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With significant competitive edge should Global Biotech Companies consider entry into high potential ‘Biosimilar drugs’ business?

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‘Biosimilar drugs’ – rapid future growth potential:
In most of the developed countries of the world, besides regulatory issues, ‘Biosimilar drugs’are considered a threat to the fast growing global biotech industry. However, many believe that innovative biotech companies can have a head start with all wherewithals at their disposal, compared to generic pharmaceutical companies, to convert this seemingly significant threat into a bright emerging opportunity and derive the best possible mileage out of such changing environment.

Sandoz (Novartis) – first to launch a ‘Biosimilar drug’ in the USA:

In mid 2006, US FDA approved its first ‘Biosimilar drug’; Omnitrope of Sandoz (Novartis) following a court directive in the U.S. Omnitrope is a copycat version of Pfizer’s human growth hormone, Genotropin. Interestingly, Sandoz (Novartis) had taken the U.S FDA to court as the regulatory approval of Omnitrope was kept pending by them, in absence of a defined regulatory pathway for ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in USA.

The CEO of Sandoz had then commented, “The FDA’s approval is a breakthrough in our goal of making high-quality and cost-effective follow-on biotechnology medicines like Omnitrope available for healthcare providers and patients worldwide.” Despite this event, no one at that time expected the U.S FDA to start commencing approval of other ‘Biosimilar drugs’ within the country.

‘Biosimilar drugs’ – emerging global interest:

Thereafter, many developments are fast taking place in the space of ‘Biosimilar drugs’, the world over. To fetch maximum benefits out of this emerging opportunity, India is also taking steps to tighten its regulatory reform process for ‘Biosimilar drugs’ to allay general fear and apprehensions regarding safety of such drugs, in absence of adequate clinical data for the specific protein substance.

Merck’s entry in ‘Biosimilar drugs’ business is through an acquisition:

In the west Merck announced its entry into the ‘Biosimilar drugs’ business on February 12, 2009, while announcing its acquisition of Insmed’s portfolio of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ for U.S$130 million in cash. Rich pipeline of follow-on biologics of Insmed is expected to help Merck to hasten its entry into global ‘Biosimilar drugs’ markets.

Current status of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in the USA:

The new administration of President Barak Obama has expressed its strong intent to pave the way for regulatory guidelines for ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in the USA. To facilitate this process, the new draft legislation titled, “Promoting Innovation and Access to Life Saving Medicine Act” has already been introduced by the legislators of the country. This legislation, when will come into force would help define guidelines for approval of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in the USA with just a five year exclusivity period to the innovative products, against a demand of 14 years by the global biotechnology industry.

Lucrative Global market potential for ‘Biosimilar drugs’:

It is estimated that only in the top two largest pharmaceutical markets of the world, USA and EU, sales of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ will record a turnover of U.S$ 16 billion in next two years and around U.S$ 60 billion by year 2010, when about 60 biotech products will go off-patent.

Opportunity for the Indian biotech companies:

Such a lucrative business opportunity in the west will obviously attract many Indian players, like, Biocon, Dr. Reddy’s Labs, Ranbaxy, Wockhardt etc, who have already acquired expertise in the development of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in India like, erythropoietin, insulin, monoclonal antibodies, interferon-alfa. Domestic Indian biotech players are not only marketing these products in India but also exporting them to other non/less-regulated markets of the world.

Indian Companies are fast preparing to take a sizable share of the global pie of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ market:

Ranbaxy in collaboration with Zenotech Laboratories is engaged in global development of Granulocyte Colony-Stimulating Factor (GCSF) formulations. Wockhards is expected to enter into the Global ‘Biosimilar drugs’ market by 2010. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Biocon are also preparing themselves for global development and marketing of insulin products, GCSF and streptokinase formulations.

Government of India funding for development of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in India:

It has been reported that the Department of Biotechnology (DBT) of the Government of India has a proposal for funding of U.S$ 68 million through public private partnership (PPP) initiatives, where soft loans at the rate of interest of just 2% will be made available to the Indian biotech companies for development of ‘Biosimilar drugs’. Currently DBT spends around U.S$200 million annually towards biotechnology related initiatives.

Advantage India:

Experience in conforming to stringent U.S FDA manufacturing standards, having largest number of U.S FDA approved plant outside USA; India has acquired a great advantage in manufacturing similar high technology products in India. Significant improvement in conformance to Good Clinical Practices (GCP) standards in India offers additional advantages.

Two available choices for the innovator companies:

With increasing global cost-containment pressures within the healthcare space, emergence of a lucrative global ‘Biosimilar drugs’ market with appropriate defined regulatory pathway in place is inevitable now.

