Monthly Archives: November 2020

Combating Covid Pandemic: When ‘Something Is Better Than Nothing’

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As the new Coronavirus overwhelms the world, since its global outbreak, up until November 29, 2020, over 1,458,305 people have died from this pandemic. Understandably, the Governments in all countries are frantically searching for some robust remedial measures to prevent these unfortunate deaths, besides protecting livelihoods of a vast majority of people.

For this purpose, experts considered effective preventive measures, such as vaccines could help taming this menace, alongside existing personal prevention measures. Accordingly, scientists around the world, have are hard to accelerate development and manufacturing of safe and effective Covod-19 vaccines, within the prescribed guidelines. Equally important is the fact these vaccines must be safe with predictable effectiveness- for all age groups.

The good news is, vaccines are now a distinct possibility in the near future, with the positive interim Phase III clinical trial reports pouring in. It gets reflected in the remark of the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), on November 23, 2020, at the media briefing on Covid-19. He said: There is now real hope that vaccines – in combination with other tried and tested public health measures – will help to end the pandemic.

Interestingly, amid these reports, a lurking fear of many experts also surfaces – on the impact of possible side effects, that Covid vaccine may cause, besides their medium to long term efficacy in human subjects. But, with the mounting number of deaths, near collapse of the global economy, including India, there isn’t any more time to watch and wait.

Apparently, all governments now want some scientifically relevant vaccines, instead of nothing. This article will deliberate on the one hand – an unprecedented achievement, alongside some critical concerns – voiced even by the Indian Prime Minister. Let me begin with the apprehensions, as expressed by some domain experts on some rough edges, as it were, in the process of its development.

Queries on vaccine dosing, efficacy, safety and testing:

On November 23, 2020, AstraZeneca and Oxford reported interim results of their vaccine with the average efficacy of 70% prevention. This sounded good to many, as it falls within the expectations of above a 50% standard that the FDA had set for Covid vaccines. However, the puzzling part in this result was – bigger (standard) doses of the vaccines were less efficacious. The vaccine was only 62% effective in a group that got two full doses spaced about a month apart. But among about 2,700 people who got a half-dose followed by a full, the number rose to 90%, the report highlighted. This incident prompted several questions about the most effective dose of AstraZeneca and Oxford vaccine, including its safety record and the approach to testing. Consequently, apprehensions surfaced whether the Drug regulators will clear it, based on the currently available data.

It now appears, AstraZeneca ‘s Covid-19 vaccine is ‘headed for an additional global trial as the drug maker tries to clear up the uncertainty and confusion surrounding favorable results in its current study.’ Incidentally, in India - AstraZeneca and Oxford vaccine will be manufactured by Pune-based Serum Institute of India (SII) under a collaborative arrangement. Let me now dwell on a broader as aspect in this space.

Could current Covid vaccines become useless in the future?

There isn’t an iota of doubt that developing Covid vaccine in ten months, which otherwise takes around ten years – is an unprecedented achievement. However, there are several other important areas in this space, where pundits have expressed uneasiness through various articles.

One such paper is titled, ‘Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees,’ published in the Nature on March 16, 2020. According to the author, a critical point in this regard is to consider ‘the potential for emerging and re-emerging Coronaviruses to cause future outbreaks.’

This is because, ‘the virus behind COVID-19 might mutate in ways that would make previously effective vaccines and antivirals useless.’ Testing vaccines and medicines without taking the time to fully understand safety risks, could bring unwarranted setbacks during the current pandemic, and into the future. ‘Despite the genuine need for urgency, the old saying holds – ‘measure twice, cut once’, the author commented.

The article concluded by suggesting, ‘any regulatory agency considering ways to accelerate treatments into testing should also weigh up how likely these drugs are to work beyond this particular Coronavirus.’ Moreover, according to the WHO, it’s too early to know if COVID-19 vaccines will provide long-term protection.

Possible side-effects of COVID-19 vaccines:

As people’s hopes swell, expecting Covid vaccines to ultimately end the deadly global pandemic, experts caution about their reported – annoying and unpleasant side effects. The November 12, 2020 paper – ‘Time to Discuss Potentially Unpleasant Side Effects of COVID Shots? Scientists Say Yes,’ published by the Kaiser Health News (KHN), also articulated similar apprehension.

It said, most Covid vaccines, including much publicized ones from Pfizer and Moderna, will require two doses to work, injections that must be given weeks apart, as company protocols show. Scientists anticipate the shots will cause enervating flu-like side effects — including sore arms, muscle aches and fever — that could last days and temporarily sideline some people from work or school.

Even with the Pfizer vaccine, which is touted to be over 90% effective, 1 in 10 recipients would still be vulnerable. There could also be a possibility that a vaccine may not suit everyone due to side-effects, especially the most vulnerable elderly population. That means, at least in the short term, as population-level immunity grows, people can’t stop social distancing and throw away their masks, the report emphasized. Even Prime Minister Modi has informed the nation about possible side effects of Covid vaccines.

PM Modi also warns of possible vaccine side-effects:

Being adequately briefed on the above perspectives related to Covid vaccines, the PM has also warned the nation about the possible side-effects. This is probably to ensure that the unpleasant experience of side-effects, after being administered the first dose, do not catch the population off-guard. Mostly because, no one should miss the second dose of vaccine for the same.

He said, during a recent video conference with the state chief ministers, ‘like many other popular medicines, any COVID-19 vaccine could lead to side-effects in some people.’ Emphasizing that both speed and safety are equally important in launching a vaccine, he assured that ‘the government would only go by science in finalizing a vaccine for the country.’

