Tag Archives: global

A global pharmaceutical iconoclast, who sees “Fortune” beyond the creamy top layers of the society … even at the bottom of the Pyramid

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In March 2009 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) unraveled a path breaking vision, within the global pharmaceutical industry, with the creation of a ‘voluntary patent pool’to spark development of new treatments for neglected diseases of the poorest countries of the world.

The head honcho of GSK Andrew Witty articulated, as reported by Reuters, ‘he feels that this is the right way to help research, especially of tropical diseases like malaria, filariasis, cholera etc. to meet the unmet needs of the poorer population of the world’.

Cares for the poor:
Simultaneously, Witty also announced that GSK will sell its patented medicines in the 50 poorest countries of the world at 25% of their cost in the developed nations and invest 20% of profits made in these poorest countries to help creating and developing local healthcare infrastructure and treatment facilities for the indigenous population.

It appeared to me that this young global pharma CEO is charting the yet uncharted frontiers where there are no footsteps to follow. Witty attained this iconic status when he aired his views without slightest hesitation by admitting openly, “Society expects us to do more in addressing these issues. To be frank, I agree. We have the capacity to do more and we can do more”.

Challenged the global pharmaceutical industry:
The young CEO, to utter surprise of many, further added, “he was challenging the industry to go further to address global health problems by being more flexible on patent protection and pricing in the neediest countries”.

That was March 2009…Came March 2010…

Repeated the firm resolve:
During his visit to India in March 2010, Witty reiterated the same resolve with unequivocal clarity. When a Journalist from “The Economics Times” asked him, ‘There are concerns among some of your global peers about the patent and regulatory environment in this country. Are you concerned with the existing regulatory environment in India?’, Witty replied with his usual conviction and élan as follows:

“I am relatively relaxed with the Indian regulatory environment. The government has made it clear about the direction to have an intellectual property (IP) mechanism and to be TRIPS compliant. Some people are unrealistic and want everything to change overnight. But we should be absolutely realistic about pricing to keep it affordable for India. If someone has the IP right, it does not mean that it should make it inaccessible for lower income people. Over the next 10-15 years India will become increasingly IP defined market.”

Is it a mere ‘lip service?’:
If you ask me, does this leader belong to a different genre? I shall reply with an emphatic ‘yes’. Andrew Witty seems to be indeed ‘walking the talk’ and is understandably quite capable of thinking much beyond of pleasing ‘The Wall Street’ and the likes of it, just with quarter to quarter business performance and ‘guidance’. He thinks about the patients both rich and poor. There are no reasons to doubt this patient-centric noble intent, Nor does it appear to me as a mere ‘lip service’.

One can interpret a ‘one-off statement’ made by any global pharma CEO in a way that one would like to. However, repetition of the same statement time and again in different counties possibly reflects nothing but firm resolves of a young visionary, determined to translate the same into reality with unprecedented courage.

Conclusion:
This iconic CEO, I reckon, is doing no charity or philanthropy with his path breaking vision, as those are not certainly the purpose of any business. Neither should one do charity or philanthropy with shareholders’ money and without their clear consent. Andrew Witty, in my view, perhaps is in the same page as with the management Guru C.K. Prahalad, who first postulated, now an oft repeated hypothesis, ‘The fortune at the bottom of the pyramid’.
Witty, as I have been witnessing, has already demonstrated his prowess with the traditional pharmaceutical global business model, in a comparative yardstick. Now professionally equipped with a strong pharmaceutical marketing background, honed over so many years, I am sure, Andrew will succeed even more in curving out a lion’s share of the global pharmaceutical business for his company, in the long run, creating a win-win situation for much over six billion global people, including a vast majority of the ailing, poor, neglected, hungry and marginalized population of the world.
By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Does Global financial meltdown vindicate that “Globalization is not Americanization”?

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The economic might of the most powerful nation of the world, the United States of America, was humbled during the recent global financial crisis. Long term sustainability of the financial models and the policies, which the country has been practising for quite some time, raised more questions than answers. It raised serious doubt on the American model of the free market economy, which in not too distant past, the entire world, by and large, used to consider as the right foot steps to follow for economic progress of any nation.

‘State of the Union address 2010’ of President Obama:

Today while managing the newer type of economic crisis with the ‘pump priming’ strategy, bolstered with direct state interventions of various kind, the nightmare that has started haunting the US President is the possible emergence of China and India as the powerful economic super powers of the world, leaving the mighty US far behind. In fact, in his ‘State of the Union address 2010’, the US president shared this fear with his nation.

A new equation in the process of globalization:

Has this crisis ushered in the dawn of a new era with a new equation in globalization process? Has it not proved that regulated and calibrated reform measures by the financial institutions, like what is happening in India, are much less fragile than US model of open market free for all capitalism?

The European Union (EU) in general which Tony Blair, the former Prime Minister of the UK once clarified during the Iraq war, is not the ‘poodle’ of the US, has proved itself to be exactly so, even during this economic crisis. The financial catastrophe of the US creation has vindicated to the global community beyond doubt that it is not the western world in general and the US in particular which will hold the key of progress of the global economy in the years to come by.

