical products of Chapter 30 and medical equipment continue to attract central excise duty of 4%.

However, the Industry expected that Government will take similar action for all life-saving drugs.

D. Incentivising R&D:

Extension of scope of current weighted deduction of 150% on expenditure incurred on in-house R&D to all manufacturing businesses except for a small negative list, is a welcome step.

E. Reduction in tax burden:

Following tax proposals of the Finance Minister will benefit the pharmaceutical Industry:

• Abolition of Fringe Benefit Tax (FBT)

• Extension of tax holidays for exporters upto 2011

• Tax incentives for the business of setting up and operating “Cold Chain” which is an integral part in the logistics for vaccines and many biotech products.

The Economic Survey 2008-09 highlights that the economy of the country has grown by 6.67% despite global economy meltdown. It indicates a sign of revival in domestic investment and the return of a climate of optimism. For the Pharmaceutical Industry, the Economic Survey comments as follows:

“The drugs price control should be limited to essential drugs in which there are less than 5 producers. All others should have been decontrolled”.

This issue I hope will be addressed in subsequent policy announcements by the Government.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Managing expectations of the emerging markets of the world, proactively, will differentiate winners from the rest, in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry.

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Change or Perish:In Mid 2007, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) recommended to the research-based global pharmaceutical companies that for sustainable business performance they should move a part of their expenditure from marketing to research. They also recommended that the drug prices should be related to incremental efficacy that the products would provide. That global pharmaceutical business model is “economically unsustainable and operationally incapable of acting quickly enough to produce the types of innovative treatments demanded by global markets” as a challenge of change, was forecasted in 2007 by PwC in their ‘Pharma 2020: The vision’, report.Fast evolving scenario:

The global pharmaceutical industry scenario is fast evolving. More drugs are going off patent than what the innovator companies can replace with the new products. The research is undoubtedly failing to deliver.

At the same time, the business growth in the developed markets of the world has been declining over a period of time. The growth in the top two pharmaceutical markets of the world viz, USA and Japan has gone negative. IMS predicted in their recent ‘CEO Conclave’ in Mumbai that negative trends in these markets will continue even beyond 2013.

In the same conclave IMS predicted that ‘Pharmerging’ markets and Venezuela will drive the growth of the global pharmaceutical industry in the next five year period. Within ‘Pharmerging’ markets, China is expected to record highest CAGR growth of over 25%, followed by India and Turkey around 12-14% each. With such a scorching pace of growth China is expected to become third largest pharmaceutical market in the world in 2013 with India holding its 2008 ranking of no. 13. Venezuela is expected to register highest CAGR growth of around 40% during this period placing itself as the eleventh largest pharmaceutical market of the world, comfortably overtaking India.

Emerging markets will drive global growth:

IMS health reported that last year the global pharmaceutical market recorded a turnover of US$712 billion, which is an increase of US$178 billion over last five years. However, the growth rate has come down to 6.4% compared to 11.8% in 2001. Emerging markets like India, China, Russia, Turkey and South Korea have recorded a growth of 13%, 25.7%, 20.2%, 17.2% and 10.7%, respectively against just 3.8% growth of the US market.

Making up sales revenue of world’s top 10 products:

World’s 10 top selling prescription drugs, as reported by IMS, which will be difficult to replace in terms of single-product value turnover after they go off patent, are as follows:

- Lipitor, US$13.5 billion (Pfizer)

- Plavix, US$7.3 billion (Sanofi-Aventis)

- Nexium, US$7.2 billion (AstraZeneca)

- Seretide/Advair, US$7.1 billion (GlaxoSmithKline)

- Enbrel, US$5.3 billion (Amgen and Wyeth)

- Zyprexa, US$5 billion (Eli Lilly)

- Risperdal, US$4.9 billion (Johnson & Johnson)

- Seroquel, US$4.6 billion (AstraZeneca)

- Singulair, US$4.5 billion (Merck)

- Aranesp, US$4.4 billion (Amgen)

Focus on the emerging markets and other measures are expected to more than offset the loss of revenue and profit for these products.