Is something better than nothing?

In the current situation, it appears so, as there is no other alternatives, except maintenance of social distancing, frequent hand sanitizing and wearing masks while outdoors. The Prime Minister also articulated sans any ambiguity: ‘Whatever vaccine makes it through the world’s certified processes, we will have to accept them and move ahead.’

In the meantime, he urged the states to keep distribution infrastructure, such as cold storages ready, the report said. Interestingly, according to Serum Institute CEO Adar Poonawalla, India could approve the emergency use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine by December 2020.

That said, for mass vaccination of the population across India, another factor that is extremely important to decide which vaccine to go for – is the required storage temperature of various Covid Vaccines under development.

Required cold chain storage temperature of various Covid vaccines:

Required cold chain storage temperatures of various Covid vaccines are as follows:

Company

Type

Doses

Effectiveness*

Storage
Oxford-AstraZeneca Viral Vector (genetically modified virus) Two 62-90%** Regular fridge temp.
Moderna RNA (part of virus genetic code) Two 95% -20C up to six months
Pfizer-BioNTech RNA Two 95% -70C
Gamaleya (Sputnik V) Viral Vector Two 92% Regular fridge temp.

Source: Respective Companies, WHO – BBC News. *Preliminary Phase III results. **Two full doses: 62%, A half dose followed by a full dose: 90%, Average: 70%

From the above table, it appears, from the perspective of continuous cold chain storage facility of vaccines – till these are administered to each person, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Russian Sputnik vaccines will be more practical, despite issues with them. Viewing from this perspective, as well, it appears ‘something is better than nothing’ term can be applied in this area, as well.

Conclusion:

The Covid pandemic continues to worry India, immensely. As on November 29, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,393,039 of Coronavirus cases with 136,733 deaths. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection now looms large in many states.

Unprecedented speed in developing vaccines to effectively combat Covid Pandemic has created some initial issues. Some of these Covid vaccine challenges include, vaccine side effects, its future usefulness, or challenges towards maintaining required stringent cold chain storage requirements, especially in a country like India. Powder version of Covid vaccines, in the future, would possibly resolve this issue for all countries, across the world.

Currently, in tandem with keeping the cold-chain distribution infrastructure ready, at least, for vaccines that require regular fridge temperature, there is a need to make people aware of Covid vaccine side-effects. Otherwise, after getting first shot of a Coronavirus vaccine, many people may get so scared of its side effects that they may not come back for the second dose. If this happens, the very purpose of mass vaccination will get defeated.

However, from the Indian perspective, Covid vaccines that the country, hopefully, will shortly get, may not be the best, out of the available ones, in terms of safety and efficacy. But, for combating Covid Pandemic across India at this juncture, I reckon, the good old dictum still holds good – ‘something is better than nothing.’

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Create Greater Patient–Value To Excel With Repurposed Covid Brands

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Regular introduction of new molecules, line extensions or a Novel Drug delivery System (NDDS) has remained the life blood for pharma to rejuvenate a company’s product portfolio for driving organizational growth. But, Covid’s unprecedented and devastating assault on human lives and livelihoods, has pushed many of these initiatives off track. Covid infection was declared pandemic by the World health organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, compelling the industry to primarily focus on finding solutions for survival, especially in the product development areas.

As the fight against time, the need for survival became so intense, there was no time for pharma companies going back to primary research, to discover new effective Covid specific drug molecules. Vaccines – at the initial stage of the pandemic, were considered by experts could be the only ‘magic bullet’, to get the humanity back again on its feet, after a fierce knockout blow by the virus. As on date, although vaccines seem to be nearer the finishing line of creating adequate initial immunity against Covid, still there are no scientifically proven drugs to predictably cure this infection.

Meanwhile, the focus of all concerned is on the existing drugs, to examine their effectiveness against Covid-19. Accordingly, right from hydroxychloroquine, dexamethasone to a number of already existing antiviral agents were repurposed for Covid treatment, under emergency approval by country regulators, pending detailed clinical trials.

For various critical reasons, experts now feel that the use various NDDS technologies in repurposing existing drugs, would create greater value for patients in Covid treatment. At the same time, this will help pharma companies to create a cutting-edge differentiator for their repurposed brands – being more patient centric. In this article, I shall dwell in this area, starting with the current status and issues with repurposed Covid drugs, as of date.

Current status and issues with repurposed Covid drugs:

According to recent reports, such as one titled ‘Formulation and delivery strategies for COVId-19 drugs,’ published by the AIchE in June 2020, more than 40 different drugs are currently being explored for efficacy against COVID-19. Unfortunately, side effects of many of these repurposed drugs limit their use in most severe cases, besides preventing their use as prophylactics.

A large proportion of repurposed Covid drugs are small-molecule medications, antivirals, and immune-modulating antibodies. These are already approved for other indications (like hydroxychloroquine, ribavirin, favipiravir), or under clinical trials, but not yet approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, FDA (like, remdesivir, galidesivir, leronlimab).

If proven effective, these drugs would offer several advantages from a rapid- response perspective, such as the availability of safety data. In addition, several of these drugs offer broad-spectrum activity that makes it more likely they will remain functional even if the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates. However, there are also exists some critical issues with repurposed Covid drugs.