The balance of the global economy is now tilting to the East:

The balance of the global economic power is now tilting from the West to the East… and that too, not very slowly. As someone said very aptly, “Globalization is not Americanization”. The global community seems to have realized this truth, by now.

The new emerging economic world order:

Emerging economies of the world came as a savior to address this global crisis. G20 and not the G8 countries, became more relevant in the new world order.

The Outlook of 2010 is no brighter and does not stimulate the business confidence with increasing debt and unemployment levels in both the US and the EU.

The new emerging economic world order will witness more financial regulations and stricter state interventions in future. Even in a country like the USA, which used to believe in free market economy, one now witnesses significant state interventions and protectionists’ mindset while dealing with existing business process outsourcing initiatives, especially to countries like India.

India is less impacted:

Compared to the developed world in the West, India has been relatively less impacted by the financial meltdown initiated in 2008, mainly because of the following reasons:

1. Domestic demand is the key factor for the growth story of India

2. Reliance on foreign currency savings is low

3. Robust regulatory measures on investments abroad by the Indian nationals

4. Regulatory control on speculative financial transactions

5. Robust financial policy measures to ensure financial stability of the nation

In this context, Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission said:

“The global financial turmoil will not have any significant impact on the country’s financial system as India is not exposed to the new and innovative financial instruments that triggered the meltdown. We have not been as exposed to these new and innovative instruments, which have been the source of financial distress internationally… So the direct impact on the Indian financial system is not going to be significant at all.”

Is American model of ‘free market economy’ a sustainable economic pathway?

This particular global financial crisis has raised the important question whether the American model of ‘free market economy’, which considers the market as the sole determinant of financial progress, is a sustainable economic pathway or not.

The elite G8 group of countries was not very concerned about the needs of the rest of the world:

The G8 group of countries comprising of seven of the world’s leading elite group of industrialized nations, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Canada and Russia, many believe, just represent the interest of the industrialized nations and not quite concerned with the needs of the rest of the world. Fast growing developing economies like India and China and Latin American and African countries do not have any representation in this elite world. It is not just a sheer coincidence that most of the G8 countries, if not all, have been badly impacted by the global economic downturn.

The G20 group of countries came as a savior:

In April 2009 the leaders of the G20 group of countries, which include India, in their London meet came to the rescue and pledged to bring the world economy out of recession. The pledges were as follows:

1. Help countries fight the economic crisis with U.S $1.1 trillion deal

2. Provide stimulus measures of a total of U.S $5 trillion to boost their own economies

3. Reach an agreement on shifting IMF voting power to under-represented countries.

4. Regulate hedge funds

5. Curb Tax havens

6. Bring restrictions on banking bonuses

Most of these pledges, except perhaps point 4, have since then either fully or partly been met. The global financial crisis has now been partly contained. However, the G8 group of countries is still struggling to fully grapple with this economic downturn.

Conclusion:

Despite all these, the overall economic growth of India is still quite encouraging with commensurate significant growth across almost all industries. At the very beginning of 2010, the government has started actively considering to prune its fiscal stimulus package extended to the industry, in a calibrated way.

India is marching ahead towards globalization process, albeit differently, realizing perhaps that “Globalization is not Americanization”.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Are common patients in India just as the pawns of the game of chess or the victims of circumstances or both, in the socio-economic milieu of the country?

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“Public healthcare in India has the power to deliver improved health outcomes, as demonstrated by a growing number of national and international examples. However, supportive policies need to be put in place in order to change traditional determinants of health,”said Professor Sir Andrew Haines, Director, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine at the third foundation day function of the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), not so long ago.The healthcare industry of India has indeed this power, which can catapult the industry to a growth orbit to generate an impressive revenue of around US$.150 billion by 2017 as estimated by India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) in November 2009. This growth will be driven primarily by the private investments in country.Be that as it may, the current healthcare standard and infrastructure in India, as we all know, is far from satisfactory. Though we have some healthcare centers of excellence spread sporadically across various cities and towns of India, public healthcare facilities are grossly inadequate to satisfy the current healthcare demand of the common man of India.

Healthcare spends in India:

Although total health spending of the nation is around 6 percent of its GDP being one of the highest within the developing countries of the world, public expenditure towards healthcare is mere 0.9 percent of the GDP and constitutes just a quarter of the total healthcare cost of the nation. According to a World Bank study, around 75 percent of the per capita spending are out of pocket expenditure of individual households, state and the union governments contribute around 15.2 percent and 5.2 percent respectively, health insurance and employers contribute just 3.3 percent and foreign donors and state municipalities contributing the balance of 1.3 percent.

Out of this meager allocated expenditure only 58.7% goes for the primary care.

Four essentials in Primary Healthcare:

When it comes to Primary Healthcare, following are the well accepted essentials that the government should effectively address:

1. Healthcare coverage to all, through adequate supply of affordable medicines and medical services

2. Patient centric primary healthcare infrastructure and networks

3. Participative management of healthcare delivery models including all stakeholders with a change from ‘supply driven’ to ‘demand driven’ healthcare program and policies

4. Health of the citizens should come in the forefront while formulating all policies for all sectors including industry, environment, education, deployment of labor, just to cite a few examples.