Key business issues in the emerging markets:

Governments of many of these emerging markets expect some local benefits out of the evolving growth opportunities of the global pharmaceutical companies from their respective countries. Various reports indicate that there will be mainly the following two key issues in these markets:

• Local manufacturing of products
• Pricing

Local manufacturing:

Out of these emerging markets, Indonesia has clearly spelt out its intention by specifying that the pharmaceutical companies marketing their products in Indonesia will need to establish local manufacturing facilities. The new rule is directed towards local job creation.

The Health Minister of Indonesia has said, “If they want to get licenses (to sell their products) they have to invest here also, not just take advantage of the Indonesian market.” The Minister further added, “they can’t just operate like a retailer here, with an office that’s three meters by three, and make billions of rupiah. That’s not fair.” It has been reported that India and China may also come out with similar requirements for their respective countries.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce has registered a strong protest in this matter with the President of Indonesia and has urged a reversal of this decision. However, the country appears to have taken a firm stand in this matter. This is evident when in response to the report that some global pharmaceutical companies have threatened withdrawal of their business from Indonesia because of this reason, the Health Minister retorted, “If they want to go away, go ahead.”

Pricing:

Anticipating such moves in the emerging markets, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has already started reducing the prices of its products in the emerging markets.

The visionary CEO of GSK, Andrew witty strongly believes that such price reduction will enable more patients in the emerging markets to afford GSK products. Consequently the increased sales volume will not only be able to offset the price loss but will also create a substantial goodwill for the company in these markets.

Quoting Andrew Witty the ‘Wall Street Journal’ (WSJ) reported that in Philippines, GSK has reduced the price of 28 products by 30% to 50%. In other emerging markets in Asia including India, Malaysia and Thailand the company has reduced the prices of Cervarix, its cervical cancer vaccine, substantially.

Price reductions made by GSK in Philippines in March have started paying rich dividends to the company with 15% to 40% increase in sales revenue.

Conclusion:

To achieve the growth objectives in the emerging markets of the world, global pharmaceutical companies will need to find out a win-win solution. Andrew Witty of GSK has set examples in this area with various path breaking initiatives. Pricing and local manufacturing of products, in that order, are expected to be the key issues in the business model for emerging markets of the global pharmaceutical companies. Witty has responded to such expectations proactively and in an exemplary way. His vision is widely expected to be emulated by many others, as we move on, in the interest of all stakeholders.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Contract Research – a rapidly evolving business opportunity in India: Is the Pharmaceutical Industry making the best use of it?

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A quick perspective of the ‘new-era’ pharmaceutical R&D in India:
Since 1970 up until 2005, Indian pharmaceutical industry used to be considered as the industry of ‘reverse engineering’ and that too with an underlying disparaging tone… and also as the industry of ‘copycat’ medicines’.

However, it will be absolutely unfair on my part to comment that only domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies launched ‘copycat’ versions of patented products in India and no multinational companies (MNCs) resorted to this practice, during this period.

Long before Indian Product Patent regime was put in place, in January 1, 2005, around 1998/99 Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) entered into a bilateral agreement with Novo Nordisk and Ranbaxy with Bayer of Germany to out-license two New Chemical Entities (NCEs) and a New Drug Delivery System (NDDS), respectively for further development.

Opened the new vistas of opportunities:

These research initiatives opened the new vistas of opportunities for the Indian pharmaceutical industry in terms of R&D, in the pharmaceutical science. The above new developments also brought in a sense of determination within the research oriented domestic pharmaceutical players to enter into the big ticket game of the global pharmaceutical industry called ‘product discovery research’.

The jubilation of the industry having demonstrated its initial capability of taking a leap into forthcoming new paradigm of that time, received a set back momentarily when Novo Nordisk terminated the development of both the NCEs of DRL, after a couple of years, because of scientific reasons. However, DRL continued to move on to its chosen path, undeterred by the initial set back.

Need to focus on R&D and create world class ‘Intellectual Properties’:

In a letter addressed to the shareholders of DRL in one of its recent annual reports, the founder and the chairman of the company Dr. Anji Reddy expressed his following vision:

“Excelling in the basic business operations will be necessary, but not sufficient. To maintain a long-term presence in the global pharmaceuticals markets and to grow profitably will require companies to be even more focused on R&D and creation of successful IPR’s [intellectual property rights].”