Major global research based companies will now have two clear choices in the fast evolving situation. The first choice is the conventional one of competing with the ‘Biosimilar drugs’ in all important markets of the world. However, the second choice of jumping into the fray of ‘Biosimilar drugs’ business keeping focus on R&D undiluted, appears to be more prudent to me and perhaps will also make a better business sense. Only future will tell us, which of these two business senses will prevail, in the long run for the global biotech companies.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Recent appetite of Global Pharmaceutical Majors for Generic Pharmaceutical Business: can it pose a threat to pure generic players?

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Last year Lehman Brothers estimated that by 2012 over 25% of the global pharmaceutical market will face competition from generics. Higher demand of generics is mainly due to the following reasons:1. Increased number of patented drugs is going off-patent.2. Cost containment and pricing pressure, especially from the Government, in the developed markets of the world.

3. Increasing number of patents is being challenged, especially in the U.S courts, on the ground of “obviousness”.

“Obviousness” is becoming a key reason of patent challenges in the U.S:

In first quarter of the last year we read about the U.S trial court making void the key patent of Yasmin, the contraceptive drug of Bayer for ‘obviousness’. This incident had compelled Bayer to revise its profit forecast downwards, for 2008.

‘Obviousness’ is increasingly becoming one of the key reasons for challenging Patents in many countries of the world, including India. Financial Times reported recently that keeping protection to all patents intact, could eventually pose to be a key challenge for the R&D based global pharmaceutical companies. Many analysts feel that the issue of “obviousness” could indeed be a threat to many U.S pharmaceutical patents, especially those, which will be considered by the court just as a ‘tweaked-up’ version of existing drugs.

As reported by ‘Chemical Weekly’, March 2008, total 338 patent challenges were recorded globally in 2008. India ranks only next to USA with a share of 21% pharmaceutical patent challenges.

Global generic pharmaceutical market is growing at a faster pace:

Prescription market in the U.S grew by just 1.3% last year to U.S$291 billion. Key factors believed to be responsible for slower growth in the U.S market are as follows:

1. Higher prescriptions for less expensive generic medicines.

2. Lower sales of higher priced new products.

3. Economic downturn has made more patients to move to generics and large number of consumers to lose their health insurance.

Similarly in the United Kingdom (U.K) generics industry supplies 64% of medicines dispensed by the National Health Scheme (NHS), though they contribute just around 30% of NHS expenditure towards medicines.

Recent reports indicate that the generic global pharmaceutical market is expected to record a turnover of U.S$ 520 billion by 2012. This market size is too lucrative to ignore by any big global pharmaceutical player.

Based on sales turnover of 2007, Teva tops the list of global generic players with a turnover of U.S$ 9.1 billion, followed by Sandoz with U.S$ 5.8 billion and Mylan/Merck with U.S$ 4.6 billion.

From India, Ranbaxy registered a turnover of U.S$ 1.7 billion, Dr.Reddy’s U.S$ 1.4 billion, Cipla U.S$ 1 billion and Sun Pharma/Taro U.S$ 900 million, during that year.

48% of the total 422.6 million prescriptions written in Canada in 2007 were for generic medicines, which registered an annual growth of 14%, reports IMS Canada. Compared to this performance, branded products in Canada recorded a growth of meager 0.2%, during this period. As a consequence, generic Canadian pharmaceutical companies like Novopharm (Teva) and Apotex recorded impressive growth of 46.8% and 18.5%, respectively, in that period.

Despite such outstanding performance of generic pharmaceuticals, overall growth of prescription drugs in Canada was at just 6.3%, the lowest in the last ten year period.

President Obama’s Healthcare Policy will encourage generics and biosimilar drugs:

It is widely believed that the new U.S administration under President Barak Obama will try to encourage speedy introduction of generics into the U.S market.

So far as ‘Biosimilar’ drugs are concerned, in 2009 Obama administration is expected to work out the road map to facilitate the introduction of ‘Biosimilar dugs’ in the U.S market. Due to inherent characteristics that biological are ‘grown and not just manufactured’, biosimilar drugs are not expected to be replica of the original products.

To find out a solution to the heated debate, an answer has to be found out regarding the extent of clinical trials that the ‘biosimilar’ manufacturers will require to undertake to satisfy the U.S FDA that these drugs are as safe as the original ones. It is believed by some that the answer to this question lies in the approach that gives regulatory authority the flexibility in ‘what it demands that asks for more evidence than is now required for generic drugs, but something less than the kind of full-blown trials required for products new to the market.’

Global pharmaceutical majors are developing appetite for generics business:

Keeping a close vigil on these developments, as it were, even Pfizer, the largest pharmaceutical player of the world, has started curving out a niche for itself in the global market of fast growing generics, following the footsteps of other large global players like Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi-Aventis and Daiichi Sankyo.

