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Covid 2.0 Rampages India As Top Echelon Policy Makers Ignore Science

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‘India is in the endgame of COVID,’ announced the union health minister of India, just in the last month – March 08, 2021. Although, it was then clearly known to medical fraternity that today’s Covid vaccines won’t be magic bullets against rapidly mutating new Coronavirus. Interestingly, a scientific-data based MIT study, published last year – on July 01, 2020 predicted that India might record the highest ever in the world – 287,000 new Coronavirus cases per day, by February 2021. At that juncture also Covid vaccines were expected to be available in India before that predicted time frame. The MIT study warning received a wide coverage even in India - by almost all news dailies, on that very month of the last year. The national Covid management team did not seem to have taken it seriously, along with others. These include, besides the top echelon of governance – a vast majority of Indians – across the social, political, religious and economic strata.

The fallout of such callousness – both at the individual Covid-appropriate behavior level, as well as Covid governance level, have been more disastrous than what was forecasted even in the above MIT study. The ferocity and scale of the second Covid-19 wave in India did not just overwhelm the nation, but raised grave concern across the world too. On April 22, 2021, India recorded the world’s biggest ever single-day rise with 314,835 new cases of Covid-19, causing death to 2,104 people. The very next day, this number increased to 332,730 new cases with 2263 deaths.

But, the peak of the Covid second wave hasn’t come, just yet. According to a mathematical model developed by a team of scientists from the IIT Kanpur and reported by news media on April 22, 2021, the number of active covid-19 cases in India during the second wave is expected to peak in May. The daily infection count is expected to exceed 350,000 cases. In this article, I shall dwell on three specific areas – acknowledging that the current scenario is the outcome of national misjudgment, if not a humongous misgovernance to prepare India for Covid 2.0:

  • Current struggle of India’s fragile and long-ignored health care infrastructure.
  • Need to neutralize some general misgivings on Covid vaccines and associated dilemmas.
  • Who is equipped to save people, if no external remedial measures remain unavailable for some more time?

India’s fragile and long-ignored health infrastructure can’t take anymore:

Amid this calamity, India has run short of oxygen, hospital beds, important Covid medicines, including Remdesivir. Curiously, reports keep coming incessantly confirm and reconfirm: ‘Ever since the second wave of the pandemic started, the healthcare systems in India have been teetering on the brink, with many hospitals unable to handle the relentless inflow of patients whilst also running short of beds, oxygen cylinders and other essentials.’

Doctors and many health care workers are overwhelmed by the massive scale of the human tragedy and in tears, as they articulate: ‘Many lives could have been saved had there been enough beds, oxygen supplies, ventilators and other resources – if the healthcare system had been better prepared for the second wave.’

The Supreme Court intervened, noting the ‘grim situation’ in the country:

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court of India, reportedly, ‘Suo motu’ (on its own) took note of the grim situation in the country and the havoc caused due to shortage of Oxygen cylinders in hospitals. Consequently, on April 22, 2021, the top court said, ‘it expected the Centre to come out with a “national plan” on the supply of oxygen and essential drugs for treatment of infected patients and method and manner of vaccination against the disease.’  The Delhi High Court also observed, “We all know that this country is being run by God,” coming down heavily on the Centre over the Covid-19 management.

Some Covid vaccine related misgivings and dilemmas:

Many people are raising questions of the efficacy of two currently available Covid vaccines in India – Covishield and Covaxin, especially against our probably ‘desi’ double mutant variety of Covid-19. The trepidation increased manifold when India’s former Prime Minister – Dr. Manmohan Singh got Covid infected after taking two doses of Covaxin. Or, reports, such as: ‘Sri Lanka reports six cases of blood clots in AstraZeneca vaccine recipients, 3 dead.’ Incidentally, these vaccines were made in India. Some may not possibly know that both the issues have been deliberated by the Indian scientists, who haven’t expressed any concern, as yet. This has to be shared with all by all concerned, soon. Let me explore some of these related issues, as follows:

Re-infection after taking Covid vaccines:

Regarding re-infection rate after taking two doses of Covid vaccines, the scientists have now released data establishing that only a very small fraction of those vaccinated with either Covaxin or Covishield, have tested positive. In any case, instances of a few “breakthrough” infections do not undermine the efficacy of the vaccines, they added.

The ICMR has also clarified, “These vaccines definitely protect against disease. However, the immune response begins to develop usually two weeks after every dose and there are variations within individuals, too. Even after the first dose, if exposure to the virus happens, one can test positive.”

Efficacy of Covishield and Covaxin against double mutant strains:

Notably, both – the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB) have announced last week that Covishield and Covaxin protect patients even from the ‘double mutant’, B.1.617, variety of Covid-19. Scientists believe that the “double mutant” is responsible for the sudden spike in the number of cases in Maharashtra and other parts of the country. They had earlier feared that this “double mutant” or B.1.617, may escape the immune system and thus vaccines may not offer protection from this strain of the novel coronavirus.

Reported risk of blood clotting with Oxford-AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine:

No cases of blood clotting have come to light in India. However, a government panel of experts is,reportedly, investigating for any domestic cases of blood clotting, even mild ones, as a side effect of the two COVID-19 vaccines being administered in India. According to India’s leading virologist Gagandeep Kang, “blood clots reportedly caused as a result of Oxford-AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine amount to a very small risk.”

As reported on April 24, 2021, the United States has also decided to immediately resume the use of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine, ending a 10-day pause to investigate its link to extremely rare but potentially deadly blood clots. These details, I reckon, need also to be shared with all people, soon, in order to neutralize any doubt on administering Covid vaccines.

Covid vaccine availability and pricing:

Recent media reports highlight, at least six states of India – Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Odisha and Telangana – are facing Covid vaccine shortage, as Covid 2.0 overwhelms India. Most of these states have already apprised the Centre of the situation, as the Supreme Court of India also seeks the details from the center about its current status.

As on April 22, 2021, India has administered over 135 million vaccine doses, where each individual will require two doses. Whereas, as published in Bloomberg on April 23, 2021, ‘1 billion Covid-19 vaccines have been administered around the world.’ The good news is, effective May 01, 2021, everyone above the age of 18 years will be eligible to get vaccinated. The Central Government will also lift its singular control on supply and delivery of Covid-19 vaccines in a bid to tackle the massive rise of cases that have crippled the country’s health infrastructure.

That said, the key question that follows – would Covid vaccine manufacturers be able to meet this increasing demand in India, when there already exists more demand than its supply? According to Niti Aayog Covid-19: Vaccine availability will improve by July 2021. The two major vaccine manufacturers in India are also indicating broadly similar time frame.

Meanwhile, amid a deadly second wave of Covid infections, a third Coronavirus vaccine - Russia’s Sputnik V, has been approved for emergency use in India. Incidentally, Sputnik V’s approval came not before India overtook Brazil to become the country with the second-highest number of cases globally. According to its local distributor – Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, India will start receiving Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine by end May.

Be that as it may, it is still unclear whether enough Covid vaccine doses will be available right from May 1, 2021, to start inoculating all Indians above 18 years of age, across the length and breadth of the country. Besides, SSI’s decision to fix the rate of Covishield vaccine for private hospitals and state governments, has attracted sharp criticism from the Opposition, who argued that there was no logic in charging the state governments a higher price, when the Centre is getting the same vaccine at Rs 150 per dose.

This question surfaces, especially when SII Chief himself acknowledged that they are making profit even with Rs.150/per dose price as the pandemic ravages the nation. A news item of April 24, 2021 also underscores ‘Serum Institute’s Rs.600/dose for Covishield in private hospitals is its highest rate in the world.’ Nonetheless, price sensitivity to Covid vaccines during the pandemic is not specific to India.

Shareholders of Pfizer, J&J, reportedly, are also pushing for detailed COVID-19 pricing strategies of the respective companies, at their annual meetings. Curiously, at the same, yet another report highlights: ‘With the competition struggling, Pfizer’s COVID vaccine sales could hit $24B this year.’ Amazing!

India utterly overwhelmed, angry outbursts of concern beyond its shores:

Witnessing the nature of rampage caused by Covid 2.0 in India, global press blames the Indian top policy makers for utter failure to anticipate and tackle the devastating second wave. For example, The Guardian of the UK flashed a headline on April 21, 2021 – ‘The system has collapsed’: India’s descent into Covid hell.’ It further elaborated: ‘Many falsely believed that the country had defeated Covid. Now hospitals are running out of oxygen and bodies are stacking up in morgues.’ The Times, UK was harsher. It reported, ‘Modi flounders in India’s gigantic second wave.’ It further added: ‘Record levels of infection have put huge strain on the health service and highlighted the perils of complacency in the nationalist government.’

The New York Times reported on April 23, 2021: ‘India’s Health System Cracks Under the Strain as Coronavirus Cases Surge.’ The report also cited examples of ‘recent political rallies held by Mr. Modi that have drawn thousands, as well as the government’s decision to allow an enormous Hindu festival to continue despite signs that it has become a super spreader event.’