Some critical issues with repurposed Covid drugs:

Let me cite below two examples, just to drive home the point of some critical medical issues, now existing with these repurposed Covid drugs:

  • Hydroxychloroquine – the malaria drug, when used as directed, commonly produces nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, besides muscle weakness. Importantly, at higher concentrations – only two to three times the daily dose, it can cause potentially fatal acute cardiovascular toxicity. Thus, the possibility of severe side effects makes the drug unattractive as a preventive measure. Drug formulation and delivery strategies, such as controlled release and targeted delivery could expand the use of such existing drugs, the report recommends.
  • The HIV drug combination lopinavir and ritonavir, which is under evaluation as a COVID-19 treatment, has side effects that include diarrhea, nausea, and liver damage. With a half-life of about 4–6 hours, the systemic concentrations can vary by a factor of eight between peak and trough. Developing a controlled-release formulation that maintains the minimum effective drug concentration, could mitigate side effects by reducing the steady-state drug concentration by as much as eightfold and reducing the burden on the liver by 81%, the above study, published by the AIchE in June 2020, highlighted.

At this point, for greater clarity, let me recapitulate what NDDS really means.

NDDS – clinical and marketing relevance:

Novel Drug Delivers Systems or NDDS generally ‘refers to the approaches, formulations, technologies, and systems for transporting a pharmaceutical compound in the body as needed to safely achieve its desired therapeutic effects.’

This process was lucidly explained in a contemporary article, which also inferred that the method by which a drug is delivered can have a significant effect on its efficacy and safety profile.

Yet another paper underscored, ‘if therapeutic agents can be made more efficacious and safer, using an improved drug delivery system, could achieve both –lucrative marketing opportunities for pharmaceutical companies, alongside advancement in the treatment of diseases of mankind.’ Moreover, NDDS can also help maintain the drug concentration in the therapeutic range for a longer period of time and deliver the content to the site of action if required.

Leaving aside the technical details behind these mechanisms let me underscore - that NDDS will be a boon for the repurposing of drugs, was also discussed in detail in an article titled, ‘Role of Novel Drug Delivery Systems in Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19): Time to Act Now,’ published on September 09, 2020.

Some broad categories of NDDS and new initiatives:

For this purpose, some of the broad categories of NDDS may include the following:

  • Sustained- or controlled drug delivery systems provide drug action at a pre-determined rate.
  • Localized drug delivery devices for drug release in the vicinity of the target.
  • Rate – pre-programed drug delivery systems.
  • Targeted drug delivery provides drug action by using carries, which recognize their receptor at the target.

It goes without saying that NDDS mechanism may be used both for new molecules that may eventually be developed, and also for the existing repurposed drugs for Covid treatment.

Some encouraging initiatives of NDDS for Covid drugs:

The encouraging news is pharma initiatives in this regard has already commenced. For example, unprecedented interest in inhaled delivery of antiviral drugs has led to Aerogen’s involvement in multiple COVID-19 drug development initiatives, with more than 15 leading pharmaceutical companies - worldwide.

Several of these collaborations are already in clinical trials. Others are also on track to enter studies on moderately and severely ill COVID-19 patients, the Press Information of Aerogen dated October 22, 2020 highlighted. Let me cite below two more examples in this area, to explain the intensity of work that has commenced in the NDDS space for repurposed Covid drugs.

Covis Pharma’s inhaled glucocorticoid, Alvesco (ciclesonide) has entered Phase III safety and efficacy trial in 400 non-hospitalized patients  -12 years of age and older with symptomatic COVID-19. The product is delivered twice daily via a pressurized metered dose inhaler (pMDI).

Senzer Pharmaceuticals - a UK based company, is also in the process of formulating two specific medicines with antiviral properties, to allow them to be inhaled directly into the respiratory tract. The primary aim is to reduce the number of COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care treatment. Senzer is also using a pMDI for targeted drug delivery of actives through inhalation, as it offers potential advantages over oral intake. These include, ease of administration, assisting early treatment, allowing a lower dose by reducing unwanted side effects and supporting the safety profile of the products.

Experts consider preparations of inhalable particles for local delivery is a simpler approach. This is because the lungs comprise only about 2% of the total body weight, targeted delivery could reduce the amount of drug required by a factor of 50 or more, as compared to oral administration.

Be that as it may, the primary purpose of all such initiatives is to ensure more effective and safer drug delivery to Covid patients. It is now up to the pharma marketing leadership to ascertain how to leverage such NDDS opportunities to deliver extra patient-value, simultaneously creating a cutting edge for marketing these repurposed brands.

Impact of Covid on the NDDS market segments:

The May 11, 2020 report titled, ‘Drug Delivery Systems Market Forecast, Trend Analysis & Competition Tracking – Global Market Insights 2020 to 2025,’ presents some interesting details in this area. It forecasts, the global drug delivery systems market shall register an upswing, expanding at a strong CAGR of 7.0% during the forecast period (2020-2025).

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is expected to further heighten prospects of NDDS, with the number of infections still increasing every day. Consequently, many leading pharma companies have accelerated production of essential drug delivery systems, as stated above. According to the above report, the key growth drivers of the NDDS market include:

  • Targeted drug delivery - being most dominant, is expected to capture nearly half of the global NDDS market, expanding at a healthy CAGR of 6.8% across the above forecast period.
  • Polymeric drug delivery segment is anticipated to be the second-most lucrative area, expanding at a CAGR of 7.3% across the forecast period. The popularity of this delivery type is attributed to its efficiency in localized drug delivery in large amounts, alongside lowering drug toxicity rate. The polymeric drug delivery segment is expected to capture more than 1/3rd of the global drug delivery systems market during the forecast period.
  • Application of nanotechnology is another key growth determinant for the segment. Insertion of nanoparticles help penetrate the targeted tissue in a much better manner. These particles are easily absorbed by cells, facilitating efficient drug delivery.
  • Microneedle drug delivery helps deliver vaccines or other drugs across various barriers.