It is unfortunate that most of these essentials have not seen the light of the day, as yet.

The key reason for failure:

Inability on the part of the central government to effectively integrate healthcare with socio-economic, social hygiene, education, nutrition and sanitation related issues is one of the key factors for failure in this critical area.

Moreover in the healthcare planning process, health being a state subject, not much of coordinated planning has so far taken place between the central and the state governments to address the pressing healthcare related issues.

In addition, budgetary allocation and other fiscal measures, as stated earlier, towards healthcare both by the central and the state governments are grossly in adequate.

National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) – a good beginning:

To address this critical issue, the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) was conceived and announced by the government of India. NRHM aims at providing valuable healthcare services to rural households of the 18 States of the country namely, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Orissa, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tripura, Uttarkhand and Uttar Pradesh, to start with.

The key objectives of this novel scheme are as follows:

• Decrease the infant and maternal mortality rate
• Provide access to public health services for every citizen
• Prevent and control communicable and non-communicable diseases
• Control population as well as ensure gender and demographic balance
• Encourage a healthy lifestyle and alternative systems of medicine through AYUSH

As announced by the government NRHM envisages achieving its objective by strengthening “Panchayati Raj Institutions” and promoting access to improved healthcare through the “Accredited Female Health Activist” (ASHA). It also plans on strengthening existing Primary Health Centers, Community Health Centers and District Health Missions, in addition to making maximum use of Non-Governmental Organizations.

NRHM is expected to improve access to healthcare by 20 to 25 percent in the next three years:

To many the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) has made a significant difference to the rural health care system in India. It now appears that many more state governments are envisaging to come out with innovative ideas to attract and retain public healthcare professionals in rural areas.

On January 11, 2010, the Health Minister of India Mr. Ghulam Nabi Azad, while inaugurating the FDA headquarters of the Western Zone located in Mumbai, clearly articulated that the NRHM initiative will help improving access to affordable healthcare and modern medicines by around 20 to 25 percent during the next three years. This means that during this period access to modern medicines will increase from the current 35 percent to 60 percent of the population.

If this good intention of the minister gets translated into reality, India will make tremendous progress in the space of healthcare, confirming the remarks made by Professor Sir Andrew Haines, Director, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, as quoted above.

Is NRHM scheme good enough to address all the healthcare needs of the country?

NRHM is indeed a very good and noble initiative taken by the government to address the basic healthcare needs of the rural population, especially the marginalized section of the society. However, this is obviously not expected to work as a magic wand to resolve all the healthcare related issues of the country.

Are patients the pawns of the game of chess or the victims of circumstances or both of the socio-economic systems?

Currently, some important stakeholders of the healthcare industry seem to be using the patients or taking their names, mainly for petty commercials gains or strategic commercial advantages. They could be doctors, hospitals, diagnostic centers, pharmaceutical industry, activists, politicians or any other stakeholders. It is unfortunate that they all, sometime or the other, want to use the patients to achieve their respective commercial or political goals or to achieve competitive gains of various types or just for vested interests..

‘The Patient centric approach’ has now become the buzz word for all – do we ‘walk the talk’?

There does not seem to be much inclusiveness in the entire scheme of things in the private healthcare system, excepting some odd but fascinating examples like Dr. Devi Shetty, Sankara Nethralaya etc. As a result, excepting the creamy layers, patients from all other strata of society are finding it difficult to bear the treatment cost of expensive private healthcare facilities.

I personally know a working lady with a name Kajol (name changed) whose husband is suffering from blood cancer. One will feel very sad to watch how is she fast losing all her life’s savings for the treatment of her husband, pushing herself, having no alternative means, towards an extremely difficult situation day by day. There are millions of such Kajols in our society, who are denied of effective public healthcare alternatives to save lives of their loved ones.

If all stakeholders are so “patient centric” in attaining their respective objectives, why will over 650 million people of India not have access to modern medicines, even today? Is it ALL for poor healthcare infrastructure and healthcare delivery system in the country? If so, why do we have millions of Kajol’s in our country?

Consumer awareness and pressure on healthcare services and medicines in India will increase – a change for the better:

With the winds of economic change, rising general income levels especially of the middle income population, faster awareness and penetration of health insurance among the common citizens, over a period of time Indian consumers in general and the patients, in particular, like in the developed countries of the world, will start taking more and more informed decisions by themselves about their healthcare needs and related expenditure through their healthcare providers.

As the private healthcare providers will emerge in India, much more in number, like the developed world, they will concentrate not only on their financial and operational efficiencies exerting immense pressure on other stakeholders to squeeze out the best deal at the minimal cost, but also to remain competitive will start charting many uncharted frontiers and explore ways of enhancing the ‘feel good factors’ of the patients through various innovative ways… God willing.

Conclusion:

All stakeholders of the healthcare industry need to think of inclusive growth, not just the commercial growth, which could further widen the socio-economic divide in the country, creating numbers of serious social issues. As we know, this divide has already started widening at a brisk pace, especially in the healthcare sector of the country

It is hightime for the civil society, as well, to ponder and actively participate to make sure that the inclusive growth of the healthcare sector in India takes place, where like primary education, primary healthcare should be the ‘fundamental right’ for ALL citizens of the country.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

India as a global pharmaceutical outsourcing hub: Some key advantages and the areas of improvement.