After India signed the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement, Indian pharmaceutical companies were quick to make out that the ball game of doing pharmaceutical business in the new IPR regime will be quite different. Having pharmaceutical product patents will indeed be important in future, for the domestic R&D based pharmaceutical companies.

The Past versus Present R&D models in India:

Domestic research based pharmaceutical companies did realize in the early days that a radical shift in their focus from ‘process research’ to ‘product discovery research’ may not be prudent or practical either.

Some of these companies initiated step-wise approach from mid 90’s to meet the challenge of change, come year 2005. During the transition period of 10 years as given by the WTO to India from 1995 to 2005, some domestic companies wanted to make full use of their past R&D model.

The past model:

Before the product patent regime, Indian pharmaceutical companies used to manufacture and market generic equivalents of the patented drugs at a fraction of the price of the originators, with non-infringing process technology in the Indian domestic market and also for export to the other non-regulated markets. During the WTO transition period of 10 years, they increased the pace of utilization of this model and launched as many ‘copycat’ versions of the new products as possible to boost up their sales and profit.

The present model for regulated markets:

Following two strategies are followed:

1. Indian companies doing generic business in the regulated markets like the USA submit
“Abbreviated New Drug Application” (ANDA) to the drug regulator for approvals of drugs,
which will go off patent within the next few years, so that the generic products could be launched
immediately after patent expiry.

2. Many other companies follow the second avenue, simultaneously, which is though risky but very
remunerative. In this case, the generic market entry takes place by challenging the patents of the
innovators.

It is believed that this model is being used by the Indian pharmaceutical companies, primarily to raise financial resources to get more engaged in their drug discovery initiatives or to generate wherewithal for collaborative or contract research initiatives.

For short term business growth and to raise fund for discovery research, their non-infringing process research initiatives have been proved to be quite useful. These R&D based Indian pharmaceutical companies; seem to understand very well that discovery of NCEs/NMEs or getting involved in this process will ultimately be ‘the name of the game’ to fuel longer term business growth of their respective organizations.

Contract Research (CR) in India:

Contract research is another business model within the overall R&D space, where a significant part of the investments come from the collaborators. CR business model currently explore the following two key options:

Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) for the discovery will go to the global collabolator and the
Indian CR organization will get an upfront or milestone payments.

 Along with funding support to the CR organization, IPR is shared by both the companies
depending on the terms of agreement.

There could be many other terms/clauses in such CR agreements, which are not within the scope of this discussion.

Types of Contract Research (CR):

Frost & Sullivan in one of their studies on Indian R&D opportunities indicated following three models of contract research:

1. Joint research: Here two or more collaborators will work jointly

2. Collaborative research: In this type of research, scientists of different disciplines work together on a project e.g. Ranbaxy has recently entered into a collaborative research program with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) or collaboration of Ranbaxy to develop an anti-malarial NCE Rbx 11160 with Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), Geneva.

3. Complete outsourcing: When an altogether different research organization is assigned a research project by another organization. Some Indian research based pharmaceutical companies have already got engaged in these types contract research activities. The market of contract research is expected to grow much faster in the near future.

India – an attractive contract research destination:

A global survey done by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) couple of years ago on the preferred centres for overseas contract research, published as follows:

• 39% preference for China

• 28% preference for India

Attractiveness as preferred contract research center was based on the following criteria:

• A place where companies can tap into existing networks of scientific and technical expertise

• Has good links to academic research facilities

• Provides an environment where innovation is supported and easy to commercialize.

Many global pharmaceutical companies believe that China scores over India on the third point, as mentioned above.

Indian pharmaceutical companies have commenced targeting contract research opportunities:

Research based Indian pharmaceutical companies companies like, Piramal Healthcare, Ranbaxy, DRL, Zydus Cadilla, Glenmark etc are now actively targeting international companies for contract research in custom synthesis, medicinal chemistry and clinical studies.

A medium-sized pharma company Shasun Chemicals and Drugs has been reported to have defined its business as an “integrated research and manufacturing solutions provider”. Similarly Divi’s Laboratories, a pharmaceutical company of similar size has collaborated with global multinational companies for both custom synthesis and contract research projects.

Some international CROs, like Quintiles have its establishments in Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Mumbai with great expectations and a robust business model.