Conclusion:

Keeping aside the responsibility, or rather lack of it, of the National Covid governance team, individual Indians – like you and me – can’t in any way shy away from our own responsibility of compliance to Covid appropriate behavior, religiously. We are equally responsible, at least, for our own lives and fate. Even today, many of those who are wearing a face mask, are wearing in the chin – keeping the nose exposed – forget about double masking! Moreover, how many of us were or are eligible for Covid vaccination till date, but did not or could not take?

Curiously, Covid 2.0 is no longer striking mostly the poor urban population, living in slums or hutments, or the migrant laborer. Nor it is attacking mainly the senior citizens or people with co-morbidities. More young people, including children are getting infected in Covid 2.0. In Covid 2.0 – over 90 per cent of Covid new cases concentrate in in high rise and other buildings in major cities, like Mumbai. While urban slums account for just 10 per cent. On April 24, 2021, Bloomberg also reported, ‘India’s Urban Affluent Hit By New Virus Wave After Dodging First.’

Terming Covid 2.0 as concerning and scaring‘, Tata Sons Chairman also said, ‘India needs to get as many different Covid-19 vaccine licenses as possible. And replicate multiple factories on a war footing to ramp up production in order to meet the requirements as the country reels under the devastating second wave of the pandemic.’ It’s incredible, how a small country in the Indian subcontinent – Bhutan with limited resources, got its vaccination plan right and carried out, reportedly, the world’s fastest immunization drive.

Coming back to the last year’s above MIT study forecast for 2021 Covid situation in India. It goes without saying that this one, among several others, was based on credible data. It also brought to the fore the scientific reasons of consequences for not following the norms of Covid appropriate behavior. Looking back and coming back to real life scenario of date, one thing becomes crystal clear. When science is ignored, both at the highest echelon of national governance where the buck stops – or at the individual, social, religious or political level – it is virtually inevitable that a disaster would strike. And in most cases, it will strike hard – very hard. Much beyond what a human can withstand to survive. We have choice for survival – even in today’s frightening scenario. Let’s individually and collectively behave, as the science demands. Life and livelihood are important – for all of us.

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

With Covid’s Second Wave ‘A Nation In Distress’ – Why?

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If someone tries to see a silver lining in the disruptive Covid-19 pandemic, besides its vaccine rollout in some countries, there will be at least one. As of April 17, 2021- over 119 million patients (India – over 12 million), reportedly, have recovered out of 141 million (India – over 15 million) of Covid infected patients.

But this can’t mask the grim reality of over 18 million patients remain still infected, with over 3 million deaths (India – 175,673), since the beginning of the Covid menace. In the Indian perspective, this is the highest ever incidence of death – in absolute numbers – for any reason, so far. Now comes the Covid second wave with its more devastation onslaught on human lives and other consequences for the nation.

In this article, I shall explore this area, as apparently a Tsunami-like the second Covid wave starts sweeping across the India states, posing a greater danger than the first one, to the lives and livelihoods of millions of Indians, yet again. Let me start with a perspective, leading to the current situation.

No clinically proven drugs, as yet:

There aren’t any definite or clinically proven drugs after completion of Phase III studies, as yet, for curing patients from Covid infection. Nor are there any such well proven vaccines with fully known efficacy, safety, time interval between two doses, duration of prevention from Covid infection, in the future. All drugs and vaccines are currently being used under ‘emergency use’ approval by country drug regulators, based on interim results.

At the very onset of Covid-19 first wave, other than some attempts of repurposing older drugs, the world did not have any proven drugs to fight against this deadly infection. The old antimalarial drug Hydroxychloroquine – was tried first, followed by other medications, such as, Lopinavir/Ritonavir. Both created a huge global demand and subsequent shortages, including in the pharmacy of the world– India. Subsequently, W.H.O discontinued hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir treatment arms for COVID-19 based on interim clinical trial data. These results showed, hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir produce little or no reduction in the mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients when compared to standard of care.

At the beginning of the second wave of Covid-19, one of the latest repurposed drugs – remdesivir that is being widely used, especially for hospitalized patients, is also facing a shortage, even in the pharmacy of the world. Interestingly, even ‘Remdesivir has little or no impact on survival, WHO trial shows’.

Also – no clinically fully proven Covid-19 vaccines, as yet:

Possibly, the second-best antidote as of date, against rapidly mutating Covid-19 – after Covid-appropriate behavior by all, comes vaccines. All comes with ‘emergency use’ approval, based on interim results only, and with several challenges. These include efficacy against all mutating Covid-19 variants, exact safety profile, dosage interval and duration of protection. Interestingly, on April 16, 2021, Pfizer indicated that ‘Covid-19 vaccine recipients will “likely” need a third dose between six to 12 months after they’re fully vaccinated and suggested vaccinations for coronavirus could be needed every year.’ In this evolving scenario, Indian experts also acknowledge that - abidance to the defined health norms stays as a lifeguard, and will remain so for an indefinite period.

Several countries, including India, are making, and gradually expanding requisite arrangements to vaccinate their population. Whereas a large number of countries – mostly in the developing world, are still awaiting access to Covid vaccines. Meanwhile, another issue has started bothering many, which the April 10, 2021 issue of The Guardian had captured in its headline – ‘Global Covid vaccine rollout is threatened by a shortage of vital components,’ besides manufacturing capacity constraints compared to the current demand.

Global challenges with Covid vaccines in 2021:

As things have progressed with Covid vaccines, thus far, the year 2021 doesn’t seem to be a smooth run to vaccinate people across the world, deriving a significant outcome against the battle of this global menace. This gets vindicated by the following numbers, as published in the ‘Down to Earth’ magazine on April 13, 2021.

  • According to the Johns Hopkins University, United States, as of April 12, 2021, only 773 million Covid-19 vaccines had been administered across the world. This means, only a little more than 2 per cent of the world’s adult population, has been inoculated so far.
  • According to data analytics firm Airfinity, the world will manufacture 9.5 billion doses by the end 2021. Whereas immediate global need exceeds 14 billion doses to vaccinate the entire adult population.
  • According to Gavi – The Vaccine Alliance, this represents almost three times the number of vaccines the world was producing in the pre-pandemic period for other diseases.

In the midst of these, inoculation with, at least, two major Covid-19 vaccines – one from AstraZenecaand other from Johnson & Johnson, have raised safety concern in the United States and many European countries. These ongoing developments complicate Covid vaccine challenges further.

The Indian scenario – ‘a nation in distress?’

Despite building new and a workable emergency health infrastructure by several state governments to combat Covid-19 pandemic, the fierce attack of the second wave with mutating Covid-19 virus, has already made these bursting at the seams. The article - ‘A tsunami of cases’: desperation as Covid second wave batters India, appeared in ‘The Guardian’ on April 14, 2021, captures this desperate struggle of the nation. Another recent report depicted with grim pictures, how India is grappling with the second wave of Covid-19, terming it as ‘a nation in distress.’ There are enough indications that India’s fragile health infrastructure has already collapsed in some places.

According to another news item on April 14, 2021, more than 111 million people has been vaccinated in India, by that time. Notably, this number was achieved after fears of AstraZeneca’s Covishield vaccine shortages, which subsequently prompted the Indian Government to temporarily halt its exports by the Pune-based vaccine manufacturer – Serum Institute of India (SII).

Going by another estimate, if the current momentum continues, India would be able to vaccinate 40% of its population by December 2021, and 60% of the population by May 2022. The report cautions that ‘the non-availability of vaccines may scuttle the pace.’ As per the W.H.O release, three in five Indians need to be vaccinated, to reach herd immunity. For which, the country needs 145 crore doses of vaccine by May 2022. India currently has the capacity to manufacture 100 crore-130 crore doses per year, as per a Rajya Sabha committee report. Another report of April 10, 2021 also highlights, ‘at least 10 states in India have reported a vaccine shortage and many vaccine centers have been reported shut.’

My wife and I also experienced the Covishield vaccine shortage in Mumbai. Our scheduled online appointment for vaccination through Co-Win website of the Government at Sir HN Reliance Hospital,Girgaon, Mumbai, for April 17, 2021, was cancelled. At past 10 pm on April 16, 2021, the hospital rang us up to inform that they have closed their Covid vaccination center till fresh vaccine stocks reach them.

To combat the Covid pandemic – ‘Pharmacy of the World’ goes local:

Yes, to combat the Covid pandemic, the ‘Pharmacy of the World’ goes local for some critical Covid drugs and vaccines, several times in the past. This happened earlier with drugs, like Hydroxychloroquine, when India banned its export to cater to the domestic need for Covid treatment. It happened again now, as ‘Remdesivir, API and formulation were placed under Export ban on 11.04.2021.’

Similarly, India has now, reportedly, put a temporary hold on all major exports of the AstraZeneca’sCoronavirus vaccine (Covishield in India), made by the SII, amid an increase in domestic demand due to a surge in infection. As the news item highlights: ‘It will also affect supplies to Gavi, the W.H.O backed vaccine alliance, through which more than 190 participating economies – 98 higher-income and 92 low and middle-income, are expected to get vaccine doses.’ Such temporary measures are now necessary for India to effectively respond to India’s Covid fight – especially the vaccine crunch.