Conclusion:

The Covid clock keeps ticking. As on November 22, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 9,095,908 of Coronavirus cases with 133,263 deaths. The average number of daily new cases appeared, after the festive season, have started climbing up again. The threat of subsequent waves for further spread of Covid infection now looms large.

In this regard, many experts initially thought that Covid vaccines will be magic bullets to win the war against the new Coronavirus. But in the most recent times, this situation has changed, and it is no longer so – not even Pfizer vaccine. Indian media also deliberated the same on November 05, 2020.

Under this backdrop, Arthur L. Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine, who wrote a 2017 book on vaccine ethics and policy have also made a profound comment. He said recently: “We’re going to have to continue our behavioral efforts - the masking and distancing and the quarantining and the testing and so on — in parallel with vaccination because it would be very, very surprising if we got a very highly effective vaccine first one out of the box.”

Currently, the world doesn’t have any clinically proven new Covid treatment drugs, either. What we have now is a number of repurposed Covid drugs, many of these are in advanced stage of clinical trials. As and when these are approved by the country’s regulators, pharma marketers will have a task cut to excel with those – among many ‘me-too’ types. In this scenario, there will be a critical need to create greater patient-value with a company’s own repurposed brand, where right application of NDDS technology could play a game changing role. The time to keep pondering is over. Time to decide is – now.

By: Tapan J. Ray     

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

 

Covid Vaccine Challenges – Abidance To Defined Health Norms Stays As Lifeguard

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There isn’t even a shade of doubt today that Covid-vaccines are coming. However, some critical questions in this area continue to hang in the air, and are expected to remain so for some more time. Thus, every news on the development of Covid vaccines, particularly in their late stages of clinical trials, fuels billions of hopes and excitement, across the world.

The same thing happened, when Pfizer and BioNTech announced on November 09, 2020, some key details on their vaccine candidate. These include, ‘vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis’ from Phase 3 studies. The release also highlighted, ‘Submission for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) planned for soon after the required safety milestone is achieved, which is currently expected to occur in the third week of November.’

Amid these new developments, it is also now beyond doubt that the pandemic will be brought under control, eventually. Interestingly, none possibly knows when it will happen. There doesn’t seem to be any clearly charted – time-bound pathway in place for the same, either – not just yet. That said, from the overall developments in this area for the past 10 months, especially in India, – two other crucial questions also remain elusive, as follows:

  • Has the country started preparing itself against any Covid-like future biological threats? If so, in what manner?
  • As India conducts the world’s largest  Universal Immunization Program (UIP), how robust is the country’s vaccine supply chain to effectively inoculate every Indian with Covid-vaccine?

I have already deliberated on several aspects of the former question in one of my previous articles, in this write-up. Therefore, this write-up will focus on the second query, with a specific reference to the continued relevance of abidance of the defined health norms for some more time, especially for my pharma industry readers. Accordingly, all astute pharma professionals in India, need to accept this new reality, and rewrite their brand demand generation strategies for the new normal. Let me start with how the cold-chain logistics for vaccines, in general, work in the country.

The cold-chain logistics for vaccines:

A paper published by the BBC News, on November 11, 2020, captured how the cold-chain logistics for vaccines, in general, work almost in all countries, including India. The article is titled, ‘Coronavirus: How soon can we expect a working vaccine?’ The steps involved in this exercise are as follows:

  1. Vaccines transported to destination countries (imported varieties).
  2. Refrigerated trucks for transportation to designated cold rooms.
  3. Distribution in portable and appropriate ice boxes to regional centers.
  4. Stored in electric fridges between 2 degree to 10 degree Celsius (for most of the existing vaccines.)
  5. Carried in portable and appropriate ice boxes to local venues for vaccination to individuals.

Associated challenges:

As the above paper highlighted, some important associated challenges in this space, which are mostly faced by the developing countries, like India, are as follows:

  • Adding a new vaccine to the existing mix could pose huge logistical problems for those already facing a difficult environment.
  • According to prescribed norms, all Vaccines in India requires a storage temperature in the range of +2 degree to +8 degree Celsius, except for Oral Polio Vaccine which need to be stored in the frozen state (-25 degree – 15 degree Celsius) at all stores except PHC/ CHC/Health post. The new vaccine ROTAVAC (116E rotavirus) by Bharat Biotech is being recommended to be stored at (-15 to -25 degree Celsius) till the intermediate stores and to be stored in the range of +2 degree to +8 degree Celsius at the last storage points like PHC/ CHC/Health posts. This has not posed much of a challenge. However, expanding it to cover the entire population of the country can be an “immense task.”
  • It is worth noting, although, AstraZeneca vaccine would need the regular cold chain between 2C and 8C, the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine would need ultra-cold chain – storage at around minus 70C to 80C.
  • ‘Maintaining vaccines under cold chain is already one of the biggest challenges’ that countries face, and this will be exacerbated with the introduction of a new Covid vaccine.
  • Thus, more cold chain equipment will require to be added, making sure that fuel is always available (to run the freezer and refrigerators in absence of electricity) and repair/replace them when they break and transport them wherever you need them.

Curiously, India’s cold-chain logistics that cater to one of the world’s largest immunization programs for children and mothers, may not be enough for Covid-19 vaccination of the country’s 1.3 billion population.