New contract research opportunities in Biopharmaceuticals:

Besides pure pharmaceutical companies, an emerging opportunity is seen within the biotech companies in India, which are mostly engaged in a contract model. Novartis has inked a three year deal with Synergene (Biocon) for various research projects primarily in the early stages of development in cardiovascular and oncology therapy areas.

Likewise, Reliance Life Sciences are involved in chemistry, biology and contract clinical research activities.

Another research process outsourcing company, Avesthagen is engaged in collaborative research in metabolics, proteomics, genomics and sequencing. The company shares the IPR with the collaborators.

Jubilant Biosys of India, which has already partnered in a drug development deal with Eli Lilly has recently entered into another research and development deal with AstraZeneca, estimated to be worth up to US$220 million. This research collaboration will be funded by AstraZeneca for five years and they will own the patent of any neuroscience molecule that will come out of this collaborative agreement.

Contract research – a lucrative business model:

A UBS Warburg study indicated that around 20% to 25% of R&D investments in the US go towards contract research. This percentage is expected to increase as the pressure to contain R&D expenses keeps mounting, especially in the US and EU.

Currently the cost of bringing an NCE/NME to market from its R&D stage is estimated to be around US$ 1.7 billion. Across the world efforts are being generated to bring down these mounting expenses towards R&D.

Many experts believe that cost of innovation in India will be almost half of what it will be in the US and EU. A report from Zinnov Management Consulting forecasts that towards outsourcing by the global pharmaceutical companies, India has the potential to earn about US$2.5 billion by 2012.

Conclusion:

Currently, within CR space India is globally considered as a more mature venue for chemistry related drug-discovery activities than China. However, in biotech space China is ahead of India. Probably, because of this reason, companies like, Divi’s Laboratories, Avesthagen, Ranbaxy, Synergene, Jubilant Biosys, Reliance Life Science, DRL, Zydus Cadilla, Glenmark and Piramal Healthcare could enter into long-term collaborative arrangements with Multinational Companies (MNC)to discover and develop New Chemical Entities (NCEs).

As I said earlier quoting Korn/Ferry that in the CR space China’s infrastructure is better than India, primarily due to firm commitment of the Chinese government to derive maximum benefits of the globalization process in the country.

Prudent policy reforms and other measures as expected from the new UPA Government will hopefully help bridging the gap between the Chinese and Indian pharmaceutical industry in the space of overall CR business including biotechnology, as Indian R&D based pharmaceutical companies will start realizing and encashing the potential of this important business model.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Is rural India emerging as the new ‘Eldorado’ for the Indian pharmaceutical industry?

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“If we stop thinking of the poor as victims or as a burden and start recognizing them as resilient and creative consumers, a whole new world of opportunity will open up,” wrote the management guru C K Prahalad in his well known book titled, “The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid”.I am not sure whether the above profound observation is encouraging the pharmaceutical companies to spread their wings, at a much organized way, in rural India, where over 70% of the Indian population live and most of them are poor.Rural reforms have commenced in India at a much faster pace than ever before. Even many die-hard skeptics will now agree that the “Rural India has started Shining”. The shine, however, may not be as much as it ought to be. But surely, it is happening. The result of recent General Election in India perhaps will vindicate this point.

Is rural India the new growth opportunity for the pharmaceutical industry?

Decent business prospects in largely un-tapped rural India are making the pharmaceutical companies to move into this uncharted frontier. Reaching out to about 65% of the population who do not have access to modern medicines, could prove to be the new ‘Eldorado’ for the industry. Some well organized but small preparatory steps are already being taken towards this direction, which ultimately could lead to taking a giant leap towards this new frontier.

Some companies have started charting in a new way in this much uncharted frontier:

Possibly as a testimony to this new business approach we can now see:

1. Novartis with its “Arygoya Parivar” initiative working out a tailor-made program for rural areas of seven selected states, to start with. They have developed special packs of essential medicines with special prices to reach out to the rural marketing population.

2. Novo Nordisk screening patients suffering from diabetes in the rural areas of Goa with mobile clinics.

3. Eli Lilly developing a program along with the Self-Employed Women’s Association in Ahmedabad to educate and encourage rural patients suffering from tuberculosis to go for treatment.