India’s current vaccine imbroglio, as Covid second wave strikes hard:

Besides the SII, a second Indian company — Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech, was given permission in January for emergency use of its Covaxin, developed in collaboration with the ICMR. Although, Bharat Biotech can make 12.5 million doses each month, these will be a small proportion of the doses administered in the country, so far.

To effectively respond to the prevailing vaccine crunch, Indian Government already approved the ‘emergency use’ of Sputnik V vaccine, which will be imported till its domestic production commences. Further, the country’s health authorities have now decided to consider the grant of ‘emergency use’ approval of several other internationally developed vaccines, such as, Pfizer – BioNTech double-dose vaccine and Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine. At least, till then, India’s vaccine imbroglio to vaccinate all adult population in the country, irrespective of age – particularly when Covid second wave is not sparing the young adults, is expected to continue.

Conclusion:

The jaw-dropping pandemic situation, and the pathway to deal with this crisis, especially in India, is getting increasingly complicated in every passing day. As reported on April 16, 2021, Covid-19 is now fooling RT-PCR tests – the most reliable type of Covid test as on date. It is so alarming because: ‘A false negative report is bad for the patient as they might delay consulting a doctor. It’s also bad for others, as the patient might not isolate, and spread the virus around,’ as the report underscores. It has started happening because: ‘Multiple mutations in the coronavirus over 15 months are making parts of it unrecognizable to lab tests.’

Experts are trying to fathom, whether or not more people are dying in India’s Covid second wave, as compared to the equivalent time period of the first wave. This causes an added cause of great concern because, in the six months before the start of the second wave (from September 2020 to January 2021), India’s overall case fatality rate (CFR) was only around 1.1%. This means only 1.1% of cases resulted in deaths. Currently, at the very beginning of the second wave, CFR has already increased to 1.3% and remains below peak levels seen in the first wave – as of date.

Above all, many people – virtually from all social, political, religious and economic strata, are openly flouting the basic norms of Covid appropriate behavior, as daily seen on different TV news channels. Ironically, these are happening at a time, when Indian health care infrastructure is creaking against the enormous and devastating power of the second wave Covid pandemic.

‘Pharmacy of the world’ has also gone local for some critical Covid-19 drugs and vaccines, to save lives and livelihoods of the Indian population, having no other better alternative in sight, at this hour. Isn’t this a sign of ‘A Nation in Distress’ that makes a fervent appeal to all of us, at least, to behave properly – by religiously following the lifesaving Covid guidelines?

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

More Challenges For Brand Launch Success In The New Normal

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The drug manufacturers’ life blood to drive business growth has always been successful new product launch. However, this task has always remained a tough challenge to crack, since last so many years for various reasons. According to McKinsey & Company: “About two-thirds of drug launches don’t meet expectations. Improving that record requires pharmaceutical companies to recognize the world has changed and adjust their marketing accordingly.” Several research studies have been carried out by now to gain actionable insight on this issue.

Existing challenges for successful drug launch got further amplified, as Covid-19 pandemic added a novel dimension in this space. It involves disruptive changes in many facets of customers’ new product-value expectations. Similar changes are witnessed in the product value delivery process, doctor-patient engagement, content development and delivery platforms, among others. This article will explore this area from successful new product launch perspective, in the days ahead.

Dismal outcome of many new drug launches – more for primary care:

According to a recent study, published by L.E.K Consulting on December 18, 2020: ‘About half of all products launched over the past 15 years have underperformed pre-launch consensus forecasts by more than 20%.’ This is quite in line with what McKinsey & Company found in 2014, as quoted in the beginning of this article.

However, in a relative yardstick, the primary care market has been the most vulnerable, which continues even during the ongoing pandemic. For example, according to an April 2020 Evaluate Vantage analysis, ‘Covid-19 adds a new danger to drug launches.’ The study emphasized, new drug launches, especially those targeting the primary care market, are particularly vulnerable as the pandemic continues. The key reason being, besides widespread disruptions in the health care system, sales teams will be physically unable to reach frontline physicians, as much as, and also the way they could do the same in the old normal. The studies underscore that a strong launch is critical to achieving maximum commercial potential, despite odds.

Some pivotal factors demand a greater focus than ever before:

After in-depth analysis of various studies in this area, some pivotal marketing factors appeared critical to me, in order to reduce success uncertainty while launching new products.

Alongside, unbreachable and agile supply chain alternatives also assumed a never before-frontline-importance in the new normal, unlike pre-Covid days. Another recent study, titled ‘Competitiveness During Covid-19 Pandemic: New Product Development and Supply Chain Agility’, published by ResearchGate in October 2020, vindicated the point.

As the title indicates, the above study examined the effect of new product development and supply chain agility to gain competitiveness during the Covid-19 pandemic and probably beyond. Thus, while developing and launching new products in the new normal, some pivotal factors, such as the following, appeared critical to me, in order to reduce success-uncertainty while launching new products:

  • Early planning for launch with a robust market access strategy, better sales forecasting with stretch goals – supported by state-of-the art forecasting tools and relevant learnings from the past.
  • Gaining actionable insight on changing customer needs, market dynamics and competitive threats in the new normal – by generating credible and contemporary data and leveraging the power of analytics – to offer differentiated stakeholder value.
  • Driving home patient-centric coeval product values that will delight customers – through flawless execution of stakeholder engagement strategies.
  • Working out virtual, innovative, personalized and impactful alternatives to some critical launch related physical events, such as, conferences, seminars, webinars and the likes, for doctors and other customers.
  • Developing creative and contemporary content and other marketing assets for significant online or omnichannel presence of new brands – supported by video clips and other tools, aiming at the target audience.
  • Differentiating the launch product clearly from those of the nearest competitors, where a focus on price-value relationship of the brand – from the patients’ perspective, could play a game changing role. As McKinsey & Company also highlighted, launching an undifferentiated product in an unestablished disease area carries a greater risk of failure.
  • Creating a robust and agile supply chain to navigate through unexpected market changes – as all experienced recently.

Delivering ‘patient-centric’ real value of the brand together, is critical:

Interestingly, L.E.K Consulting has also emphasized in its recent study that to drive and effectively deliver ‘patient-centric’ real value of new products, it is imperative for drug companies to execute the launch process flawlessly.

To make it happen on the ground – at the moment of truth, careful selection of a team of self-motivated people is necessary. This needs to be followed by intense training in all aspects of the specific launch, including effective use of modern digital tools and platforms – and above all – by creating a ‘can do’ team spirit to deliver the deliverables.

This requirement has been epitomized in the recent article, titled ‘Beyond the Storm: Launch excellence in the new normal,’ published by McKinsey & Company. Therein, the authors articulated, ‘Intangible though it may sound, great launches have a different feel from normal launches. There is a real sense that – we’re all in this together.’

Pharma’s current way of using digital platforms doesn’t satisfy many doctors: 

Over the last one year, as the pandemic brought all human activities virtually to a grinding halt, there has been a significant shift towards digital tools and online platforms, including in the way medical practitioners interact with drug companies. As recent surveys indicate, pharma customers don’t seem to be quite satisfied with the way many pharma players are currently making use of this technology.

This is happening even with those doctors who are open to virtual engagement and in favor of remote patient consultations. The issue needs to be resolved soon, particularly for new product launch successfully – using digital platforms, as reported in recent surveys.

The survey reports retraining of ‘sales reps to become digital orchestrators’:

One such recent survey, conducted by Indegene, which was also reported by Fierce Pharma on February 01, 2021, digital dissatisfaction of doctors with pharma companies, has jumped during the pandemic. The rates of dissatisfaction with pharma digital interactions, across media channels, ranged from 23% to almost 50% of physicians. Some of the key findings of the study include:

  • 49% of physicians are not happy with pharma’s social media engagements – perceived as less sophisticated when compared to expectations set by consumer companies.
  • Pharma is far from providing a satisfactory digital experience, as compared to other industries. The current dissatisfaction level where a higher percentage of doctors were dissatisfied, include marketing emails – 46%, telephone sales calls with sales reps – 42% and both webinars and websites – each at 39%.
  • In-person meetings dropped from 78% to 15% during the pandemic, but even now only 48% of doctors surveyed expect in-person engagements to continue in the post-COVID world.
  • Attendance at medical conferences also dropped from 66% to only 16% during the shutdowns and travel restrictions, but only 50% of HCPs now expect to resume in-person congresses after it’s safe to hold them.
  • The number of physicians engaged in remote sales visits increased from 11% to 47% during the pandemic, probably because there weren’t other alternatives available. Interestingly, one-third of physicians still plan to continue with virtual sales meetings even after the pandemic.
  • Most stakeholders are realizing, this is going to be the new normal, with senior pharma leadership also saying, ‘it’s never going to be the same as before.’
  • About 5 of the top 15 global pharma players are retraining their sales reps to become “digital orchestrators” and working to help them create clear and comprehensive digital communications for doctors.

Speedy resolution of these issues is likely making a substantial difference in improving pharma-to-physician interactions, particularly during new drug launches, in the days ahead.