Why India’s cold-chain logistics may not be enough for Covid vaccination:

Before coming to the above question, it is important to note that India is not just the pharmacy of the world, contributing over 20 per cent by value to the global generics market, and over 40 per cent (by volume) of US drugs. According to a recent report of Bernstein Research, Indian vaccine producers, such as, Serum Institute of India supply the bulk – over 40% of the global capacity of 5.7 billion doses annually. Home to some of the world’s biggest vaccine makers, India produces 2.3 billion doses of vaccines yearly, with 74% for export, said the report.

Regardless of this fact, India’s cold-chain logistics may not be enough for Covid vaccination of its entire population, primarily because it is currently geared for children. ‘India Spend’ report of October 13, 2020 titled, ‘India’s COVID-19 Dilemma: Adults Need Vaccines, Supply Chains Geared For Children,’ presents several such interesting facts to ponder over the following points:

  • Being the world’s largest in the Universal Immunization Program (UIP), India targets 26.7 million newborns and 29 million pregnant women every year (55 million people in total, or 4% of the total population). This requires 390 million doses of vaccines, over nine million sessions. But, can this infrastructure effectively handle Covid vaccination of 1.3 billion people?
  • The above question arises, because India has planned to administer 400 to 500 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, mostly to its adult population by the first two quarters of 2021. For this effort, the country will have to nearly double the total number of vaccinations given in the public sector program. Thus, one can well imagine, what a humongous task, it will be for vaccination of 1.3 billion population, at the shortest possible time.

Which is why – although, over the last decades, India has created a primary vaccination infrastructure, and gained enough experience in this area, these may not be enough for Covid mass vaccination program, as stated above.

What it would it entail:

As the above ‘India Spend’ report indicates, this effort will entail:

  • Ramping up capacity to administer vaccines,
  • Expanding and further strengthening cold-chain infrastructure and process of storing and transporting vaccines safely, besides logistics,
  • Ensuring adequate availability of ancillary items, such as syringes, glass vials, and intensive training of healthcare workers.

Without these, even if there is a life-saving vaccine available for COVID-19, people will not have access to effective vaccines, the report reiterates. From this perspective, let’s now have a glance to India’s current vaccine cold-chain logistics and infrastructure.

India’s current vaccine cold-chain logistics:

Currently, most vaccines in India are distributed by the Governments UIP mechanism. Accordingly, for the child immunization program, almost the entire vaccine cold chain is publicly funded and managed.

Going by the official statistics, at present there are in total – about 7,645 cold storages in the countrywith 68 per cent of the capacity being used for potato, while 30 per cent is a multi-commodity cold storage. ‘Most of these cater to farm produce in rural areas with ambient temperature storage and therefore are not pharmaceutical ready.’ As the industry sources indicate, ‘only a small part of the remaining 10 per cent of the industry is organized and capable of playing a key role in the distribution of the Covid vaccine.’

The comprehensive multi-year UIP plan for 2018-22 of India also specifies, while India’s UIP is currently supported by more than 27,000 functional cold chain points, only 750 (3 per cent) are located at or above the district level. The rest is located below the district level.

Nevertheless, the ongoing pandemic prompts India to administer Covid vaccines to its entire population of 1.3 billion population, over the shortest possible period of time. To achieve this goal, the cold chain industry of the country is warming up to handle this vaccine distribution challenge, maintaining the integrity of the cold chain.

The only organized pan-India cold chain player with 31 facilities is, reportedly, Snowman Logistics. Other companies, who are mostly the regional operators in this business, include Coldex, ColdStar, Western Refrigeration and JWL. Yet another report indicates, Maersk, is also poised inking a global logistics deal with US-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate COVAXX, including India. Be that as it may, the bottom-line remains, effective Covid vaccination program would not possibly commence until this gap is successfully bridged.

Conclusion:

Meantime, as on November 15, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 8,814,902 of Coronavirus cases with 129,674 deaths. The average number of daily new cases appeared to have slowed down in the last few weeks, except Delhi. But, the threat of further spread of Covid infection, in waves, remains as it was before.

Robust and high-quality vaccine cold chain logistics in India assumes so much of importance, because of one critical factor – to preserve its effectiveness till administered to an individual. This is regardless of whether a person is located in cities, small towns or in the remote hinterlands of the country. The successful accomplishment of this task is crucial to combat Covid pandemic, until scientists find any predictable long-term solution.

The good news is, according to a new report: ‘Amid cold chain blues, Pfizer looks to powder vaccine formula in 2021.’ BBC News also reported: ‘A group of Indian scientists are working on such a vaccine. The “warm” or a heat-stable vaccine, they claim, can be stored at 100C for 90 minutes, at 70C for about 16 hours, and at 37C for more than a month and more.’

While the world awaits to witness this happening, we all should recognize a current reality. Tough challenges are still looming large on the way of effective Covid mass vaccination programs, especially for all adult population in India. Thus, the gravity for abidance to basic infection avoidance norms – wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding crowded places, stay unchanged. Accordingly, all astute pharma professionals in India, I reckon, need to accept the prevailing reality, and rewrite their brand demand generation strategies for the new normal.

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

Creative Pharma Marketers To Unshackle Covid Fetters

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Pharma industry, just as most others, has started recognizing that the business needs to be brought back to normal, despite Covid fetters. Some early evidences suggest, a new breed of pharma marketers is refusing to get confined to Covid triggered operational limits, without breaching any prescribed safety norms.

These pacesetters no longer grapple with finding right answers to the question – when and how the brand building activities can be brought back to the old normal? Truly speaking, none has its answer, as yet. Covid has the power to strike back, anytime – anywhere, in waves, when the guards are even slightly down. Moreover, as and when vaccines will come, these may not be ‘silver bullets’ for many – throughout a lifetime, at least, in the foreseeable future.