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All over the world, pharmaceutical research and development pipelines are gradually getting dried up. Lesser and lesser blockbuster drugs are now coming up from the ‘mind to the market’. Currently the average annual turnover of over 90% of patented drugs is around US $150 million each. At the same time regulatory requirements to obtain the marketing approval are becoming more and more stringent, spiralling the R&D costs of the innovator companies very significantly.
The name of the game:

In today’s perspective of the global pharmaceutical industry, ‘competitive efficiency’ in speed of implementation of various projects and optimizing costs of operations, can be easily considered as the ‘name of the game’.
Such competitive efficiency is as much essential for a relatively quick turnaround from ‘the mind to market’ of New Chemical Entities (NCEs) or New Molecular Entities (NMEs), to reducing manufacturing costs through various outsourcing opportunities and/or innovative application of technology and spreading geographical marketing operational network.

Towards this direction, ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ in R&D, manufacturing, clinical trials etc. is now gradually emerging as one of the most critical ways to achieve this important objective. It is expected that gradually outsourcing of specialized manufacturing like, biopharmaceutical and sterile manufacturing and specialized processes like, improvements in catalyst activity, will be gaining grounds.

India is emerging as a potential outsourcing hub:

India is fast emerging as a key player in the outsourcing business of the global companies, with its high quality facilities, world class services at a very competitive cost, in various areas of pharmaceutical business operations. India is not only a vibrant democracy, it has now a good Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) system in place and offers very significant cost advantages both in contract research and contract manufacturing space, as compared to many other countries.

Many Indian pharmaceutical companies are scaling up their capacities and investing in establishing more number of world class facilities. Currently India has over 100 pharmaceutical plants approved by the US foods and drugs administration. Incidentally this number is the largest outside the USA.

The key advantages:

India with its total pharmaceutical market size of around US $ 14 billion offers both value and cost arbitrage, which are as follows:

1. Familiarity with the regulatory environment and requirements of the developed markets

2. Extensive global operations in the generics business

3. World class facilities

4. Lower employee wages

5. Large number of young workforce

6. High capacity of skilled labour (350,000 engineers/year)

7. High quality of engineers, process chemists

8. Low communication barriers due to high levels of English

9. Speed of operation

10. Cost effective IT infrastructure, facilitating all key business processes

Contract research investment strategies of the global companies in India:

Most common investment strategy in the collaborative arrangement is risk-sharing outsourcing co-development of a NCE/NME. For example, Johnson & Johnson (J&J) signed an outsourcing agreement with Advenus Therapeutics of India in November 2008 with a contract value of US $ 247 million including milestone and royalty payments in the areas of inflammation and metabolic diseases. In this contract Advinus will be responsible for development upto ‘the proof of concept’ (Phase II a) and then J&J will take over till commercialization of the molecule.

Areas of improvements:

1. Biotech contract research as a whole

2. Economies of scale in manufacturing products like, recombinant proteins, small interfering Ribonucleic Acid (siRNAs), vaccines, antibodies etc.

3. Fully integrated service offerings in contract research and contract manufacturing

4. In genomics and proteomics research

5. Pre-clinical research

In all these important areas our neighbouring country China seems to score over India

Conclusion:

Availability of world class contract research and manufacturing facilities and the ability of the domestic pharmaceutical industry to deliver the agreed deliverables in a cost-efficient manner with desired operational speed, make India a potential contract research and manufacturing hub of the world.

India can expect to compete effectively in these areas with any other countries, including China, provided the improvement areas, as indicated above, are addressed with equal speed of action and with a missionary zeal.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Biosimilars: Creating new vistas of opportunities for Indian Bio Pharmaceutical players in the global market.

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Biosimilar or follow-on biologic drugs market is fast evolving across the world with varying degree of pace and stages of developments. The global market for Bio-pharmaceuticals was around US$ 120 billion in 2008, as reported by IMS. However, total turnover of Biosimilar drugs in the regulated markets during the same period was just US$ 60 million.

Currently about 25% of New Molecular Entities (NMEs) under development are of biotech origin. Indian pharmaceutical majors like Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Reliance Life Science, Shantha Biotech, Ranbaxy, Biocon, Wockhardt and Glenmark have made good investments in biotech drugs manufacturing facilities keeping an eye on the emerging opportunities with Biosimilar drugs in the developed markets of the world.

International Scenario:

Internationally most known companies in the Biosimilar drugs space are Teva, Stada, Hospira and Sandoz.

The first R&D focused global pharmaceutical company that expressed interest in this space is Merck & Co. In December 2008 Merck announced creation of ‘Merck Bio Venture’ for this purpose with an investment commitment of around US$ 1.5 billion by 2015.

Other large research based global innovator pharmaceutical companies, which so far have expressed interest in the field of Biosimilar drugs are Pfizer, Astra Zeneca and Eli Lilly.