Conclusion:

Success uncertainties in new product launches have always been a cause of concern for the drug industry, especially after having invested a substantial resource towards innovation and clinical developments. Interestingly, pharma players were mostly following ‘stick to the knitting’ dogma, as it were, in their launch planning. Despite the availability of sophisticated digital tools and analytics over the last several years, particularly in generating and accurate analysis of contemporary and credible data to gain insights, not much had changed radically. Suddenly Covid pandemic disrupted most market traditions, business processes, and the general belief on decision makers’ ‘gut feelings’ on customer behavior, market dynamics. Besides, the mindset of ‘doing better that what you have been always doing’, prevailed in many cases. In India, market research for most companies remained within the ambit of syndicated retail and prescription audit, despite frequent grumbling of many marketers on some critical findings of these reports.

The last one year has created more challenges in this area, although with a silver lining. A large number of drug companies have now stepped into the area of digital marketing – in varying degree, scale and resource deployment. This shift is expected to help reduce launch success uncertainties of new drugs. It will again, depend on how effectively the technology is leveraged by the cerebral power of astute markers.

Another article on pharma product launch, published by McKinsey & Company on December 15, 2020, also vindicated this point. It underlined: ‘As pharmaceutical companies reshape their commercial model to prepare for the uncertainties ahead, personalization and digital enablement will be crucial to launch success in the new environment.’

Amid these, as some surveys highlight, many doctors are not satisfied with the way digital technology is being currently used by pharma companies – to interact with them and cater to their information needs. With these ‘teething troubles’ being properly and promptly addressed, many drug companies, I reckon, will be able to remarkably reduce success uncertainties of new drug launches in the new normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

A Rare Strategic Acrobatic Feat in Covid Time

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‘Keep nose to the grindstone while lifting eyes to the hills.’ Quite a while ago, all-time global management guru – Peter Drucker used this essential acrobatic feat as an example, for the business strategists. This illustration signifies the criticality of harmonizing decisions affecting both the short and the long-term goals of an organization, for a sustainable business excellence.

In most recent times, the pharma major AstraZeneca that has virtually become one of the household names, for developing a Covid-19 vaccine candidate with the University of Oxford, has performed the above acrobatic feat – with precision. During the prevailing unprecedented health crisis, the Company has unequivocally proven that it remains on course – in achieving its dual objectives, as Drucker had prescribed in his management classic – ‘The Practice of Management.’

It happened in tandem – without getting overwhelmed by the disruptive forced of Covid pandemic, unlike most others. Immediately, the Company focused on an urgent objective of saving the humanity – by developing, manufacturing and delivering a Covid vaccine to the world, in a record time. This was possibly a relatively short-term goal. And closely followed the other – a critical strategic decision for the organization’s long-term sustainable business excellence.

I have discussed before, the Company’s first initiative – developing a Covid vaccine candidate with the University of Oxford. Hence, in this article, I shall focus on two other related areas:

  • Deadly impact of rare diseases in some Covid infected young patients.
  • Why not some large Indian companies also explore similar strategies as demonstrated by AstraZeneca – and the reasons behind the same?

Before going into those areas up front, let me start with a brief description of AstraZeneca’s intent to expand its footprint in the of area of rare diseases, besides immunology area to help treat rare types of cancer.

The acquisition:

On December 12, 2020 AstraZeneca announced that to accelerate its strategic and financial development, the company will acquire Alexion valuing $39 billion. Subject to all statutory approvals, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2021. Interestingly, Alexion’s top brand – Soliris, is the world’s one of the most expensive drugs in the world. It is prescribed to treat a rare – life-threatening blood disease paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). Incidentally, rare diseases have also some significant relevance for Covid infected patients. Let me now recapitulate, some key aspects of rare diseases.

Some key aspects of rare diseases: 

Rare Diseases (RD) – also referred to as Orphan Disease (OD), are diseases affecting a small percentage of the population, and include genetic diseases, rare cancers, infectious tropical diseases and degenerative diseases. There is no universally accepted definition of a rare disease, yet. Different countries define these differently. However, the common considerations in the definitions are, primarily, disease prevalence and to a varying extent – severity and existence of alternative therapeutic options.

Impact of some rare diseases in Covid infected patients: 

Since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, people with underlying diseases, such as, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular and kidney disorders, are considered to fall in the high-risk group. They are more likely to have severe disease and complications and need to be extra cautious of the infection. Importantly, it has been recently reported that some rare diseases also increase risk of dying during Covid-19 pandemic at a younger age.

For example, as reported on December 07, 2020, recent studies indicate, rare autoimmune rheumatic diseases increase risk of dying during Covid-19 pandemic for younger patients. The researchers also found that women with rare autoimmune rheumatological diseases (RAIRD) had a greater increase in all-cause mortality rates during the pandemic when compared to men with RAIRD. However, there seems to be an India specific issue also in this situation, as well.

India specific issue for Covid infected patients with some rare diseases:

Some India specific issues on RD, could have a significant adverse impact on Covid infected patients in the country. One such critical issues is the ‘Baseline Knowledge of Rare Diseases in India.’ This fact was well captured in an important survey that was published with the same name, as an original article, in the ‘International Journal of Rare Diseases & Disorders,’ on November 06, 2019.

The study noted, among others:

  • Although, rare diseases have recently received worldwide attention, the developing countries are seriously behind in regard to awareness, drug development, diagnosis, and social services, in this area. India, which has one-third of the world’s rare disease population, has no accurate assessment of the problem.
  • The drugs for ‘Rare Diseases (RD), also called Orphan Drugs (OD)’, often cost exorbitant with difficulties in diagnosis and treatments.
  • Indian policymakers want to find out the number of RD and the extent of the population suffering from them and help provide treatment for them, which is a challenging task with 1.45% GDP health care budget for 1.3 billion people.
  • The health care professionals appear to have some awareness as compared with non-healthcare professionals, but even among health care professionals, only one third had a rudimentary understanding of RD and OD, whereas three-fourths have virtually no knowledge of RD.
  • Forty-three percent of health professionals had not seen rare disease patients, and a large percent of practicing physicians had not seen even one rare disease patient in their entire professional practice.

Thus, it is clear from this survey that the most important issues are awareness and diagnosis, as many rare diseases are not diagnosed or possibly misdiagnosed. Besides, the survey also observed, since 1983, many global companies started developing orphan drugs after the Orphan Drug Act implementation. There is none at this time in India, although in 2017, the Drugs & Cosmetic Act. 1945 has been amended to include “rare diseases and orphan drugs”.

The National Policy on Rare Diseases flagged some of these facts:

The ‘National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020,’ for India, released by the Union Ministry of Health on February 07, 2020, acknowledged many of these important facts. It also said, ‘Considering the limited data available on rare diseases, and in the light of competing health priorities, the focus of the draft policy is on prevention of rare diseases as a priority as identified by experts.’

Interestingly, the first of such policy was prepared by India in 2017 and a committee was appointed to review it in 2028. However, recently published the National Policy on Rare diseases, has also noted one more important point. It noted: ‘Paradoxically, though rare diseases are of low prevalence and individually rare, collectively they affect a considerable proportion of the population in any country, which according to generally accepted international research is – between 6% and 8%.’ Currently, India, reportedly, doesn’t have any registry of rare disease, which has now been entrusted to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in the National policy.

Common symptoms can hide underlying rare diseases, leading to misdiagnosis:

The above policy has also noted, rare diseases are characterized by a wide diversity of signs and symptoms that not only, reportedly, vary from disease to disease, but also from patient-to-patient suffering from the same disease. Importantly, relatively common symptoms can hide underlying rare diseases, leading to misdiagnosis.

During Covid treatment, similar circumstances could lead to a serious life-threatening situation. The 2020 RD Policy also reiterates: “Early diagnosis of rare diseases is a challenge owing to multiple factors that include lack of awareness among primary care physicians, lack of adequate screening and diagnostic facilities etc.” That said, yet another key question arises – will developing and marketing such drugs be profitable for the pharma industry?

Will developing such drugs be profitable for the pharma industry?

It is worth noting that the National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020, aims more at lowering the incidence and prevalence of rare diseases based on an integrated and comprehensive prevention strategy, rather than ensuring patient access to affordable treatments. Nonetheless, it also says, within the constraints on resources and competing health care priorities, India will try to enable access to affordable health care to patients of rare diseases which are amenable to one-time treatment. In general, the policy suggests, ‘voluntary crowdfunding for treatment’ of rare diseases.

With this being the prevailing situation in India, even during Covid pandemic, an interesting article – ‘How Orphan Drugs Became a Highly Profitable Industry,’ published in The Scientist, noted some important facts in this area. It highlighted: ‘Government incentives, advances in technology, and an army of patient advocates have spun a successful market—but abuses of the system and exorbitant prices could cause a backlash.’

It also articulated, despite higher costs and less-certain returns, investments in drug development on the rare diseases side appear to ‘be bucking the trend.’ The result of the global focus on RD nowadays is: ‘Firms with marketing authorization for orphan products, are now more profitable than those without.’

This also partly explains the financial rationale behind AstraZeneca’s recent acquisition of Alexion Pharmaceuticals, valuing $39 billion.