Accordingly, these forerunners are effectively leveraging the art of turning challenges into opportunities. They are conceptualizing new business models for making path-breaking progress in contemporary purpose driven branding exercises. For all pharma marketers, I reckon, this is the moment of truth, when what you do reflects what you really are, in this area. Thus, in this article. I shall deliberate, with examples, how these creative new age pharma marketers are trying to unshackle Covid fetters.

Today’s reality on the ground: 

A number of global surveys on how patients’ have reacted to Covid-19 pandemic with reasons behind the same, are now available. One such study was conducted by Medisafe, during March and April, 2020. Some of its key findings are as follows:

  • More than half of the respondents, especially those with comorbidities, worry about getting Covid infected while accessing to in-person treatments.
  • Over 9 out of 10 respondents were practicing social distancing, as a remedial measure.
  • Consequently, they are missing doctors’ appointments, and many are opting for telehealth wherever appropriate and necessary.

In many situations, such as,  common and repetitive health issues, including some mental health conditions, virtual health care are more convenient. It has also been established during the pandemic that telehealth can deliver similar outcomes at a lower cost, than in-person visits. In addition, remote monitoring of some key health parameters, like heart rhythm, blood sugar, weight, respiratory rate, also help people control their chronic conditions better, and assist clinicians with diagnosis and treatment.

More doctors prefer telehealth, but the majority wants some in-person visits too: 

An interesting study – ‘Want Both In-Person and Virtual Visits with Sales Reps,’ published by Bain & Company on June 02, 2020, ferreted out today’s reality, in this space. It found, prior to Covid, about three-fourths of physicians preferred face-to-face engagement with sales reps. In contrast, today more of them are asking for a reduction in Rep visit frequency and more remote support or virtual approaches. Curiously, a majority still prefers, at least some in-person interaction ‘once the pandemic passes.’

Interestingly, no one seems to know, just yet, when exactly will this pandemic get over. Besides, whether or not Covid will keep coming back in waves, for an indefinite period. Or, any similar or even worse global health crisis, in future, could bring greater disruption for the industry.

Driven by such apprehensions, it is possible that more and more patients will prefer telehealth, expanding access to health care for an increasing number of people. Nonetheless, one should also take into consideration that virtual health care has also some significant limitations, especially those which may lead to serious or life-threatening conditions.

Some key limitations to overcome:

Alongside multiple advantages of telehealth, it has some significant limitations, which can’t be wished away, either. This point was also well articulated in the article – ‘Where Telemedicine Falls Short,’ published in the Harvard Business Review (HBR) on June 30, 2020. The author, who is also a primary care physician gave a number of examples in this regard. For example, in one place he wrote:

‘I have found treatable cancers multiple times in routine exams that would be impossible to replicate in the virtual world. Could a Zoom visit detect a lymph node too firm, a spleen or liver too large, or an unexpected prostate nodule (with a normal PSA)?’ The paper also emphasized: ‘Trust and face-to-face encounters are even more important for patients with complex and intertwined problems.’

Be that as it may, the task to encourage patients, even with serious ailments, for in-person consultation and examination by doctors’ in their clinics, won’t be ‘a piece of cake’ too. On the contrary, it will be rather a colossal exercise.

Why will this task be colossal?

One can get a sense of tough challenges involved in this effort from the IQVIA report titled, ‘COVID-19 Pandemic and the Impact on SEA Healthcare Market.’ Along with other areas, the study captured several details of the above area, specifically for the South East Asia (SEA), as follows:

  • Decrease in patient visits (Out-Patient): 2 out of 3 hospital doctors are experiencing >60% decrease in patient visits.
  • Extended period of time before patient load resumes to normal: ~50% of doctors think that it will take 4 to 6 months to resume normal operations.
  • Increase in prescription duration: ~25% of doctors have 2x their standard prescription duration to reduce patient visits.

The study also observed, ‘in order to reduce the risk of getting infected, patients are reducing their visits to the HCPs.’ Such an unusual situation is unlikely to be mitigated, soon, with any traditional or ‘one size-fits all’ type strategy. Particularly when Covid threat still looms large on the population. As is happening today, even after signs of waning, Covid may return in waves – for an indefinite period. Thus, innovative marketing interventions, backed by actionable insights, are essential to help overcome the fear of getting Covid infected, by both patients and doctors.

How to respond to this situation in a creative way?

The creative marketing response to overcoming the possible barriers on the way, would call for predictive rather than reactive pharma strategies. The game plan not only needs to be purpose drivenfor the marketers, but should also be perceived that way by all concerned. For example, the core purpose of marketing in this scenario, will be to provide a life-saving patient ‘service’, with win-win outcomes.

And the additional ‘service’ in this case is encouragement in-person physician visits during early symptoms of life-threatening health conditions – taking all safety precautions and overcoming ‘paranoia’ of getting infected. The win-win outcomes will include – saving lives, preventing deterioration of the disease condition, and of course, facilitation of the brand demand. The good news is some global pharma majors have already started making progress in this direction.

Promoting doctor visits during the pandemic – an example:

Leaving footprints to follow, some pharma marketers have already started creatively working on it. Let me cite a recent example of this unique initiative. This was reported by Fierce Pharma in its November 02, 2020 issue. The marketing process carries all the required ingredients for excellence, as mentioned above.

It wrote, ‘Pfizer and Bristol Myers Squibb are the latest drugmakers to join the swell of campaigns promoting doctor visits during the pandemic.’ This decision was based on data, showing many people haven’t been going to their primary care appointments for symptoms that may lead to potentially serious conditions.