Is Pfizer planning to follow the business model of Abbott and Johnson & Johnson (J&J)?

As reported by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Mr. Kindler the CEO of Pfizer very recently commented, “We are breaking the company down into smaller units so we aren’t dependent on any single product… I am a great admirer of J&J and Abbott’s business model.”

It appears what Mr. Kindler perhaps meant by this statement is that smaller business units, like Over the Trade Counter (OTC), Vaccines, Nutrition and Animal Health can be more ‘manoeuvrable and innovative’ for faster business growth. Acquisition of Wyeth could actually help Pfizer to implement this business model.

Coming back to generic business, the recent collaborative arrangement of Pfizer with Aurobindo Pharma in India vindicates Pfizer’s recent appetite on generic global pharmaceutical business. The company is already in this business with some of its off patent products. But now like others, Pfizer seems to be strategizing to reap a rich harvest from fast-growing generic pharmaceutical business through most probably its “Established Products” business division.

Could such business model of Global Pharmaceutical majors pose a threat to pure generic players in the business?

The entry of the global pharmaceutical majors into generic pharmaceutical business, in my view, could pose a serious threat to current generic players in the business, including those who are operating from India in the ‘regulated markets’ of the world, for the the following reasons:

1. Generic pharmaceutical business is usually a high volume, relatively low margin and highly competitive business. To survive in this business of cut-throat competition will require both financial and innovative marketing expertise, as well as financial and marketing muscle, where large global players are expected to easily score over others.

2. Product price of generics of the same or similar molecules being within a price band, prescribers and payors’ preference are expected to be in favour of large global pharmaceuticals, because of corporate brand image.

3. In future, the pharmaceutical marketing model, in my view, is expected to shift from ‘marketing of only medicines’ to ‘marketing of a bundle of medicines and services’. In the changed scenario global pharmaceutical majors are expected to have a distinct strategic advantage.

4. Global Pharmaceutical majors may also use this business model as a ‘preventive strategy’ to restrict market entry of number of players for an off-patent molecule and thereby effectively contain the extent of price erosion, as the brands will go off-patent.

It will, therefore, be quite interesting to watch, what happens in the global generic pharmaceutical business in the next five to ten years. I expect a significant consolidation taking place in this market, both global and local.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Changing Business Model of Global Pharmaceutical Companies – a snapshot.

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Mounting pressure on P&L account, as the products go off patent:
Patented new products are prime growth drivers of research based pharmaceutical companies all over the world. Since last few years, because of various reasons, the number of launch of such products has been significantly reduced. To add fuel to the fire, 2010-12 will witness patent expiries of many more blockbuster drugs, depleting their growth potential even further.

The blockbuster model of growth engine of innovator companies effectively relies on a limited number of ‘winning horses’ to achieve their business goal and meeting the Wall Street expectations. In 2007, depleting pipeline of the blockbuster drugs hit a new low in the developed markets of the world. It is estimated that around U.S. $ 140 billion of annual turnover from blockbuster drugs will get almost shaved off due to patent expiry by the year 2016. IMS reports that in 2010, sales revenue of more than U.S. $ 30 billion will be adversely impacted due to patent expiry. Another set of blockbuster drugs with similar value turnover will go off patent just the year after i.e. in 2011. It will not be out of context to mention, that last year around U.S. $ 27 billion worth of patented drugs had gone off-patent.

The decline in R&D productivity has not been due to lack of investments. It has been reported that between 1993-2004, R&D expenditure by the global pharmaceutical industry rose from U.S.$ 16 billion to around U.S.$ 40 billion. However, during the same period the number of applications for New Chemical Entities (NCEs) filed annually to the U.S. FDA grew by just 7%.

The global expenditure on R&D was reported to have reached U.S. $ 55.2 billion in 2006. 75% of this expenditure was incurred by the U.S alone. It is interesting to note that only 22 NMEs received marketing approval by the US FDA during this period against 53 in 1996, when R&D expenditure was almost less than half of what was incurred in 2006.

Be that as it may, the pressure on P&L (Profit and Loss) accounts of these companies indeed keeps mounting.

The silver linings:

However, there seem to be following two silver linings in the present global R&D scenario, as reported by IMS:

1. Number of Phase I and Phase II drugs in the pipeline is increasing.

2. Applications for clinical trials in the U.S. rose by 11.6% to a record high of 662, last year.

Significant growth of generic pharmaceuticals is expected in near future, far surpassing the patented products growth:

Patent expiry of so many blockbuster drugs during this period will fuel the growth of generic pharmaceutical business, especially in the large developed markets of the world. The market exclusivity for 180 days being given to the first applicant with a paragraph 4 certification in the U.S. is, indeed, a very strong incentive, especially for the generic companies of India.