Conclusion: 

As of December 20, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 10,031,659 of new Coronavirus cases with 145,513 deaths. The country has already crossed 10 million in Covid cases as the vaccine approval remains pending. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection continues to loom large in many states. Meanwhile, many studies indicate that comorbidity should now include rare diseases, as well, especially to prevent deaths in younger patients. From this perspective effective diagnosis and treatment of RD are also coming under spotlights. Curiously, the National Policy on Rare Diseases 2020 focuses more on awareness and prevention of RD rather than access to affordable treatment, particularly in Covid infected patients to save precious younger lives. As I wrote previously and still believe, the ‘National Policy on Rare Diseases’ becomes more meaningful with ‘Orphan Drugs Act.’

Vaccines to prevent Covid infections are also expected to get emergency approval in India, shortly. At lease, some of these being available at affordable prices, including AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, according to reports. As recent reports indicate the same company, is also entering into RD therapy areas, through a key acquisition, yet another hope looms large. A hope for availability of relevant RD drugs at an affordable price for Covid infected patients, despite other apprehension, as I wrote before.

That apart, purely from the business management perspective, as well, this rare strategic acrobatic feat of AstraZeneca - ‘Keep nose to the grindstone while lifting eyes to the hills,’ during the Covid crisis, I reckon, is exemplary for the practicing managers.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Create Greater Patient–Value To Excel With Repurposed Covid Brands

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Regular introduction of new molecules, line extensions or a Novel Drug delivery System (NDDS) has remained the life blood for pharma to rejuvenate a company’s product portfolio for driving organizational growth. But, Covid’s unprecedented and devastating assault on human lives and livelihoods, has pushed many of these initiatives off track. Covid infection was declared pandemic by the World health organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, compelling the industry to primarily focus on finding solutions for survival, especially in the product development areas.

As the fight against time, the need for survival became so intense, there was no time for pharma companies going back to primary research, to discover new effective Covid specific drug molecules. Vaccines – at the initial stage of the pandemic, were considered by experts could be the only ‘magic bullet’, to get the humanity back again on its feet, after a fierce knockout blow by the virus. As on date, although vaccines seem to be nearer the finishing line of creating adequate initial immunity against Covid, still there are no scientifically proven drugs to predictably cure this infection.

Meanwhile, the focus of all concerned is on the existing drugs, to examine their effectiveness against Covid-19. Accordingly, right from hydroxychloroquine, dexamethasone to a number of already existing antiviral agents were repurposed for Covid treatment, under emergency approval by country regulators, pending detailed clinical trials.

For various critical reasons, experts now feel that the use various NDDS technologies in repurposing existing drugs, would create greater value for patients in Covid treatment. At the same time, this will help pharma companies to create a cutting-edge differentiator for their repurposed brands – being more patient centric. In this article, I shall dwell in this area, starting with the current status and issues with repurposed Covid drugs, as of date.

Current status and issues with repurposed Covid drugs:

According to recent reports, such as one titled ‘Formulation and delivery strategies for COVId-19 drugs,’ published by the AIchE in June 2020, more than 40 different drugs are currently being explored for efficacy against COVID-19. Unfortunately, side effects of many of these repurposed drugs limit their use in most severe cases, besides preventing their use as prophylactics.

A large proportion of repurposed Covid drugs are small-molecule medications, antivirals, and immune-modulating antibodies. These are already approved for other indications (like hydroxychloroquine, ribavirin, favipiravir), or under clinical trials, but not yet approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, FDA (like, remdesivir, galidesivir, leronlimab).

If proven effective, these drugs would offer several advantages from a rapid- response perspective, such as the availability of safety data. In addition, several of these drugs offer broad-spectrum activity that makes it more likely they will remain functional even if the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates. However, there are also exists some critical issues with repurposed Covid drugs.

Some critical issues with repurposed Covid drugs:

Let me cite below two examples, just to drive home the point of some critical medical issues, now existing with these repurposed Covid drugs:

  • Hydroxychloroquine – the malaria drug, when used as directed, commonly produces nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, besides muscle weakness. Importantly, at higher concentrations – only two to three times the daily dose, it can cause potentially fatal acute cardiovascular toxicity. Thus, the possibility of severe side effects makes the drug unattractive as a preventive measure. Drug formulation and delivery strategies, such as controlled release and targeted delivery could expand the use of such existing drugs, the report recommends.
  • The HIV drug combination lopinavir and ritonavir, which is under evaluation as a COVID-19 treatment, has side effects that include diarrhea, nausea, and liver damage. With a half-life of about 4–6 hours, the systemic concentrations can vary by a factor of eight between peak and trough. Developing a controlled-release formulation that maintains the minimum effective drug concentration, could mitigate side effects by reducing the steady-state drug concentration by as much as eightfold and reducing the burden on the liver by 81%, the above study, published by the AIchE in June 2020, highlighted.

At this point, for greater clarity, let me recapitulate what NDDS really means.

NDDS – clinical and marketing relevance:

Novel Drug Delivers Systems or NDDS generally ‘refers to the approaches, formulations, technologies, and systems for transporting a pharmaceutical compound in the body as needed to safely achieve its desired therapeutic effects.’

This process was lucidly explained in a contemporary article, which also inferred that the method by which a drug is delivered can have a significant effect on its efficacy and safety profile.

Yet another paper underscored, ‘if therapeutic agents can be made more efficacious and safer, using an improved drug delivery system, could achieve both –lucrative marketing opportunities for pharmaceutical companies, alongside advancement in the treatment of diseases of mankind.’ Moreover, NDDS can also help maintain the drug concentration in the therapeutic range for a longer period of time and deliver the content to the site of action if required.

Leaving aside the technical details behind these mechanisms let me underscore - that NDDS will be a boon for the repurposing of drugs, was also discussed in detail in an article titled, ‘Role of Novel Drug Delivery Systems in Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19): Time to Act Now,’ published on September 09, 2020.

Some broad categories of NDDS and new initiatives:

For this purpose, some of the broad categories of NDDS may include the following:

  • Sustained- or controlled drug delivery systems provide drug action at a pre-determined rate.
  • Localized drug delivery devices for drug release in the vicinity of the target.
  • Rate – pre-programed drug delivery systems.
  • Targeted drug delivery provides drug action by using carries, which recognize their receptor at the target.

It goes without saying that NDDS mechanism may be used both for new molecules that may eventually be developed, and also for the existing repurposed drugs for Covid treatment.

Some encouraging initiatives of NDDS for Covid drugs:

The encouraging news is pharma initiatives in this regard has already commenced. For example, unprecedented interest in inhaled delivery of antiviral drugs has led to Aerogen’s involvement in multiple COVID-19 drug development initiatives, with more than 15 leading pharmaceutical companies - worldwide.

Several of these collaborations are already in clinical trials. Others are also on track to enter studies on moderately and severely ill COVID-19 patients, the Press Information of Aerogen dated October 22, 2020 highlighted. Let me cite below two more examples in this area, to explain the intensity of work that has commenced in the NDDS space for repurposed Covid drugs.

Covis Pharma’s inhaled glucocorticoid, Alvesco (ciclesonide) has entered Phase III safety and efficacy trial in 400 non-hospitalized patients  -12 years of age and older with symptomatic COVID-19. The product is delivered twice daily via a pressurized metered dose inhaler (pMDI).

Senzer Pharmaceuticals - a UK based company, is also in the process of formulating two specific medicines with antiviral properties, to allow them to be inhaled directly into the respiratory tract. The primary aim is to reduce the number of COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care treatment. Senzer is also using a pMDI for targeted drug delivery of actives through inhalation, as it offers potential advantages over oral intake. These include, ease of administration, assisting early treatment, allowing a lower dose by reducing unwanted side effects and supporting the safety profile of the products.

Experts consider preparations of inhalable particles for local delivery is a simpler approach. This is because the lungs comprise only about 2% of the total body weight, targeted delivery could reduce the amount of drug required by a factor of 50 or more, as compared to oral administration.

Be that as it may, the primary purpose of all such initiatives is to ensure more effective and safer drug delivery to Covid patients. It is now up to the pharma marketing leadership to ascertain how to leverage such NDDS opportunities to deliver extra patient-value, simultaneously creating a cutting edge for marketing these repurposed brands.

Impact of Covid on the NDDS market segments:

The May 11, 2020 report titled, ‘Drug Delivery Systems Market Forecast, Trend Analysis & Competition Tracking – Global Market Insights 2020 to 2025,’ presents some interesting details in this area. It forecasts, the global drug delivery systems market shall register an upswing, expanding at a strong CAGR of 7.0% during the forecast period (2020-2025).

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is expected to further heighten prospects of NDDS, with the number of infections still increasing every day. Consequently, many leading pharma companies have accelerated production of essential drug delivery systems, as stated above. According to the above report, the key growth drivers of the NDDS market include:

  • Targeted drug delivery - being most dominant, is expected to capture nearly half of the global NDDS market, expanding at a healthy CAGR of 6.8% across the above forecast period.
  • Polymeric drug delivery segment is anticipated to be the second-most lucrative area, expanding at a CAGR of 7.3% across the forecast period. The popularity of this delivery type is attributed to its efficiency in localized drug delivery in large amounts, alongside lowering drug toxicity rate. The polymeric drug delivery segment is expected to capture more than 1/3rd of the global drug delivery systems market during the forecast period.
  • Application of nanotechnology is another key growth determinant for the segment. Insertion of nanoparticles help penetrate the targeted tissue in a much better manner. These particles are easily absorbed by cells, facilitating efficient drug delivery.
  • Microneedle drug delivery helps deliver vaccines or other drugs across various barriers.