4. Ahmedabad based Cadila Pharma setting up a dedicated rural marketing arm called ‘Explora’, which has already clocked a reported annual turnover of Rs. 50 crore.

5. Vadodara based Alembic Chemicals creating a rural business unit called ‘Maxis’.

6. Piramal Healthcare launching a pilot project in Rajasthan to take its products to rural areas where there is no proper public health system.

These are just a few illustrations and not an exhaustive list. However, the question is whether the rural marketing initiatives will continue to remain an illusion to the pharmaceutical companies in India or will get translated into a decent strategic move?

Going by various published reports, it appears that fortune still exists at the bottom of the pyramid.
In 2007 the rural markets registered a growth of over 40% over the previous year. This scorching pace of rural market growth is expected to continue in the next decades.

Moreover, according to McKinsey Report, rural markets will contribute about 27% of the total consumption of India by 2020 and by 2015, rural India will account for over 24% of the domestic pharmaceutical market from its current level of 17%.

Rural market size:

The rural markets currently contribute about 17% of U.S$8.1 billion pharmaceutical market in India. As reported in ‘India Pharma 2015’ of McKinsey,” by 2015 rural pharma market size is expected to reach U.S$4.8 billion from U.S$1.2 billion in 2005.”

Key growth drivers, as McKinsey indicated in this report, will be as follows:

• Income growth: 40%
• Medical infrastructure: 20%
• Health insurance penetration: 15%

Rural markets are currently dominated by ailments related to various types of infections. This disease pattern is expected to change by the next decade to non-infectious chronic illness, like diabetes, cardiac diseases, cancer, hypertension etc.

The opportunities in the rural markets:

‘The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid’, the famous observation of the management guru C.K. Prahalad is equally apt for the pharmaceutical industry of India, where the just 35% of the population has access to affordable modern medicines.

Further, 20 million middle class households living in about 6,00,000 villages, which is almost the same as the number of middle class households residing in urban India, is currently instrumental to significant increase towards healthcare spending in rural India.

Rural market entry strategy:

Instead of transplanting the urban marketing strategy into rural India, some companies like, Novartis, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, as mentioned above, have taken the community-welfare route to make the rural population aware of particular disease segments like, tuberculosis, diabetes, waterborne diseases etc together with the treatments available for such ailments.

These value added marketing strategies offer benefits to both the patients and the company concerned. The local medical practitioners, in turn, are also benefitted as they get increasing number of patients in their clinics through such disease awareness community program by the pharmaceutical companies.

Key challenges:

There are some key challenges, as well, for effective rural penetration by the Indian pharmaceutical industry, which are as follows:

• Inadequate basic healthcare infrastructure. Only 20% of total healthcare infrastructure of the country is in rural areas where over 70% population lives.

• Density of doctors per 10,000 populations in India is just 6. About seven lakh villages in India do not have doctors. As per AC Neilsen study, an average rural Indian has to travel about 6 km to visit a doctor. A Medical Representative will require travelling about 250 to 300 km every day just to meet about 10 doctors and 4 dealers.

• Villages are not well connected by proper all season roads.

• Lack of appropriate supply chain network and logistics support.

National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) – a key facilitator:

Be that as it may, greater focus of the new UPA Government on NRHM will help immensely to overcome many of these challenges in various different ways.

In the interim budget 2009, the Government has allocated U.S$ 2.35 billion for the NRHM. It is expected that this initiative, if implemented well, will help improving not only the healthcare infrastructure in rural India, but also supply of affordable medicines, in these long neglected areas.

Conclusion:

With required infrastructural support and tailor made value added marketing strategies for rural India, simultaneously delivering both preventive and curative therapies under one umbrella, it may not be difficult for the Indian pharmaceutical companies to discover ‘The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid’ – a win-win situation indeed for both the ‘haves’ and a vast majority of ‘have nots’ living in India.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

‘Patent Pool’ – is GSK setting a new trend for the global pharmaceutical industry?

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On February 13, 2009, The Guardian reported that Andrew Witty, CEO of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced some significant changes to the way his company will operate in the developing countries of the world.