Pressure on Marketing expenditure:

The marketing expenditure for pharmaceutical of the global pharmaceutical companies as reported by Scrip is U.S. $ 57.5 billion. However, an international pharmaceutical industry association reported that research based pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. spent $ 29.4 billion on R&D and $ 27.7 billion on promotional activities.

New Product Differentiation could be a challenge:

Products in R&D pipeline could face problems of ‘differentiation’ in terms of value offering to the patients, once they are launched. This issue is expected to surface particularly with products related to oncology disease area. IMS Health reports that about 55 oncology projects are now in Phase III and 8 in the pre-registration stage. Thus about 50 new oncology products are expected to hit the market by end 2010. Many experts anticipate that there may not be significant brand differentiation between the brands of the ‘same basket’, leading to cut-throat competition and further pressure on expenditure towards marketing of brands.

The changing business model of global pharmaceutical companies during this trying time:

In this trying time, the global pharmaceutical companies are resorting to an interesting strategy, combing both traditional and the new business strategies. In this article, I shall touch upon following six strategies:

1. Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A):

Mega M&A strategies are still being actively followed by some large Pharmaceutical companies mainly to enrich R&D pipeline and achieve both revenue and cost synergies.

However, some of these large global companies have started realizing that ‘powerhouses’ created through past mega mergers and acquisitions have now become too large to manage effectively for various reasons. Mismatch between two different organization cultures also throws a great challenge to obtain desired output, many a times. Moreover, the merged R&D set up could become too large to manage, impacting the R&D productivity quite adversely.

2. Extension of Product Life Cycle and Effective Product Life Cycle Management:

Many global pharmaceutical companies are now engaged in ‘product life cycle management’ of their existing products by extending the ‘product life cycle’, effectively. In that process they are trying to maximize the brand value of these products in the international markets. For example, AstraZeneca has developed once daily treatment for their anti-psychotic drug Seroquel XR. This extended-release formulation will help patients avoid 5 to 7-day titration required with the immediate-release version of the same drug.

Towards similar initiative, Pfizer has also recently set up a dedicated “Established Product Business Unit” within worldwide pharmaceutical operations, to hasten business growth in the international markets.

3. Prescription to OTC Switch:

Prescription to ‘Over the Counter’ (OTC) switch is another business strategy that many innovator companies are now imbibing much aggressively and at a much larger scale.

This strategy is helping many global pharmaceutical companies, especially in Europe and the U.S to expand the indication of the drugs and thereby widening the patients base.

Recent prescription to OTC switches will include products like, Losec (AstraZeneca), Xenical (Roche), Zocor (Merck), etc.

4. Emerging of Preventive Therapy, like Vaccines:

Many large global companies, like GSK, Sanofi Aventis and Merck are getting attracted to emerging opportunities in the fast developing vaccines market. This trend was triggered primarily by heightened awareness and greater focus on preventive medicines, almost all over the world. It is estimated that in 2011, the vaccines market will grow from U.S.$ 13 billion to U.S.$ 30 billion registering a growth of 18% each year during this period. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimates vaccine market to be U.S. $ 42 billion by year 2015 based on data of 245 pure vaccines and 11 combination vaccines currently under clinical development. It is to be noted that 90 of these are therapeutic vaccines for cancer.

5. Entry into highly contentious market of Biosimilar drugs:

The Generic Pharmaceutical Association (GPhA) has estimated that it is possible to save US$ 10 billion – 108 billion over a period of 10 years with biosimilars in the top 12 categories of biological drugs. Some of these biological are already off patent and for others the patents will expire shortly.
Only a few biosimilar drugs have reached the global markets as on date. This is mainly because of regulatory restrictions for such drugs in most of the developed markets of the world. Even those biosimilar drugs, which have since been launched in Europe like, human growth hormone (HGH) Somatropin and Epoetin alfa for anemia, are yet to make a mark in the market place.

IMS Health reports that Omnitrope (somatropin) of Sandoz, the first biosimilar drug launched in the developed world, has registered less than 1% of the U.S. $ 831 million HGH market in Europe. Moreover, launch of 3 more biosimilar versions of epoetin alfa in 2007, made almost negligible impact in the market. Such a low acceptance of biosimilars in the western world, so far, could well be due to lingering safety concern of the medical profession with such types of drugs.

Currently, Japan and USA are working on formal guidelines for biosimilar drugs, whereas Health Canada has already issued draft regulatory guidelines for their approval in Canada.