Future market Potential:

IMS Health, July 2009 reports that only in the US from 2009 to 2013 about 8 major biologic products like for example, Enbrel (Amgen/J&J), Lovenox (Sanofi-Aventis), Zoladex (AstraZeneca), Mabthera (Roche), Humalog (Eli Lilly) and Novorapid (Novo Nordisk) are expected to go off patent. The sum total of revenue from these drugs will be over U.S$ 15 billion.

This throws open immense opportunities for the Indian companies working on Biosimilar drug development initiatives.

Regulatory pathway for Biosimilar drugs:

Currently EU is the largest Biosimilar market in the world. Immense healthcare cost containment pressure together with a large number of high value biologics going off patent during next five years, especially in the developed western markets like US and EU, are creating a new vista of opportunities in this field to the potential players.

Regulatory pathway for Biosimilar drugs exists in the European Union (EU) since 2005. In the USA President Barak Obama administration has already expressed its clear intention to have similar pathway established in the country through the US-FDA, which is expected to come by 2010.

Steps taken by the Indian pharmaceutical companies towards this direction:

Biosimilar version of Rituxan (Rituximab) of Roche used in the treatment of Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma has already been developed by DRL in India. Last year Rituxan clocked a turnover of over US$ 2 billion. DRL also has developed filgastrim of Amgen, which enhances production of white blood-cell by the body, and markets the product as Grafeel in India. Similarly Ranbaxy has collaborated with Zenotech Laboratories to manufacture G-CSF. Meanwhile Biocon of Bangalore has commenced clinical trial of Insugen for the regulated markets like EU.

On the other hand Glenmark is planning to come out with its first biotech product by 2010 from its biological research establishment located in Switzerland.

Within Biopharmaceuticals the focus is on Oncology:

Within Biopharmaceuticals many of these domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies are targeting Oncology disease area, which is estimated to be the largest segment with a value turnover of over US$ 55 billion by 2010 growing over 17%. As per recent reports about 8 million deaths take place all over the world per year due to cancer. May be for this reason the research pipeline of NMEs is dominated by oncology with global pharmaceutical majors’ sharp R&D focus and research spend on this particular therapy area. About 50 NMEs for the treatment of cancer are expected to be launched in the global markets by 2015.

Indian market for oncology products:

Current size of the Indian oncology market is around US$ 18.6 million, which is expected to be over US$ 50 million by the end of 2010; the main reason being all these are and will be very expensive products. Biocon has just launched its monoclonal antibody based drug BIOMAb-EGFR for treating solid tumours with an eye to introduce this product in the western markets, as soon as they can get regulatory approval from these countries. Similarly, Ranbaxy with its strategic collaboration with Zenotech Laboratories is planning to market oncology products in various markets of the world like Brazil, Mexico, CIS and Russia.

Conclusion:

As the R&D based global innovator companies are now expanding into the Biosimilar space, many Indian domestic pharmaceutical companies are also poised to leverage their R&D initiatives on Biosimilars drugs development to fully encash the emerging global opportunities in this space. It is quite prudent for the Indian players to focus on the Oncology therapy area, as it is now the fastest growing segment in the global pharmaceutical industry.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Recent global meet on climate change in Copenhagen: what were achieved and what were not.

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Long before the commencement of Copenhagen climate change meet, many from all over the world started talking passionately about the “dangerous climate change”, which as we know deals with the issue of increase of global temperature of 2 degrees Celsius (2C) from the preindustrial level.

This issue was discussed at length in Copenhagen and an accord was ultimately announced on December 18, 2009 followed by a plenary session on December 19, 2009.

What does it say?

The Accord is a 12-paragraph document of statement of intents and non-binding pledges to address the “dangerous climate change” issues.

Towards this direction the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Copenhagen recommended even to the developed countries of the world to reduce carbon emission from their respective 1990 level by not less than 25% by 2020, from when the global carbon emission is expected to start declining.

USA and China were the key partners of IPCC with a strong supporting role played by Brazil, South Africa and India to have an accord that suits the emerging large developing economies of the world. The accord though recommends to the developed countries, barring the US, to ensure their carbon emission cuts, but not under the Kyoto Protocol. Most influential 26 countries of the world agreed with this accord and other 192 countries, though appeared to be unhappy in the plenary session, accepted the same with their ‘silence’, which perhaps means indirect consent.

The key points of the accord:

The main points of the Copenhagen Accord are as follows:

• Cooperation by all in containing emissions within 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

• To reduce carbon emission, the developing nations will report in every two years on their non-binding voluntary actions. This report will be subject to international consultations and analysis.

• US $ 10 billion each year will be financed by the developed countries for a three-year program to pay for the projects taken up by the poorer nations to develop clean energy and effectively address drought and other climate-change impacts.

• A goal of mobilizing US $ 100 billion per year by 2020 was also set for achieving the same objectives.

Is this accord a triumph of USA or China or the BASIC countries?

This accord is seen by some as a triumph of the USA to influence the ultimate outcome of the Copenhagen climate change summit. US President Barack Obama, in fact, brought back the negotiation from the brink of collapse, at the last minute, through hectic negotiation with the heads of states of Brazil, South Africa, India and China (BASIC countries).

What will the success of the summit depend upon?

The success of this accord will depend on whether the USA will be able to live up to its promises to reduce carbon emissions in their own country and help other countries to address the same by raising billions of dollars.