GSK, as Witty said, will:

• “Cut its prices for all drugs in the 50 least developed countries to no more than 25% of the levels in the UK and US – and less if possible – and make drugs more affordable in middle- income countries such as Brazil and India.

• Put any chemicals or processes over which it has intellectual property rights that are relevant to finding drugs for neglected diseases into a “patent pool”, so they can be explored by other researchers.

• Reinvest 20% of any profits it makes in the least developed countries in hospitals, clinics and staff.

• Invite scientists from other companies, NGOs or governments to join the hunt for tropical disease treatments at its dedicated institute at Tres Cantos, Spain.”

Quoting Andrew Witty, The Guardian reported, “his stance may not win him friends in other drug companies, but he is inviting them to join him in an attempt to make a significant difference to the health of people in poor countries”.

“We work like crazy to come up with the next great medicine, knowing that it’s likely to get used an awful lot in developed countries, but we could do something for developing countries. Are we working as hard on that? I want to be able to say yes we are, and that’s what this is all about – trying to make sure we are even-handed in terms of our efforts to find solutions not just for developed but for developing countries,” Witty envisioned.

“I think the shareholders understand this and it’s my job to make sure I can explain it. I think we can. I think it’s absolutely the kind of thing large global companies need to be demonstrating, that they’ve got a more balanced view of the world than short-term returns,” he expressed Knowing full well that his comments will be considered as quite radical within the global pharmaceutical Industry.

The unorthodox young CEO of GSK continued, “I think it’s the first time anybody’s really come out and said we’re prepared to start talking to people about pooling our patents to try to facilitate innovation in areas where, so far, there hasn’t been much progress.”

Definition of ‘Patent Pool’:

The ‘Patent Pool’ is defined as, “an agreement between different owners, including companies, governments and academic bodies to make available patent rights on non-exclusive basis to manufacturers and distributor of drugs against payment of royalties”

Thus one of the often repeated key benefits of the ‘Patent Pool’, as considered by its proponent, is that the system enables the use of innovation against payment of royalties, without the risk of patent infringement.

The rationale for ‘Patent Pool’ system:

Many experts in this area feel that the conventional patent system does not really work for the diseases of the poor, all over the world. Though the concept of ‘Patent Pool’ is quite new in the global pharmaceutical industry, this system is being very successfully and widely practised within the Information Technology (IT) industry. ‘Patent Pool’ system, if effectively used, can also help the global pharmaceutical companies to improve their access to many more developing countries of the world.

GSK appears to have kick started the process:

Andrew witty of GSK is undoubtedly the first CEO of a global pharmaceutical company to announce a ‘Patent Pool’ system for research on 16 neglected tropical diseases like, tuberculosis, malaria, filariasis leprosy and leishmaniasis. GSK has, in a real sense, kick started the process by putting more than 500 granted pharmaceuticals patents and over 300 pending applications in the ‘Patent Pool’.

Key requirements for the ‘Patent Pool’:

Careful identification of various patents, which will be essential for the pool, will be one of the key requirements to initiate a ‘Patent Pool’ system. It makes the need to obtain individual patents, required in the process of a drug discovery, less important.

Key issues with the ‘Patent Pool’ concept:

It has been reported, from a WHO conference held in April, 2006 ‘Innovation Strategy Today’ worked out that the start-up costs of a ‘Patent Pool’ for vaccines will be economically viable only if more than 25 participants holding relevant patents join the initiative.

Moreover, various types of litigations, related to patents, which we are currently witnessing within the global pharmaceutical industry, could also be impediment in getting more patents in the pool.

Conclusion:

The initiative to create a ‘Patent Pool’ system in the global pharmaceutical industry, especially for the diseases of the poor, as enunciated by the CEO of GSK, is indeed a path breaking one. Such initiatives are likely to have very positive contribution in solving the problem of access to affordable medicines, especially in the developing world.

In fact, the Council of Science and Industrial Research of the Government of India, lead by its Director General, Dr. Samir Brahmachari has already undertaken similar initiatives in the country where global experts including academia are actively participating.

Though ‘Patent Pool’ is still an untested model in the global pharmaceutical industry, the recent announcement of GSK towards this direction does appear to offer a realistic and practical approach to address the critical global issue of improving ‘access to affordable innovative modern medicines’ to a vast majority of population in the developing countries of the world.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Key business strategies of global pharmaceutical industry are undergoing a radical change, while in India we are still thinking within the box. Who cares about the global clue?