6. Entry into Generic Markets:

Some large global pharmaceutical companies have already made a firm commitment to the generics market. Novartis paved the way for other innovator companies to follow this uncharted frontier as a global business strategy. Last year the generic business of Novartis (under Sandoz) recorded 19% of their overall net sales, with turnover from generics registering U.S$ 7.2 billion growing at 20%.

Keen business interest of Sanofi Aventis to acquire Zentiva, the generic pharmaceutical company of Czechoslovakia; it’s very recent acquisition of the generic pharmaceutical company Laboratorios Kendrick of Mexico and acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories of India by Daiichi Sankyo, will vindicate this point.

Pfizer has also maintained its generics presence with Greenstone in the U.S. and is using the company to launch generic versions of its own off patent products such as Diflucan (fluconazole) and Neurontin (gabapentin).

I guess that similar trend will continue, in future, as well.

Another ‘New Pharmaceutical Marketing Model’ is emerging:

Another ‘new pharmaceutical sales and marketing model’ is gradually emerging in the global markets. This model emphasizes partnership by bundling medicines with services. The key success factor, in this model, will depend on which company will offer better value with an integrated mix of medicines with services. PwC indicates that in this ‘new pharmaceutical marketing model’, besides required medicines, the expertise of a company to effectively deliver some key services like, patient monitoring and disease management could well be the key ingredients for success.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Global Pharmaceutical Industry: Capturing the micro-trends, having potential to become future mega-trends.

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The situation:Almost the entire developed world is reeling under recession… Slowed down business growth… Gradual drying up of research pipeline… Skyrocketing R&D cost… Pressure on product price …Market capitalization going south… Cut throat market competition… Depressed business sentiments…Past M&As are no longer yielding desired results… Global pharmaceutical companies are to lose nearly US$100 billionin sales as many blockbuster drugs are set to go off-patent over the next five years. Sounds quite like a dooms day! No, in my view, the industry including in India, is going through a transformation process. Is any trend emerging through this process? Yes, of course. Let us now try to capture these micro-trends, which have a potential to become tomorrow’s mega-trends.The response:

Before we delve into that, let us see how the global pharmaceutical industry has been responding to such a situation during this trying time. A strong instinct of survival, in such a situation, will undoubtedly prevail. This instinct is driving some of the large companies, with reasonably deep pocket, towards consolidation. This is happening through mergers, acquisitions and even through hostile takeovers.

Globally, from 2008 to date about 58 mergers and acquisitions have taken place, mega, big or small. Amid the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, Pfizer Inc., Merck & Co. and Roche Holding AG could raise a mindboggling amount of US $155 billion to expand and survive in their business.

This month Merck & Co acquired Schering Plough for US$41.1 billion in a cash-and-stock deal that will create the second largest pharmaceutical company in the USA. Richard Clarke, Chairman and CEO of Merck said that the merged company would benefit from the rich R&D pipeline, a significantly broader product portfolio and a wider presence in the global markets.

Besides enriching R&D pipeline and achieving substantial revenue synergy, the merged entity is expected to achieve significant cost synergy of about US$ 3.5 billion by 2011. This deal comes just six weeks after Pfizer Inc swallowed up Wyeth for a record US$68 billion. This move of Pfizer’s is not only expected to enlarge its product portfolio, but also to significantly reduce its dependence on Lipitor, which goes off-patent in 2011.

Just after these, Roche clinched a deal to acquire 44% of Genentech Inc with US$ 46 billion. In 2008 almost 75% of Pharmaceuticals sales of Roche were contributed by the products brought in from Genentech stable. This signifies the importance of acquisition of Genentech by Roche.

Will the M&A strategy be viable in the longer term?

All these companies are basically looking for various avenues to tide over the impending crisis, especially in their R&D pipeline by acquiring other suitable companies. However, looking at the past records, it appears that many of these mega mergers may not fetch a sustainable longer term gain. Insatiable desire to merge or acquire another company for various reasons, keep coming back to these companies after a little while, once again. Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Sanofi Aventis etc will stand as good examples. Some believe that merging just for the sake of width and depth of the R&D pipeline could have its underlying risks, as business compulsion of two different research cultures to come together may cause a serious adverse impact on ‘the climate of innovation’. Such a congenial environment very often plays a critical role in the process of discovery of breakthrough drugs. Probably because of this reason many questioned whether Genentech’s productive R&D culture can flourish under Roche’s full control.

Let me now deliberate on emerging micro-trends in the global pharmaceutical industry. All these micro-trends, in my view, are having potential to get transformed into mega-trends in not too distant future.

Micro-trend 1: Reorganization of large R&D set-ups into smaller units to foster innovation.