BASIC countries, especially China, emerged stronger:

The process of this accord also witnessed China coming stronger leveraging their clout in a multilateral forum of the African continent, which is very rich in various valuable natural resources. However, many other less powerful nations, as said earlier, felt left out in this deal brokered mainly by the US initiative and interest.

Thus even after reaching the accord, at the plenary session on the last Saturday, a large number of speakers from the developing nations sharply criticized the deal alleging it as a pact meant only for the rich and BASIC countries.

Lack of a clear roadmap:

Be that as it may, without a clear road map for research and development of low-carbon technologies and no binding collective carbon emission target, achieving 2C by 2020 still remains a pipe dream.

Conclusion:

After the Copenhagen Accord, Brazil, South Africa, India and China (BASIC), the four large emerging economies of the world, were immensely successful to display their joint muscle power to the world as a whole, clearly emerging as a major combined force to reckon with, especially by the developed nations of the world lead by the USA.

However, many will strongly feel that interests of smaller and poorer nations of the world were sacrificed in this first global agreement of the century on climate change at Copenhagen.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

Emerging markets and a robust oncology portfolio expected to be the future growth engine of the global pharmaceutical industry… but not without associated pricing pressures.

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When the growth rate of the developed markets of the global pharmaceutical industry started slowing down along with the declining R&D productivity, the emerging markets were identified as the new ‘El-Dorado’ by the global players. At the same time, new launch of anti-cancer drugs, more in number, started giving additional thrust to the growth engine of the industry, at least in the developed markets and for the ‘creamy layers’ of the emerging markets of the world. As cancer is being considered as one of the terminal illnesses, the cancer patients from all over the world, would like to have their anti-cancer medications, at any cost, even if it means just marginal prolongation of life with a huge debt burden.According to a recent study done by the Cancer Research, UK, despite significant decline in the overall global pharmaceutical R&D productivity over a period of time, in a relative yardstick, newer anti-cancer drugs have started coming up to the global market with a much greater frequency than ever before. ‘Pharmacy Europe’reports that 18 percent, against a previous estimate of 5 percent of 974 anti-cancer drugs will see the light of the day in the global market place, passing through stringent regulatory requirements. This is happening mainly because of sharper understanding of the basic biology of the disease by the research scientists.Another study reports that between 1995 and 2007 such knowledge has helped the scientists to molecularly target ‘kinase inhibitors’, which are much less toxic and offers much better side effect profile. Well known anti-cancer drug Herceptin of Roche is one of the many outcomes of molecularly targeted research.

Price of Anti-cancer drugs:

Although in the battle against the much dreaded disease cancer, the newer drugs which are now coming to the market, are quite expensive. Even in the developed markets the healthcare providers are feeling the heat of the cost pressure of such medications, which would in turn impact the treatment decisions. Probably because of this reason, to help the oncologists to appropriately discuss the treatment cost of anti-cancer drugs with the patients, the American Society of Clinical Oncology recently has formed a task force for the same.

The issue is now being fiercely debated even in the developed markets of the world:

In the developed markets of the world, for expensive cancer medications, the patients are required to bear the high cost of co-payment, which may run equivalent to thousands of U.S dollars. Many patients are finding it difficult to arrange for such high co-payments.

Thus, it has been reported that even the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), UK considers some anti-cancer drugs not cost-effective enough for inclusion in the NHS formulary, sparking another set of raging debate.

‘The New England Journal of Medicine’ in one of its recent articles with detail analysis, expressed its concern over sharp increase in the price of anti-cancer medications, specifically.

Is the global pharmaceutical industry in a ‘gold rush’ to get into the oncology business?

Recently ‘The New York Times’ reported some interesting details. One such was on the global sales of anti-cancer drugs. The paper reports that in 1998 only 12 anti-cancer drugs featured within the top 200 drugs, ranked in terms of global value turnover of each. In that year Taxol was the only anti-cancer drug to achieve the blockbuster status with a value turnover of U.S$ 1 billion.

However, in 2008, within top 200 top selling drugs, 23 were for cancer with three in the top ten, clocking a global turnover of over U.S$ 1 billion each. 20 out of 126 drugs recording a sales turnover over U.S$ billion each, were for cancer, impressive commercial growth story of which is far from over now.

How to address this issue?

Experts are now deliberating upon to explore the possibility of creating a ‘comparative effectiveness center’ for anti-cancer drugs. This center will be entrusted with the responsibility to find out the most cost effective and best suited anti-cancer drugs that will be suitable for a particular patient, eliminating the possibility of wasteful expenses, if any, with the new drugs, just because of their newness and some additional features, which may not be relevant to a particular patient. If several drugs are found to be working equally well on a patient, most cost effective medication will be recommended to the particular individual.

Some new anti-cancer medications are of ‘me-too’ type:

‘The Journal of National Cancer Institute’ reports that some high price anti-cancer drugs are almost of ‘me too’ type, which can at best prolong the life of a patient by a few months or even weeks. To give an example the journal indicated, ‘Erbitux for instance, prolongs survival in lung cancer patients by 1.2 months… at a cost of U.S$ 80, 000 for an 18 – week course of treatment.’