This initiative is focused on three critical health conditions, namely, atrial fibrillation, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. The rationale for selecting these three indications is, these are all treated by the partners’ anticoagulant Eliquis.

Accordingly, the BMS-Pfizer Alliance launched a campaign to raise awareness and encourage people to seek prompt medical attention. The American campaign was built around the theme – ‘Your symptoms could mean something serious, so this is no time to wait.’ In tandem, the companies also widely communicated through multiple channels that ‘Decreases in Americans’ Primary Care Visits May Lead to Late Diagnoses of Potentially Serious Conditions.’

According to reports, the net result of this creative marketing, so far, is no less than outstanding, as compared to many other pharma players operating in similar situations. ‘Eliquis’ brand sales for the first six months of 2020 topped $4.8 billion, a 21% increase over the same time period last year. Doesn’t this initiative demonstrate that creative pharma marketers can unshackle even Covid fetters?

Conclusion:

Meanwhile, as on November 08, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 8,507,754 of Coronavirus cases with 126,162 deaths. The average number of daily new cases appeared to have slowed down in the last few weeks. But, the threat of further spread of Covid infection, in waves, still looms large in the country.

Most scientists agree – while effective vaccines offer the best chance of reaching zero COVID-19 – eliminating the virus across much of the world, while not unthinkable, could take a significant number of years. Thus, it may be realistic for some time to focus on flattening the curve with stringent control measures, involving efficient contact tracing, testing and isolation, together with social distancing and mask wearing – till it happens, ultimately.

Meanwhile, the business must flourish, even amid a new normal. And this is, in no way, a pipe dream, but a proven reality, as we have seen above. No doubt, this calls for most pharma marketers wearing a fresh thinking cap, equipped with more cerebral power, as it were, to unshackle Covid fetters on their way – effectively.

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.

 

India Being World’s Third largest Covid Vaccine Maker: Will All Indians Benefit?

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Apprehensions on the time of availability notwithstanding, equitable access to Covid vaccines for all, remain the best hope to leash the deadly virus, as the pandemic overwhelms the world. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) ‘Coronavirus Update 37’ of October 06, 2020, as of October 02, 2020, there are 42 COVID-19 candidate vaccines in clinical evaluation of which 10 in Phase III trials.

Recently, the article, published in the Harvard Business Review on April 02, 2020, also flagged this critical area – ‘A Covid-19 Vaccine Will Need Equitable, Global Distribution.’ The paper highlighted: ‘The time to prepare for globally distributing a Covid-19 vaccine in a way that is effective and equitable is now. It will have a long-term payoff by helping to prevent future pandemics, which scientists predict will be more common as the earth’s climate warms.’

Even Bill Gates’ article, published in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) on February 28, 2020, expressed a similar apprehension. The article is titled - ‘Responding to Covid-19 – A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic?’ Gates also articulated: “During a pandemic, vaccines and antivirals can’t simply be sold to the highest bidder. They should be available and affordable for people who are at the heart of the outbreak and in greatest need. Not only is such distribution the right thing to do, it’s also the right strategy for short-circuiting transmission and preventing future pandemics.”

He too urged all concerned to ensure that during a pandemic, vaccines and antivirals aren’t ‘simply be sold to the highest bidder.’ On the contrary, these should be made available, affordable and accessible to all. ‘Not only is such distribution the right thing to do, it’s also the right strategy for short-circuiting transmission and preventing future pandemics,’ he asserted.

Does any authority pay heed to these suggestions? The question remains unanswered. Interestingly, on September 17, 2020 by a Press Release, Oxfam International reported, ‘leading wealthy nations representing just 13 percent of the world’s population have already cornered more than half (51 percent) of the promised doses of Covid-19 vaccine candidates.’ This is regardless of where these vaccines are manufactured, including India.

These prompt one to wonder, ‘Would India’s possible rise as the world’s third largest vaccine manufacturer benefit all Indians, with affordable and equitable access to Covid prevention shots? In this article, I shall dwell in this area.

India emerges as the world’s third largest Covid vaccine producer:

According to August 24, 2020 edition of the Nature publication, if all of the frontrunner candidates of Covid vaccines are approved, more than 10 billion doses could be available by the end of 2021. Most of these vaccines will be made in the North America and Europe. The top Covid vaccine manufacturing countries are estimated to be the United States, followed by the United Kingdom, India, Norway and France, the report highlights.

However, wealthy countries have already struck deals to buy more than two billion doses of Coronavirus vaccine in a scramble that could leave limited supplies in the coming year. For example, as the above Nature article indicates, publicly announced estimated capacity to 2021 of Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine, is 2.94 billion. Interestingly Serum Institute of India (SII) signed an agreement to manufacture over I billion doses in 2021.

Whereas, another report of September 29, 2020, stated that SII will make available 200 million doses by 2021, at $3 dose to a group of at least 62 ‘low- and middle-income countries (LMIC)’ that includes India. This arrangement does not make clear how many of the 200 million doses will be made available in India. Curiously, SII reportedly, is also one of the global partners for the production of Britain’s Covid-19 vaccine on a large scale, once it gains regulatory approval.

Growing ‘vaccine nationalism’ needs to be prevented:

Thus, if one looks at the macro picture, a small group of rich nations, representing just 13 percent of the global population has bought 51 percent of the supply of leading Covid-19 vaccine contenders, according to the above Press Release of Oxfam International.