Conclusion:

The Covid clock keeps ticking. As on November 22, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,095,908 of Coronavirus cases with 133,263 deaths. The average number of daily new cases appeared, after the festive season, have started climbing up again. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection now looms large.

In this regard, many experts initially thought that Covid vaccines will be magic bullets to win the war against the new Coronavirus. But in the most recent times, this situation has changed, and it is no longer so – not even Pfizer vaccine. Indian media also deliberated the same on November 05, 2020.

Under this backdrop, Arthur L. Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine, who wrote a 2017 book on vaccine ethics and policy have also made a profound comment. He said recently: “We’re going to have to continue our behavioral efforts - the masking and distancing and the quarantining and the testing and so on — in parallel with vaccination because it would be very, very surprising if we got a very highly effective vaccine first one out of the box.”

Currently, the world doesn’t have any clinically proven new Covid treatment drugs, either. What we have now is a number of repurposed Covid drugs, many of these are in advanced stage of clinical trials. As and when these are approved by the country’s regulators, pharma marketers will have a task cut to excel with those – among many ‘me-too’ types. In this scenario, there will be a critical need to create greater patient-value with a company’s own repurposed brand, where right application of NDDS technology could play a game changing role. The time to keep pondering is over. Time to decide is – now.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

Covid Prompts Pharma To Move Away From Competition Driven Business Model

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As deliberated in my just previous article in this blog, Covid has been a watershed in several areas of pharma business. One such key area is its competition driven strategic business model. It aims to deliver significant value for a longer time than the competition, protected by a patent thicket driven TINA factor – and only for those who can afford such patented drugs. It didn’t matter, if a vast majority of patients are denied access to these medicines, with a dangerous pricing trend acting as an insurmountable barrier. Flying solo has been the motto of most players in this ball game, to delight the stock markets.

Interestingly, Covid pandemic seems to be changing this model. Pharma industry, by and large, is now trying to demonstrate its core value for the society – moving away from displaying competition driven one-upmanship. In this article, I shall deliberate on this area.

Covid poses both – a humongous challenge and a great opportunity:

As the article, published in the MIT Sloan Management Review on April 16, 2020 highlights: ‘The COVID-19 pandemic may well prove to be the biggest challenge for humankind since World War II.’ The same holds good for the pharma industry, as well. The drug companies are now expected by all, to play a pivotal role in the fight against the pandemic ‘that is bringing health care systems to their knees and sending shock waves through economies across the globe.’

This is generally because, pharma industry possesses wherewithal to develop effective drugs and vaccines to combat this health crisis – if not alone, but certainly collectively. It also offers a great opportunity for pharma to ‘walk the talk,’ by demonstrating upfront that meeting all patients’ unmet needs lie at the core of the pharma business. As I quoted a global CEO in one of my articles articulating, this crisis also comes as ‘a Shot at Redemption in Pharma Industry.’

Thus, if the industry reacts quickly and responsibly, it may have the chance to also redeem a reputation that’s been tarnished for years. Some of these instances are, illegal marketing practices, corruption scandals, and obscene pricing of vital drugs, the MIT Sloan article underscored. Flying solo in this situation may not be just enough, if not foolhardy.

Flying solo in this situation may not be enough:

Taking this initiative won’t be a piece of cake, either, if pharma companies prefer to do it alone during this unprecedented health crisis.  The drug players will need to be willing and able to successfully collaborate with other players in the race to develop treatments and vaccines. Otherwise, their legitimacy will be fundamentally questioned, especially when the entire world is running against time.

The rationale of two top drug companies entering into collaborative arrangements is obvious – the realization that pooling of all resources together is the best way of delivering effective Covid related solutions to the society at the shortest possible time. The good news is, pharma has already taken the first step in this direction, even when some of them are competitors, in several areas – moving away from their competition driven business models, as of now.

Once strange bedfellows – now partners:

The article published in the Bloomberg Law on June 05, 2020 very aptly observed: ‘The race to address the pandemic has brought together strange bedfellows as big-name companies’ partner with their rivals.’ The Scientist also wrote on July 13, 2020: ‘The urgent need for tests and therapeutics has brought companies together and pushed researchers to work at breakneck speeds.’

One can find this happening on the  ground now, as some major pharma and biotech companies, including Eli Lilly, Novartis, Gilead, and AstraZeneca, formed a group called COVID R&D to share resources and expertise to try to accelerate the development of effective therapies and vaccines for COVID-19. Besides, Roche Holding AG and Gilead Sciences Inc. have teamed up on trials for a drug combination to treat Covid-19.

There are several instances of such collaboration also in the Covid vaccine area. For example, GlaxoSmithKline plc struck a deal with Sanofi to produce 1 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine booster. Besides, Pfizer from the US and BioNTech from Germany are joining hands to co-develop and distribute a potential Coronavirus vaccine, aimed at preventing COVID-19 infection.

It’s a reality today that Covid-19 has brought not just the strange bedfellows within pharma and biotech companies together. Academia and governments have also moved on to the same collaborative platforms, to save people from a deadly and super contagious infection, in the shortest possible time. We have witnessed this

in India, as well. For example, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and Aurobindo Pharma Limited have also announced a collaboration to develop vaccines to protect against SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19.

The rationale and some possible issues: 

Each of these players is bringing some expertise and intellectual property to the table. “As they work together, they’re going to create more, so you have the ‘yours,’ the ‘mine,’ and the ‘ours’ of collaboration,” as the Bloomberg Law points out. That said, any collaboration of such nature and scale will have its own share of legal issues, such as, patents, trademarks, trade secrets, revenue sharing models, and more.

The collaborators, in pursuit of saving mankind from Covid-19, are expected to find enough alternatives to resolve these glitches for a win-win outcome – not just for now, but much beyond – with the dawn of a new collaborative model. The rapid general acceptance of this collaborative model by more and more drug companies to meet unmet medical needs in many other areas – much faster, in all probability, will delight the health care consumers and also be appropriately rewarded.

Leveraging the collaborative business model beyond pandemic:

E that as it may, it still remains an open question to many, whether such collaborative model will be leveraged for an accelerated rate of drug, vaccine and diagnostics development beyond the pandemic.

The good news is, as The Scientist article reported, some pharma players are seriously pondering how to continue working in this new way – with the same sense of urgency and purpose, for other disease areas too. They believe, the lessons being learned with the collaborative models, may help expedite development of therapeutics in other serious conditions, such as, Alzheimer’s, intractable cancers and autoimmune diseases.

If and when it happens as a predominant business model, suffering patients and the society, in general, would lap it up and the innovators would be suitably rewarded. However, the paper also says, there are still some drug companies who prefer to continue working in a more insular fashion, as was happening in the old normal. But, experts also feel, that should not cause any worry, as long as majority prefers to continue following the collaborative models, in the new normal, as well.

Pharma would make a good profit from collaborative business models too:

For those who say that drug companies won’t make good profit from Covid drugs and vaccines, Pfizer CEO has an answer. Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s CEO, reportedly, has no patience for the argument that pharmaceutical companies should not be making a profit on the drugs and vaccines they introduce to fight Covid-19. This article highlights, at $19.50 per dose, the 1.3 billion doses of Pfizer BioNTech Covid vaccine that the Pfizer plans to make by the end of next year, could translate to nearly $13 billion in sales, after the company splits its revenue with its partner BioNTech. It is roughly the same as Pfizer’s all-time best-selling drug Lipitor sold in its best year.

Adding to it, another article on the same issue, published by Fierce Pharma on August 13, 2020, further reinforced the above expectation. It wrote, the longtime Evercore ISI pharma analyst haspredicted the total market for COVID-19 vaccines would be worth $100 billion in sales and $40 billion in post-tax profits. It assumed frontrunner Moderna would supply about 40 percent of the market, Novavax would take 20 percent and the other vaccine developers would split the rest. “One could look at the field under this base scenario and conclude it is reasonably valued in total,” the analyst concluded.

Nonetheless, there could still be several points that remained unanswered in this analysis. But the bottom line is, the collaborative model is not just profitable, it starts generating profit earlier and faster – virtually eliminating the cost of possible delays when a company flies solo.

Conclusion:

With a seemingly flattening curve, the Covid pandemic still continues, alarmingly. As of October 25, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 7,864,811 of Coronavirus cases with 118,567 deaths.

With this backdrop, COVID-19 has provided the pharma industry a new opportunity to demonstrate its true value to the society – not the self-serving ones. It’s now clear that no one can rule out, there won’t be a similar unprecedented health catastrophe in the future too. It may come in various different forms, or may even be from a rapid and complex mutation of the same lethal virus.

Moreover, such crisis may not come and go in just a few months – may even linger for a long time. In any case, these may again be equally disruptive – or even more disruptive to lives, livelihoods and the economic growth engine. In such a scenario, putting the brightest scientific brains of the world together will be critical, and adding top speed to the process being the essence to come out of the crisis with least possible damages.