However, the manufacturer of the drug later told ‘The Wall Street Journal’ (WSJ), ‘U.S.$ 80,000 is like a sticker price, but the street price is closer to U.S$ 10,000 per month” i.e around U.S$ 45,000 for 18 week course of treatment.

Conclusion:

Even in the developed countries, the heated debate on expensive new drugs, especially, in the oncology segment is brewing up and may assume a significant proportion in not too distant future. India being one of the promising emerging markets for the global pharmaceutical industry, willy nilly will get caught in this debate, possibly with a force multiplier effect, sooner than later.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

The Indian and Global Pharmaceutical Industry – A brief perspective to meet the challenge of change

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A. INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE:
January 1, 2005 ushered in a paradigm shift in the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry with the new product patent regime. Future of the industry, thereafter, will never be the same again as what we have been witnessing since 1970.

Gradually India, which was synonymous to cheaper copycat generic versions of products patented in most of the developed and emerging pharmaceutical markets of the world, is expected to transit through a relatively ‘lull period’ for a shorter duration, before it starts helping to establish India as a force to reckon with, in the pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) space of the world. We have seen some glimpses of the era to come by through initial basic research initiatives of companies like, Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), Piramal Life Science and Glenmark. All such companies are gradually transforming their R&D focus from reverse-engineering to developing new chemical/molecular entity (NCE/NME) or novel drug delivery systems (NDDS).

Opportunities during the paradigm shift:

The low cost base, large English speaking technical talent pool and development of world class R&D facilities of the country will play the role of catalysts in this fast changing process and throw open many new vistas of opportunities for the industry to cash on.

At the same time, generic companies will play even more important global role than ever before. Many of them will no longer remain a local branded generic or generic player, they will open their wings to fly down to the important global destinations. Some others will collaborate with multi-national pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) in their contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS) initiatives. For others, the domestic pharmaceutical market will still remain big and lucrative enough to grow their business.

However, those companies, which will not be able to effectively combat the ‘challenge of rapid changes’ will either perish or be gobbled-up by the big fishes in the consolidation process of the local and global pharmaceutical industry.

Some perspectives:

Though the domestic Indian pharmaceutical industry caters to around 70% of the requirements of pharmaceuticals of the nation, is highly fragmented. The industry manufactures 8% of the global production being the fourth largest producer of pharmaceuticals in terms of volume and employs over half a million people, mostly by around 300 large to medium sized companies in their local and global operations. Although around 6000 companies are engaged in manufacturing, many of them are third party manufacturers. Small manufacturers, who do not conform to ‘Schedule M’ requirements of the Drugs & Cosmetics Act will face or have already started facing trying times.

In terms of value, at present, India with around U.S 7.8 billion turnover, shares just around 2% of the global market with 14th in ranking. McKinsey forecasts that by 2015 India will record a turnover of U.S$ 20 billion and will improve its rank in the global pharma league table to 10th.

Key markets of the domestic Indian companies:

Although India still remains one of the major markets of the domestic Indian pharmaceutical companies, many of them have already established their business in the US, Europe, Latin America, Russian Federation, Africa, Middle East, South East Asia and even in Japan and Australia.

Contribution of India business of different Indian pharmaceutical companies to their global business varies based on their respective business strategies, from 63% of Zydus Cadila to around 16% of DRL, in 2007-08.

US market followed by Europe, is the main revenue earner for most of the large Indian companies. For example Ranbaxy generated around 27% and 20% of their global turnover from the US and Europe, respectively in 2008.

However, for some other companies like Wockhardt, Europe is a more important market than USA. Wockhardt generated around 54% of their global turnover from Europe, in 2007.

Global market entry strategy:

Different Indian companies adopted different market entry and expansion strategies in their globalization process. However, these have been mostly driven mergers and acquisitions.

Is the Indian pharmaceutical industry facing a dire need for an image makeover?

Despite significant contribution of the Indian pharmaceutical industry to provide relatively cheaper generic medicines to address a wide array of ailments of a vast majority of the population, the image of the industry to its stakeholders or even to public at large, is far from satisfactory.

There are some key perceptual reasons for the same. Some of these are as follows:

1. Pharmaceutical industry is making exorbitant profits at the cost of the basic healthcare needs of the common man.

This perception gets further strengthened when, for example, the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) demands crores of rupees from many pharmaceutical companies for overcharging to the patients and notices are served even attaching their properties to recover these dues.

2. The quality of all medicines is not reliable.

This gets vindicated when, for example, the government for its ‘Jan Aushadhi’ program refuses to buy from certain groups of licensed pharmaceutical manufacturers, predominantly on product quality parameters.

3. Some questions, do the pharmaceutical manufacturers in India manufacture medicines following the highest quality norms?

To answer to this question some people argue; if so, why will Indian manufacturers need stringent manufacturing quality certification of the drug regulators of the developed markets to export medicines in the those countries? Why the manufacturing quality certification given to these exporters by the Indian drug regulator is not accepted in those countries?

Moreover, when medicines are imported into India, we accept the quality norms of the drug regulators of the developed countries.