Despite creating large R&D set-up through mega mergers, we have also witnessed that some pharmaceutical majors like, GSK, are reorganizing the large R&D set-ups into smaller units to foster innovation, under the leadership of Andrew Witty, the current CEO. This strategy is expected to reap rich harvest.

Micro-trend 2: From concentrating exclusively on innovative medicines to expansion into low risk generic medicines.

Not so long ago Global R&D companies focused only the business of innovative prescription medicines. Low margin generic business was not their cup of tea. Today the scenario has made a 180 degree shift. Low risk, low cost and high volume turnover of generic business is now attracting many R&D based companies.

We are now witnessing another model of mergers and acquisitions, which was pioneered by Novartis some time back. An increasing number of companies are planning to spread their business in less risky generics pharmaceutical businesses. This business model will not require going through lengthy R&D and ever increasing stringent regulatory approval process for their entire product portfolio, in the developed markets of the world. Following this business model Daiichi Sankyo acquired Ranbaxy, in India. Sanofi-Aventis is in the process of acquiring the generic company of Eastern Europe, Zentiva. GSK acquired Pakistan operations of Bristol Myers Squibb, other generic business in South Africa and Egypt and mature products business of UCB in some selected markets of the world. Pfizer has also recently made somewhat similar move in India by entering into a strategic alliance with Aurobindo drugs for sourcing generic formulations for their global markets.

Micro-trend 3: From only prescription medicine business to businesses like, OTC, Nutrition, Diagnostics, Animal Health products, to reduce the business risk.

Some research based companies are now trying to somewhat insulate themselves from high risk R&D business by focusing on, besides generics, other low risk areas like, over the counter medicines (OTC), nutrition products, diagnostics, animal health businesses etc. Companies like, GSK, Pfizer, Roche will be good examples for such strategy.

Micro-trend 4: From sharp business focus mainly on top 10 markets of the world to extension of focus on key emerging markets of the world.

Not so long ago, large multinational companies (MNCs) used to have major focus on top 10 markets of the world. Now a days many of these companies are extending their business focus on emerging markets, like, India, Brazil, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico etc, which are riding high on a very strong growth curve, unlike USA, Europe or Japan.

In these markets to gain a critical mass, the MNCs will need to enter the generic business and the best way to do it is by acquiring a good generic company. For this reason, in India we may soon start witnessing MNCs acquiring large to mid-size domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies. Daiichi Sankyo has just shown the way by acquiring Ranbaxy in India. This process has not started in full swing, as yet, probably because of expected very high valuation for their respective companies, by the Indian promoters following Ranbaxy deal.

Micro-trend 5: Gradual shift in R&D focus from infectious to chronic to preventive (vaccines) to personalized medicines.

Global pharmaceutical industry got a head start with the innovative drugs to treat infectious diseases. It gained growth momentum by changing its R&D focus on non-infectious chronic disease areas. We now observe a micro-trend to move towards preventive therapy like vaccines even for cervical cancer. With the emergence of stem cell research in the USA and with the rapid progress of RNAi technology, very soon we may enter into the area of personalized medicines, as well. Thus, in my view preventive and personalized medicines will be the high growth pharmaceutical business of future. At that time, the pharmaceutical business model will change significantly though, to adapt to the changing business environment.

Is the era of Blockbuster drugs over?

Let me now reiterate that contrary to the belief of many, future R&D pipelines of the global pharmaceutical companies are not too dry, either. I am not in agreement with many pontificating that the future of blockbuster drugs is over. Published reports indicate that 581 primary-care driven NCEs covering disease areas like, Central Nervous System (CNS), Cardiovascular, Vaccines, Respiratory, Anti-infective etc, are currently in Phase I and Phase II stages. Similarly 637 specialist-care driven NCEs covering disease areas like, Oncologics, Autoimmune agents, HIV, Immunostimulants, Alzheimer, Immunosuppressive etc, are also in phase II and Phase III clinical trial stages. Altogether 1218 NCEs are currently in Phase II and Phase III stages of clinical trial.

Indian Pharmaceutical Companies – are they in a dilemma?

In sharp contrast to prevailing scenario in the global pharmaceutical industry, in India, after a paradigm shift to a new IPR regime, the domestic pharmaceutical industry seems to be in a great dilemma, to some extent they seem to be in a state of identity crisis. Many domestic companies seem to be getting too overawed by the change in their ‘reverse engineering’ business model, as a fuel for growth.

At this stage, it is very important for all these companies to appropriately change their business model based on their competitive strength and quickly adapt to the new paradigm. Instead of considering the research based global companies as competitors, they should look at them as potential collaborators for various outsourcing opportunities; starting from contract research, contract manufacturing to contract marketing, as well. Why not?