Covid pandemic has also demonstrated that the competition-based model of the drug could be a serious retarding force in that endeavor. What will matter, is a well-structured collaborative model that can create a win-win situation – both for patients and the business. I reckon, it’s about time to move into this model to find most effective drugs and treatment solutions for many other unmet needs related to a host of intractable diseases, much sooner.

There could, of course, be some business issues with this model. But those can be resolved amicably for an all-weather greater success in business, along with protecting the society – for all. From this overall perspective, it appears, Covid pandemic now sends a strong signal to pharma companies to move away from predominantly competition driven business models, expanding more into collaborative ones.

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Create Purpose-Driven-Brands To Win Marketing Warfare In The New Reality

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As we navigate through the Covid days, the hope of somehow getting back to the pre-pandemic normal still lingers – notwithstanding a host of uncertainties in its way. The longing is driven by the hype of availability of scientifically proven, safe and effective drugs and vaccines – unrealistically soon, despite top experts still keeping their fingers crossed. Some are even more forthright in their expression, as reflected in a September 30, 2020 report. It flashed a headline - “There is no getting ‘back to normal. The sooner we accept that, the better.”

Alongside, COVID-19 crisis has also triggered some disruptive changes in the business processes around the world. Amid this global health crisis, interestingly, several global pharma CEOs are sensing a number of game-changing opportunities – having business implications, even much beyond the pandemic.

One such example, as Bloomberg reported on September 29, 2020, the CEO of GlaxoSmithKline Plc feels: The Covid Pandemic is ‘a Shot at Redemption in Pharma Industry.’ Elaborating the point, she said: ‘the sector’s push to find vaccines and drugs to end the crisis, if successful, could change the perception of pharmaceutical companies in the future.’ Coincidentally, the researchers from The Harris Poll found:

  • As of May, 40 percent of the American public said pharma’s reputation had improved since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak
  • And 81percent recalled seeing or hearing something about the industry during that time.
  • This is a continuation of the former trend that The Harris Poll first noted on March 2020.

There shouldn’t much doubt, either, that similar general impression on the pharma industry, with a varying degree, may now be felt in most countries, across the globe.

Curiously, flowing from this ‘redemption of pharma reputation’ angle – with new drugs and vaccines, the scope for leveraging another opportunity is also surfacing. This is from pharma ‘branding’ perspective and pertains to creating ‘purpose-driven brands’ for success in the new reality – during the pandemic and much beyond. In this article, I shall focus on the second area, and would start with its relevance to increasingly more informed health care consumers of date.

‘Purpose driven brands’ – attained greater relevance in Covid time:

The concept of creating ‘purpose driven brands,’ is profound – it goes much beyond product features, benefits and intrinsic values. It is motivated by – why the brands exist not just for providing a solution to manage or cure a disease, but also to meet a crucial need in society.

Studies have unfolded, with better stakeholder connection – and greater share of their mind, ‘purpose driven brands’ help improve brand loyalty, resulting into increased revenue and profit. We will see below, why in Covid time, this trend has started gathering wind on its sail, and deserves to find its place at the very core of any pharma branding strategy.

The consulting arm of The Beautiful Truth, also echoed the same sentiment in the article – ‘How Pharma Can Navigate Change With Purpose.’ It reconfirmed, at times of external crisis, like the global pandemic, creation of ‘purpose-driven brands’ is vital. Not just ‘for saving and maintaining business, but also for boosting internal team morale, and reconciling public trust.’

The pandemic has redefined the core purpose of a brand:

Another recent article –‘Through COVID-19, Leading Brands Have Found Their Purpose,’ published in CMO by Adobe, among many others, vindicated this point. Acknowledging that the COVID-19 pandemic has redefined the meaning of brand purpose, the paper explained the reason for the same.

In pre-Covid days, many organizations used to build brands following traditional norms – curing or effectively managing a disease is the purpose of a brand. But, since last few years, a growing number of new generation health care customers expect a brand’s ‘purpose’ to expand beyond the product and the company. It has to be inclusive in nature – benefiting the macro-environment, including governments, health care professionals, and the public. With this expectation gathering momentum during Covid time, pharma players would also need to redefine the core ‘purpose’ of a brand. Incidentally, many pharma CEOs also believe, if this trend continues, the image of the industry would probably undergo a metamorphosis.

Surveys vindicate the rationale for redefinition:

Several top consulting organizations have published excellent articles covering a number of critical points in this area. One such paper - ‘Purpose is everything,’ was published in Deloitte Insights, on October 15, 2019. It wrote on how brands that authentically lead with ‘purpose’ are changing the nature of business today.

The rationale for redefinition of brand purpose, also gets reflected in a contemporary Deloitte survey, as quoted in the above article. It revealed the following top three issues that stakeholders identify with, while making decisions about brands: 

Top Issues

% of respondents
How the company treats its own people/employees

28
How the company treats the environment

20
How the company supports the community in which it operates

19

Aligning purpose to create deeper connections with stakeholders:

Especially at the Covid time, if companies try to align their purpose in doing good – for the society, they can build deeper connections with their stakeholders. And, in turn, amplify the company’s relevance in their stakeholders’ lives. From this perspective, it’s good to note in the above Bloomberg article, that one of the top pharma CEOs articulating the same in public. I reckon, increasingly, pharma businesses would endeavor harnessing the power and opportunity of aligning the ‘core purpose of brands’ with societal good, as came out in the above Deloitte article.

Mostly millennial generation favor ‘purpose-driven’ brands:

The initiation of this trend dates back to pre-Covid time with wider usage of internet. However, with the increasing democratization of health care - social media based instant information sharing, the ability to communicate with others as needed, have increased manifold. Consequently, stakeholders, particularly, the millennial generation with a different mindset, aspirations and expectations are expecting pharma players to act more on the pressing societal issues. This makes them lean towards a purpose driven brands and companies. The unprecedented Covid health crisis is acting as a force multiplier in this area.

Another study – ‘Why Customers Are Supporting ‘Purpose-Driven’ Brands,’ published in Link fluence epitomized this evolving customer preference succinctly. It reiterated, ‘It’s no longer enough for brands to deliver great products and experiences. Instead, consumers are demanding for brands to be more proactive and conscious in delivering value to society as a whole.’

‘Purpose-driven brands’ – the latest ‘marketing buzzword’?

This question was conclusively answered about two years ago -  from the 2018 Cone/Porter Novelli Purpose Study. Although, this survey was conducted in the United States, it has a global relevance amid Covid pandemic. Some of the key findings include: 

  • 78 percent believe companies must do more than just make money; they must positively impact society as well.
  • 77 percent feel a stronger emotional connection to Purpose-driven companies over traditional companies.
  • 66 percent would switch from a product they typically buy, for a new product from a purpose-driven company.
  • 68 percent is more willing to share content with their social networks over that of traditional companies. 

Examples of ‘purpose-driven’ pharma brands/companies:

Let me give just two examples each – from pre-Covid and Covid times. The article – ‘Mission-Drive Pharma Brands,’ published by Wonder on January 15, 2018, cited several examples of ‘purpose-driven’ pharma brands. This was based on a research of individual drug campaigns for top-selling drugs around that time. These include promotional campaigns on:

  • Humira: Highlighted the participation in a community food drive, and volunteering in a playground construction project.
  • Lyrica: Highlighted the engagement in a multi-generational interaction and helping others.

Encouragingly, while combating COVID-19, several pharma companies have also displayed a sense of ‘purpose’ to save the humanity from the pandemic, mainly through collaborative approaches. Let me quote below two such examples:

  • On April 14, 2020 GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi announced a very unusual collaboration to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, expeditiously. This was done for a greater purpose, responding to the critical need of the society – saving millions of lives.
  • Roche called on and campaigned for the governments for focusing on testing and prevention, to maintain adequate medical supplies for health care professionals  around the world. It also urged the health authorities to work closely with the life sciences industry to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic through international collaboration to tackle Covid-19 pandemic.

Conclusion:

Meanwhile, as on October 04, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 6,549,373 of Coronavirus cases with 101,812 deaths. Still there is no respite from Covid-19’s unprecedented onslaught on the country. Be that as it may,  coming back to the creation of ‘purpose-driven brands’ in the Covid time, let me quote again from the above CMO by Adobe article, where it underscored:“Never before have brands been asked to show their true purpose and leadership as they are today. It’s inspiring to see companies across industries and throughout the world come together to address some of the most pressing needs brought about by this crisis.”

As Accenture had articulated: ‘In an era of radical visibility, technology and media have given individuals the power to stand up for their opinions and beliefs on a grand scale.’ Keeping this in view, with gradually changing stakeholder mindset and expectations, the ‘purpose of a brand’ deserves to be a critical centerpiece in the pharma ‘branding’ process. Various studies have established – since pre-Covid time, and more during this pandemic – brands, reflecting a robust sense of ‘purpose’ on societal values, people and the environment, connect better with customers.