4. Some sections of the media highlight the alleged malpractices by the Indian pharmaceutical companies to promote their mediciness to the medical profession. Such alleged high expenditure towards product promotion is considered by many as avoidable wasteful expenses, the benefit of which can easily be passed on to the patients.

Indian pharmaceutical industry is yet to develop a uniform code of marketing practices, which will be applicable to all the pharmaceutical companies across the board and implement the same effectively, to address such allegations.

Multinational Companies – friends or foes?

To partly salvage the situation, at the same time, one notices open attempts are being made to project the multinational drug companies as demons, the exploiters with a suspicious agenda of thwarting the growth of the domestic companies. In such a scenario, it is indeed perplexing, when one sees the names of the Indian companies at the top of the NPPA lists who allegedly overcharged maximum amount of money to the common man.

What the industry should do jointly:

Under such sad circumstances, the entire industry should come together, take a hard look on itself first and extend its helping hands in public private partnership (PPP) initiatives for the benefit of the civil society.

Such PPP may not necessarily be charitable. It could focus on developing a robust healthcare financing model with industry expertise, for implementation with the government involvement for all strata of society. Or, for example, the industry should come out with a plan, which the US Pharmaceutical trade association – PhRMA has recently proposed to the Obama administration voluntarily on their ‘Medicare’ program, for the senior citizens of America.

For image makeover the name of the game is actual ‘demonstration’ of the good intent and NOT ‘pontification’ of what others should do, highlighting the identified loopholes in the government machineries.

B. GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE:

In the midst of the global financial meltdown, beginning 2009, no one is still able to fathom what impact, if at all, will it leave on to the global pharmaceutical industry.

In the most populous country of the world – China, in April 2009, the government unfolded the blueprints of new healthcare reform measures, covering the entire nation.

Similarly, in the oldest democracy and the richest country of the world – United States of America, President Barak Obama administration expressed their resolve to address important healthcare related issues, as an integral part of the economic reform of the country.

In other developed markets of the world like Europe and Japan intense cost containment pressure is in turn creating significant pricing pressure on pharmaceuticals, triggering the demand of greater use of cheaper generic formulations.

Financial meltdown though eroded the market capitalization of most of the companies; the growth of the global pharmaceutical industry remained unabated till 2008, albeit at a slower pace though. Many markets of the world witnessed a faster generic switch, fuelling higher volume growth of the generic segment of the industry.

Some perspectives:

In 2008 the global pharmaceutical market size was of U.S$ 780 billion, which is expected to grow to U.S$ 937 billion in 2012 registering a 5 year CAGR of around 5.5%. Sales worth U.S$ 253 billion came from just 100 blockbuster drugs, contributing around one third of the global pharmaceutical market.

USA with a retail revenue turnover of U.S$ 206 is the largest market of the world, though currently showing a sharp decline in its growth rate. The growth rate of the US is expected to drop further along with the patent expiry of other blockbuster drugs.

Just three countries of Europe, U.K, France and Germany contributed to 50% of pharmaceutical sales of entire Europe.

Doctors’ are no longer the sole decision maker to prescribe a medicinal product:

Just like in the US, one witnesses a change in the role of the medical professionals as a key decision maker to prescribe medicines for the patients in Europe, as well. More and more, payors like health insurance companies, NHS are assuming that role.

A shift from small molecule pharmaceuticals to large molecule biotech products:

As small molecule pharmaceuticals are coming under intense pricing pressure, the focus of new drug launches is shifting towards more expensive large molecule biotech drugs with much higher margins of profit increasing the treatment cost further.

The brighter side:

Growing middle class population with higher disposable income together with increase spending of the government towards healthcare, in most of these countries, are making the pharmaceutical industry grow at a much faster pace in the emerging markets like, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia, China, India, Turkey, Mexico and Korea. However, the revenue and profit earned by the global companies from the developed markets are still far more than the emerging markets of the world.

Access to healthcare still remains a global issue:

Despite so much of progress of the global pharmaceutical industry, access to healthcare still remains an issue, besides others, even in some of the developed markets of the world. The waiting period of a patient just to get an appointment of the doctor is increasing fast. Even in the US about 47 million of US citizens still are not covered by insurance, besides many more of them who remain underinsured.

Global pharmaceutical industry is still considered a part of the problem:

Despite meeting the unmet needs of the patients through intensive research and development initiatives and various global access programs for the needy and the downtrodden, the civil society all over the world, including in the developed countries, still believes that the pharmaceutical industry is a part of the global healthcare problems, though relatively more in the developing and the least developed economies of the world. These perceptions are mainly due to high costs of patented drugs, high research expenditure for low value added drugs and seemingly unethical marketing practices of the industry across the board with varying degree.

Conclusion:

The pharmaceutical industry, the ultimate savior in the battle against disease, is now passing through a critical phase both locally and globally and both in terms of its image and capacity to deliver newer medicines ensuring their affordable access, the reason of which may vary from country to country.

Be that as it may, the industry has been making significant contribution to the humanity to meet the ever increasing unmet needs of the patients. However, expectations of the stakeholders are also growing and justifiably so. There is no time for the industry, in general, to ponder much now or rest on the past laurels. It is about time to walk the never ending extra mile, for the global patients’ sake.

By Tapan Ray

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.