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One of the leading consulting companies, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in its report of June 2007 titled “Pharma 2020: The vision –Which path will you take?” postulated that the business model followed by the global pharmaceutical companies is, “economically unsustainable and operationally incapable of acting quickly enough to produce the types of innovative treatments demanded by global markets”.
R&D is failing to deliver:Datamonitor highlighted that drugs worth U.S$ 140 billion will go off patent by 2016. Thus the value turnover that will be lost because of number of drugs going off-patent will be almost impossible to replace by this time. Many analysts have been expressing concerns about gradual but steady decline in pharmaceutical R&D productivity since quite some time. During this period, most of the research based companies could afford only a small increase in their R&D budget, while marketing and other overhead expenditures registered a significant increase.

Single global process of Drug Regulatory approval…is possible…but is it probable?

PwC in the same report touched upon another interesting possibility within the R&D space of the global pharmaceutical industry. It indicated that the research based pharmaceutical companies will gradually switch over from, “Classic model of drug development that ends in regulatory approval to ‘live licenses’ that allow for narrow product launches followed by gradually expanding approvals as drugs are continuously tested.”

Most interestingly, the report also forecasted that by 2020, the drug regulators across the world will work together under a collaborative framework to arrive at uniform and single global process of drug regulatory approval. If it materializes, the process will indeed be path breaking in every sense.

Global pharmaceutical market will register significant growth:

Following this trend, the report highlighted, that the global pharmaceutical sales will touch U.S$ 1.3 trillion by 2020, almost double of what it is today. High growth of emerging markets and the aging global population are expected to be the key growth drivers.

During this period E7 countries like, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey and Indonesia are expected to contribute around 20% of Global Pharmaceutical turnover. Keeping pace with the economic progress, the disease pattern of these countries are also changing, from infectious diseases to non-infectious chronic illnesses, like diabetes, hypertension, just as we now observe in the developed world.

Together with this change, many predict that ‘greenhouse effect’ arising out of global warming process will have significant impact on health of the global population, resulting in large scale re-emergence of diseases like malaria and cholera together with various types of respiratory disorders.

Radical change is envisaged in pharmaceuticals marketing:

In April 2009, PwC came out with another interesting report titled, “Pharma 2020: Challenging business models, which path will you take?” on the future of the global pharmaceutical industry.

As the time progresses global pharmaceutical companies will need to understand the shift in ‘perceived value’ that is taking place within patients, medical profession and the community as a whole towards healthcare delivery. Just an innovative medicine will no longer be able to satisfy their ‘value expectations’. Pharmaceutical companies will have to offer a ‘bundle of benefits’, combining the innovative products with related health services, for which the market will not hesitate to pay a reasonable premium.

Thus in future, global pharmaceutical companies will need to collaborate with disease management specialists for a “holistic offering” to address an ailment rather than just treatment of the disease with medicines. Such “value added and innovative” marketing strategies will differentiate business success from failure, in 2020.

In the recent report PwC advocates that to be successful, in future, global pharmaceutical companies will need to change their ball game almost radically. The future strategy will focus on collaborative arrangements between various allied healthcare establishments and the pharmaceutical companies to offer a “holistic solution” to the patients in all disease areas.

That means, global manufacturer of an anti-diabetic drug will need to offer along with the innovative drug, counseling on diet regimen, suggesting exercise programs and their follow-up, reminders for regular and timely intake of medicines and many more. Who knows?

“Better late than never”:

In any case, to excel in business at a time when the global pharmaceutical business model is undergoing a fundamental shift; there is a need to keep on investing more towards R&D, which will continue to remain the ultimate growth engine of pharmaceutical business, the world over. At the same time, there will be a dire need to prune expenditure in innovative ways and that opens the door for global outsourcing of various business processes from most cost efficient countries having world class facilities.

Domestic pharmaceutical players, if start mustering all resources to avail these global opportunities, India can soon become a global hub for pharmaceuticals outsourcing, outracing China which is currently placed ahead of India, in this field. As the good old saying goes, I shall always wish, “better late than never”.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.