Consequently, as the stakeholders find these companies walk the talk, they develop a strong and sustainable brand preference, and reward the manufacturers commensurately, both directly and also through word of mouth. Alternatively, if the stated ‘brand purpose’ is not genuine – which customers can quickly find out through digital transparency, they shift their preferences to the deserving ones. Going by this growing trend, I reckon, creating ‘Purpose-Driven-Brands’ assumes a critical importance to win marketing warfare, in the new reality.

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Taming Two Critical Covid Uncertainties For Pharma’s Sustainable Growth

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The reasons behind a great urgency of the Governments, besides high expectations of the general public, to have the ‘ultimate solution’ very soon, against the ongoing pandemic, are understandable. However, various media-hyped narratives on their clinical trials, and timeframe for expected launch – ranging from November this year to anytime in 2021, are making many experts to raise eyebrows on the scientific processes followed for Covid vaccine development.

Exact answers to the ultimate efficacy standard, safety profile and dates of their availability to the entire population, are still not clear – not even to many domain experts. Besides, two other critical and fundamental questions in India, are related to huge financial resources and other wherewithal, such as, countrywide stringent cold-chain logistics network, required to achieve this goal.

While effective, safe and high-quality vaccines, as and when these will come, will be pivotal to contain the alarming spread of Covid-19 – and that too in a wave after wave manner. Alongside, the intense search for effective anti-Covid medicines are also expected to come to fruition. Doctors will then have in their arsenals a number of highly effective alternatives, that can predictably cure individuals, when infected by this lethal virus.

It causes a great concern when someone asks, when will those days of great relief to all come? For, those days may or may not be very soon – could well be for an indefinite period. No one seems to know the answer, yet.

Until then, pharma companies can’t afford to remain in a ‘quick-fix mode’ to address the problems related to Covid related market and consumer mindset changes. Choosing this path could eventually prove to be very costly, especially for the lost time in leveraging some key opportunities. Moving in that direction, would entail rebuilding the organization by creating a new work-culture – a mindset to be all-time ready for any disruptive changes in business. Most importantly, if or as and when it comes, the organization should not get as overwhelmed, as is happening during the current global pandemic.

In this article, I shall deliberate the following two critical and interrelated Covid-19 issues:

  • The uncertainty in achieving what everybody is expecting to get right away – getting a preventive vaccine or a cure for the infected patients.
  • Inordinate delay in getting prompt medical care by many patients for non-Covid related serious ailments, leading to complexity of the disease. How long this situation will continue still remains uncertain.

As things stand today, these uncertainties could continue for an indefinite period, making some of the Covid related changes irreversible. Thus, my aim will be, first to recap where we are today with these niggles. And then, focusing on the crucial need to pave a balanced pathway – uncharted by anyone, for destination success – in the new world order. Let me begin with the first issue first.

The uncertainty in achieving what everybody is expecting:

Although, some Covid vaccines, reportedly, will be ready by early 2021, uncertainties and delays are still anticipated on the way. Some the reasons may include the following:

  • A critical challenge: About 5.6 billion people worldwide would need to be immune in order to end the pandemic (NEJM). Thus, vaccination process may take years to achieve the coverage necessary for everyone to be protected.
  • Huge investment required: India would need to invest between Rs 3,000 -5,000 crore to create additional facilities for making a huge number of vaccines, required for the Indian population. Currently no one has the capacity to manufacture it for 1.3 billion Indian populations. Moreover, vaccine alone is not the solution to the COVID-19 problem, according to experts.
  • High vaccine cost in India: As these vaccines come from a very difficult platform its cost is going to be significantly higher than many other vaccines, so there is going to be a requirement to think about how we are going to fund this.
  • Coronavirus mutating, potentially evolving: As reported on September 24, 2020, Covid’s continual mutation may make it increasingly contagious. The study says, it’s possible that when our population-level immunity gets high, this Coronavirus will find ways to get around our immunity.
  • The logistical challenge of a lifetime: Getting billions of doses of COVID-19 vaccines around the world quickly, would require 15,000 flights and 15 million cooling boxes. Stringent temperature control requirements for the vaccine supply chain must not be compromised at any point, not even in rural India. It’s worth noting, some of these vaccines may need to be kept at temperatures as low as -80 degrees Celsius. Currently, even in the developed world, the most efficient medical supply chain conventionally distributes vaccines at +2–8°C.
  • Vaccines may not provide complete protection: If COVID-19 re-infections are common, “vaccines might not completely protect against the virus” and would instead require a design similar to seasonal flu shots to protect from new variants. Interestingly. India may, reportedly, approve covid-19 vaccines that show 50 percent efficacy in clinical trials.

Converting problems into opportunities:

Such uncertainties may not only aggravate people’s overall health risks, but also their exposure to Covid infection. Drug companies, drug authorities and various Governments have been working hard on these issues. However, as flagged earlier, amid this health crisis, there is also another growing concern of a very serious nature. It pertains to many people delaying their non-Covid related medical care and medical interventions, for various reasons.

Pharmaceutical companies can convert this problem into a golden business opportunity with ‘patient-centric’ innovative strategies having a cutting-edge, and from a number of platforms. Let me illustrate this point with an interesting example of an initiative taken by a global pharma major, in this area.

A pace setting initiative:

On September 22, 2020, Fierce Pharma reported, ‘J&J wants everyone to know that taking care of their health can’t wait—even during a pandemic.’ This effort is based on the findings of a recent Harris Poll commissioned by them. This study revealed, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused many Americans (68 percent) to delay healthcare treatment. It ranges from standard routine exams to important elective surgeries to ER visits – with physicians sharing concerns about the long-term impact of patients delaying care. The situation is expected to be no different in other countries of the world, including India.

Based on this finding Johnson & Johnson (J&J) have recently launched a US-based online initiative, aimed at giving both patients and physicians information and resources about health care options. This unique campaign has been named – “My Health Can’t Wait”.

By a statement J&J announced: “As the largest healthcare company in the world, we are committed to helping people live their healthiest lives, which means getting the care they need, when they need it.” It added: “Through My Health Can’t Wait, we hope to provide patients and healthcare providers with resources to help stay connected and prioritize their health care, both during this pandemic and in the future.” The point, especially take note of is, ‘both during this pandemic and in the future.’ This part of the above sentence of J&J, echoes the well-known management dictum – converting problem into opportunities, I add, even during the Covid pandemic.

I hope, many pharma players may also wish to pursue similar direction, responding to their own specific needs. But, not just to keep the head above water, in combating this unprecedented health crisis, but with a long-term strategic perspective – to rebuild the organization – for business excellence the new normal.

The concept reverberates:

I find the concept of ‘rebuilding the organization now, for business excellence the new normal’, reverberating in several expert voices. For example, The McKinsey ‘Briefing Note’ of September 16, 2020 – ‘COVID-19 and the great reset.’ It said: ‘The world anxiously awaits an effective COVID-19 vaccine that can be readily distributed. Until then, the priority is to re-energize organizations—to act rather than react. Even as the uncertainties of the COVID-19 crisis multiply, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term.’

The authors emphasized, ‘a crisis has a way of bringing things to a head.’ Many believe, the coming months might be the best opportunity in memory for healthcare companies to pursue exponential innovation. This, according to McKinsey, ‘could create an additional $400 billion in value by 2025. And now is the time to claim the hundreds of billions of dollars that could be saved through productivity gains.’

Thus, I reckon, apart from creating a great business compulsion of working harder to neutralize the short-term operational constraints, Covid pandemic also provides a unique opportunity to pharma leadership. It gives a space for them for thinking long-term, and from a strategic perspective. The aim is to rebuild the organization, placing it at a higher trajectory for success, in an uncharted frontier, thus far.

Conclusion:

Meanwhile, as on September 27, 2020 morning, India had recorded a staggering figure of 5,992,532 of Coronavirus cases with 94,534 deaths. The virus’s unprecedented onslaught on the country still continues, unabated. Be that as it may, coming back to where I started from, I reckon, pharma companies, in general, could play a stellar role in converting the dual problems of uncertainties into a number of opportunities. In that process, they can create a win-win situation for all, in the health care space.

The uncertainties related to scientifically proven, safe and effective Covid drugs and vaccines will, hopefully, be addressed – sometime, by the scientists and medical researchers. However, as the above McKinsey paper wrote: ‘Until then, the priority is to re-energize organizations – to act rather than react. Even as the uncertainties of the COVID-19 crisis multiply, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term.’ Thus, the second issue, needs to be creatively leveraged mostly by individual drug players, starting from now.

From this perspective, pharma leadership, will need to commit quality time of thinking people, supported by adequate resources, for conceiving and effectively implementing a ‘patient-centric’ strategy, that patients will fall for in the new normal. That being done, the top honchos, will require to roll up their sleeves to prioritize primary, secondary and tertiary action areas.

Instead of trying to do a little bit of everything, in all possible areas of Covid related changes in the market dynamics, ‘primary action areas’ ought to be the starting point, deploying all resources. And then, expand to the ‘secondary’ and ‘tertiary’ ones, in a well-calibrated manner. Evaluation of results and tightening the strategic loose knots, if any, should be an ongoing process. If implementation of the process requires handholding, so be it. Because, taming these two critical Covid related uncertainties, is intimately related to a sustainable growth for the pharma companies.

By: Tapan J. Ray   

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.