Need to move from fragmentation to consolidation for leveraging the business growth:
Indian pharmaceutical industry is now highly fragmented. This is the high time to move away from fragmentation to consolidation, which will help the domestic pharmaceutical industry to attain adequate scale to invest significantly in their well considered business model to fuel the growth engine.

India is making progress in pharmaceutical R&D:

In India some domestic pharmaceutical companies have made significant progress towards R&D output. Published information indicates that Biocon, Piramal Healthcare, Glenmark, Ranbaxy and Suven Life Sciences have between them 45 NCEs. Most of these fall under oncology, infectious, metabolic and respiratory disease areas. Out of these 19 NCEs are in pre-clinical and the balance are in Phase I& Phase II clinical trial stages.

To sum-up, I witness the following micro-trends globally, which we should keep tracking with interest:

 Reorganization of large R&D set-ups into smaller units to foster innovation.

 From concentrating exclusively on innovative medicines to expansion into low risk generic
medicines.

 From only prescription medicine business to businesses like, OTC, Nutrition, Diagnostics, Animal
Health products, to dilute the business risk.

 From sharp business focus mainly on top 10 markets of the world to extension of focus on key
emerging markets of the world.

 Gradual shift in R&D focus from infectious to chronic to preventive (vaccines) to personalized
medicines.

WILL THE BALL GAME BE QUITE DIFFERENT TOMORROW?

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Biosimilar Drugs -A raging scientific debate with mounting global commercial interest

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On December 11, 2008, Reuters reported that two days after Merck & Co. announced a major push into generic versions of biotechnology medicines, Eli Lilly & Co. signaled similar aspirations. This report raised many eyebrows in the global pharmaceutical industry, in the midst of a raging scientific debate on this issue. Be that as it may, many felt that this announcement ushered in the beginning of a new era. An era of intense future competition with Biosimilar drugs in the world market with immense commercial interest.Globally, the scenario for generic versions of biotechnology medicines, which are called Biosimilars, Biogenerics or follow-on Biologics, started heating up when Merck announced that the company expects to have atleast 5 follow-on biologics in the late stage development by 2012. The announcement of both Merck and Eli Lilly surprised many, as the largest pharmaceutical market of the world – the U.S.A is yet to approve the regulatory pathway for generic biologic medicines. In the developed world, European Union (EU) has taken a lead towards this direction by already having a system in place for regulatory approval of Biosimilar drugs in 2003.What then prompts the research based global pharmaceutical companies like Merck and Eli Lilly to step into the arena of Biosimilar medicines? Is it gradual drying up research pipeline together with skyrocketing cost of global R&D initiatives?

The future business potential of Biosimilar medicines:

Currently, over 150 different biologic medicines are available in the Global Pharmaceutical market. However, the low cost Biosimilar drugs are available in just around 11 countries of the world, India being one of them. Supporters of Biosimilar medicines are indeed swelling as time passes by. At present, the key global players are Sandoz (Novartis), Teva, BioPartners, BioGenerix (Ratiopharm) and Bioceuticals (Stada). This market is expected to develop slowly because of regulatory hurdles in the major countries of the world.

Very recently, the EU has approved Sandoz’s (Novartis) Filgrastim (Neupogen brand of Amgen), which is prescribed for the treatment of Neutropenia. With Filgrastim, Sandoz will now have 3 Biosimilar products in its portfolio.

Raging debate on Biosimilar Drugs still continues:

The debate is centered on the argument that like small chemical molecules is it possible to replicate large biological molecule of the innovator? It is widely believed that a protein cannot be absolutely replicated. How could possibly then Biosimilar drugs be considered equivalent to the original product by a regulator and marketing approval be granted to them without full scale clinical trials ignoring safety concerns of the patients? In favor of this argument some refer to the problem of red cell aplasia that affected many patients administering Johnson & Johnson’s Exprex (Epoetin) after only a minor change made in its manufacturing procedure.

Hurdles to cross for future Market entry of Biosimilar Drugs:

Emergence of second generation branded biosimilar products such as PEGylated products Pegasys and PegIntron (peginterferon alpha) and Neulasta (pegfilgrastim), and insulin analogs etc. have the potential to reduce the market size for first generation Biosimilar drugs creating significant entry barrier.

Even otherwise, the barriers to market entry of Biosimilar drugs are much higher than any small molecule generic drug. In the markets within EU, many companies face the challenge of higher development costs for biosimilar drugs because of stringent regulatory requirements and greater lead time for product development. Navigating through such a tough regulatory environment will demand a different type of skill sets from the generic companies not only in areas of clinical trials and pharmacovigilance, but also in areas of manufacturing and marketing. Consequently, the investment needed to take Biosimilar drugs from clinical trials to launch in the developed markets, will indeed be quite significant.