Many public health experts have expressed grave concern on such developments. They have also articulated in multiple forums that the world is not going to get rid of the pandemic until it gets rid of Covid-19 from everywhere. Terming this approach vaccine nationalism, the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) urged all concerned, at his August 18, 2020 briefing that this needs to be prevented by all, urgently.

No clarity yet, on whether the vaccine will be free for all Indians:

Although, there is no reported ‘vaccine nationalism’ in India, thus far, for understandable reasons, there isn’t any clarity, either, on whether Covid vaccines will be free for equitable access to all in India. As reported on October 27, 2020, Dr. V.K. Paul of NITI Aayog, who heads the Centre’s expert committee on vaccines confirmed this by saying:

“We’ll have more clarity in the weeks ahead when trial data from the ongoing trials (phase 3) of the Serum Institute of India (which is testing the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine) is available. The success of it and the other candidates will determine the availability and the dosage required and then we can discuss financing.”

Interestingly, free Covid vaccination for all in Bihar, has featured in ruling party’s the election manifestos, if they win the recent state assembly poll. This raises a doubt for the common man, whether or not this vaccination will be free to all in other states, as well, where such promises are not being made.

Ambiguity also on how much it will cost to the nation:

As on date, avoidable ambiguity prevails in many areas of Covid-19 vaccination process in India, for various reasons. For example, ‘Will India have Rs 80,000 crore for Covid-19 vaccine,’ asked the top vaccine maker in India, on September 27, 2020. Whereas, as reported on October 23, 2020, ‘the government has set aside about Rs 50,000 crore ($7 billion) to vaccinate Indian citizens.’

The same report also wrote, the Coronavirus vaccine, once available, will be distributed under a special Covid-19 immunization program. The Centre will procure the vaccine directly to make it available to the ‘priority groups’ free-of-charge through the existing network of states and districts. States have been asked not to chart separate pathways of procurement. This is expected to coveraround 25 Crore people by July next year, according to the Union Health Minister of India.

This also appeared in the Bloomberg/Quint article of October 17, 2020. It reported, India is identifying 300 million people who will receive the initial dose of a coronavirus vaccine. Priority will be given to workers in high-risk sectors such as police, health care, sanitation, elderly people and those with co-morbidities. The beneficiaries of vaccine in the first phase will receive an estimated 600 million doses and implementation plan aims to cover over 23 percent of the population.

Assuming that Rs. 50,000 Crore will be the vaccination cost for only 23 percent of the Indian population, what will it cost to nation to vaccinate 100 percent of the population against Covid? How will rest of Indians get access to Covid vaccination? Will the citizens be inoculated sans any out of expenditure for the same? If so, why free Covid vaccination has been promised only for Bihar, in the recent Assembly election, only in case the ruling party returns to power, as stated above?

Humongous logistics challenge for India: 

Even if, India plans to administer Covid-19 vaccine to just 23 percent of the population, covering its high-risk population, across the country, in the first half of 202, it will involve 400-500 million doses. Will SII be able to deliver so many doses by June 2020? However, maintaining uninterrupted ‘cold chain’, in the entire logistics process – including local transportation and storage, wherever required, till these are administered to people, will be a humongous task for India.

While the required storage temperature of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is -20 degree Celsius, some of the most promising candidates, such as, Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccines need to be stored at as low as -80 degrees Celsius, till administered.  

Covid vaccination cost is not just the cost of a vaccine:

To vaccinate 1.3 billion people of India, the Government needs to train in advance, a large number of health workers to accomplish the task. Alongside, the supply chain, including a demanding and uninterrupted countrywide ‘cold chain’ will also need to factor in other costs. These will include, availability of ancillary items like syringes, among others.  The complexity of vaccine logistics further increases manifold, as 70 percent of the country’s population lives in rural India. Thus, the net outlay for Covid vaccination will be much more than a vaccine cost.

What happens, if these are not achieved with military precision, much before vaccine manufacturing commences? In that case, I reckon, it is quite likely that efficacious COVID -19 vaccines may not be made accessible even to 23 percent of the high-risk people, such as police, health care and sanitation staff, elderly people and those with serious co-morbidities.

Conclusion:

The economic, social and health care concern over Covid pandemic continues in India. As of November 01, 2020 morning, India recorded a staggering figure of 8,184,082 of Coronavirus cases with 122,149 deaths. During this health crisis, among several other critical areas, India is also still learning – the hard way, how fragile is its public health care infrastructure. Covid pandemic has possibly caused the worst ever health care catastrophe in the country, due to years of negligence – that continues even today.

Besides above legacy issues, meager deployment of resources, low overall health awareness for Covid, inadequate number of health care personnel, insufficient Covid testing kits to detect the virus and prevent it from spreading, is still playing havoc. Moreover, many epidemiologists continue to suggest that India’s real infection rates are far higher.

In this setting, if, as and when subsequent Covid waves will strike, the number of cases is likely to grow exponentially – again. Thus, inoculating the entire population with Covid-19 vaccines is the most desirable way out, for India to prevent this health calamity from lingering too long. As Mark Feinberg, head of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative in New York City had said in the August 24, 2020 edition of Nature publication: “We’re not going to get rid of the pandemic until we get rid of it everywhere.”

Here comes the importance of equitable access to Covid vaccination for all in India. Although, a number of international organizations, including the W.H.O and Gavi, are working hard to reduce this threat, the concern over inequitable access to Covid vaccines, still remains a real one. Intriguingly, despite India being positioned as the world’s third largest Covid-19 vaccine producer, no one is still sure due to multiple reasons, whether all Indians will benefit from it – probably not even the Government of India.

By: Tapan J. Ray    

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.