Current Scenario in the U.S:

Recently in the U.S.A, the new, widely reported, biotechnology policy of President Barak Obama has become one of the most closely watched healthcare policy initiatives of the country. It is expected that such a policy will help facilitate regulatory approval process of Biosimilar drugs in the USA by end 2009. This new policy initiative could have a major impact on many biotech companies who will face new generic competition, rather quickly. On the other hand, it will prove to be a boon to the new entrants in this market like, Merck and Eli Lilly, besides the existing ones.

Global Market Potential of Biosimilar Drugs:

The biosimilar drug market in the world is estimated to be around U.S. $ 16 billion by 2011. Currently, off-patent biologic blockbusters including Erythropoietin offer an excellent commercial opportunity in this category of drugs. By 2013, about 10 branded biologics with a total turnover of around U.S. $ 15 billion will go off-patent.

Biosimilar Drugs in India:

Sales of biosimilar drugs in India are estimated to be around U.S. $ 4 billion by 2011.

Biosimilar drugs fall under high growth segment within Indian pharmaceutical Industry. Recombinant vaccines, erythropoietin, recombinant insulin, monoclonal antibody, interferon alpha, granulocyte cell stimulating factor like products are manufactured by a number of domestic biotech companies like Biocon, Panacea Biotech, Wockhardt, Emcure, Shantha Biotech, Bharat Biotech, Serum Institute of India, Dr. Reddy’s, Ranbaxy, etc. The ultimate objective of all these Indian companies, I am sure, will be to get regulatory approval of such products in the EU and then in the U.S. when the time comes.

It is worth mentioning here that to give a fillip to the Biotech Industry in India, the National Biotechnology Board was set up by the Government of India under the Ministry of Science and Technology in 1982 and the Department of Biotechnology (DBT) came into existence in 1986. The DBT now spends around US$ 200 million annually to develop biotech resources in the country and have been making reasonably good progress. The DBT is reported to have undertaken an initiative to prepare regulatory guidelines for Biosimilar Drugs, which is expected to conform to international quality and patients’ safety requirements.

The points to ponder with the Biosimilar Drugs in India:

It is, indeed, quite surprising that in India there is still no separate transparent and published guidelines for regulatory approval of Biosimilar drugs, although the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) seems to have a different view in this matter. The Drugs and Cosmetics Acts of India have no separate provisions either, for Biosimilar Drugs. In a situation like this, we find that many Biosimilar Drugs are still getting regulatory approval in India.

Currently India supplies 30% by volume of the global requirements of generic drugs both in regulated and non-regulated markets. In the regulated markets like North America and EU, for small molecule generic products, Indian manufacturers conform to the global safety and efficacy standards by getting these products approved by the most stringent regulators of the world like, U.S. FDA, MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency) etc. The very fact that none of the Biosimilar drugs developed in India could get approval in the EU as yet, may well suggest that the stringent regulatory requirements for both efficacy and patients’ safety followed in the EU for Biosimilar drugs, could not be met by the Indian manufacturers, as yet. The question, therefore, comes to my mind whether the Biosimilar drugs manufactured in India conform to international quality and safety standards? If not, who will address the safety concerns of the patients who are or will be administering these medicines?

Such a concern gets vindicated by widely reported serious quality problems, detected by the drug regulatory authorities, at some large and well known Biosimilar drugs manufacturing units in India and also from the condition of some vaccine manufacturing units in our country.

India needs to manufacture the world class Biosimilar drugs conforming to the highest efficacy and patients’ safety standards, just the way Indian pharmaceutical manufacturers have demonstrated with ‘made in India’ generic drugs, the world over. The Indian drug regulatory authority should now take some important initiative with the publication of world class Biosimilar drugs regulatory approval guidelines, may be following the similar process as what we see in the EU.

Currently, experts from India are participating towards preparation of ‘WHO Guidelines’ for Biosimilar Drugs. The progress made towards this direction is yet to be ascertained. Simultaneously, the DBT is reported to have under taken an independent initiative to prepare similar guidelines, the progress of which is also yet to be known.

Before other developed markets open up for Biosimilar drugs, if India can align itself with its own world class regulatory standards for the same, yet another significant export opportunity could be created for the country, competing with the best performers of the world in this category.

Meanwhile, it will only be good to know that like many other initiatives, India has taken one more important initiative to address this important issue, for the sake of humanity. As the existing process of granting regulatory approval for Biosimilar drugs continues in India, the lurking fear towards patients’ safety with such drugs will remain unabated with a large majority of experts in this field.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.